Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 3 April 2024.
- Wizard Ratings Results for Tuesday, April 2
- Trainer Profile for Patrick Payne
Wizard Ratings Report - Tuesday, April 2
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Tue 02.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| GEELONG | h8 | - - - - | - - - - | 2 3 3 - | 1 2 1. 2 | 1 1 3 3 | 2 2 2 2 | 1 3 - - | 2 2 2 3. | | | 3 1 1. 0 |
| MOREE | g4 | - - 3. 2. | 2 - - 3 | 1 1 - 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 2. - | - - - 2 | | | | 2 2 0 1 |
| TAREE | s7h8 | 1 2 2 - | 3 3 3. - | - - - - | 1 1 - 1 | 1 3 - - | 1 1 - - | - - - - | | | | 4 2 0 1 |
| WARWICK | s5g4 | - - - 2 | 3 3 - 3 | 3 2 2 1 | 3 - - 1 | 3 - 3. - | - - 2 1 | - - - 3 | 3 - - - | | | 0 0 0 3 |
The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), and Wexpk (e) in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Trainer Profile - Patrick Payne
Patrick Payne has been a licenced trainer since 2008. Currently his stable is located on a private 320 acre training property at Plumpton some 40k west of Melbourne. Plumpton features a great natural environment for the horses as well as housing the latest in training facilities, including 2400m grass and dirt tracks and an incline track.
Patrick comes from a family steeped in the world of thoroughbred horse racing. His father, Paddy Payne, remains active with a couple of horses in work. Sister Michelle Payne, the only female jockey to win the Melbourne Cup, is establishing herself as a trainer. Another sister, Therese Payne, was a trailblazer for female jockeys in Victoria. In fact, seven of Patrick's siblings were licenced jockeys.
Patrick was a gifted jockey, unfortunately a natural heavy-weight, and eventually that weight issue caused him to hang up the raceday saddle and turn to training. During his career he rode many winners, including numerous Group race winners, with his career highlight being the G1 Cox Plate victory on Northerly. He has carried on this raceday success in his training career with Dunkel winning the G1 S.A. Derby in May last year.
In the 2022-2023 season Patrick had a great 12 months and ranked 6th in the Victorian metropolitan trainer's premiership, just behind stables with larger numbers in work. In the current season he remains prominent in the top 20 for both metropolitan and country racing
Although Patrick is sometimes identified as a 'specialist' jumps trainer, mainly because of his success as a trainer in top class hurdle and steeplechase races, a survey of his record of the past five years shows that fewer than 7% of his runners were in jumps races.
Website: https://www.patrickpayneracing.com.au/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/patrickpayneracing/
Patrick Payne - Watch and Wait
With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.
Some key metrics for Patrick Payne follow. All results listed were profitable on flat stakes and show the win percentage and the impact value for two odds ranges.
Days since Last run
22-29 days: 26.1% 1.3iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
30-60 days: 29.0% 1.4iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
- The 30-60 days break is particularly significant with 3yo gallopers
Days since last win
8 14 days: 36.2% 1.7iv (odds range to $9.90)
22-29 days: 31.0% 1.5iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
- It is worth noting that in the $0.0 to $9.90 range, with 3yo specifically, the figures are:
8-14 days: 37.9% 1.4iv (odds range to $9.90)
15-21 days: 32.4% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)
22-29 days: 33.3% 1.2iv (odds range to $9.90)
30-60 days:30.8% 1.1iv (odds range to $9.90)
- For 4yo+ gallopers 8-14 days is the best performer
Finish position last start
Won last start: 28.3% 1.3iv (odds range to $9.90)
Won last start: 27.4% 1.3iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
- 3yo gallopers outperform: 34.5% 1.3iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
All-weather racing
ALW 30.0% 1.4iv (odds range to $9.90)
ALW 31.6% 1.6iv (odds range $2.00 to $5.90)
- It is the 4yo+ gallopers who are the major contributors to this result.
Wizard Plus connection
Patrick Payne's stable outperforms when a runner is in the $2.00 to $5.90 odds range near the close of betting and is a featured runner in either the Filter or Negatives categories in the Wizard Plus Plus Panel, especially so if the horse is backed in the last 30 minutes.
Also
One noteworthy finding is the poor value usually offered about Patrick's runners in jumping races. They appear to be heavily over-bet and overall deliver poor returns.
Patrick Payne - Jockey combinations
The table below examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
The overall stats for Patrick Payne in this $2.00 to $5.90 odds range:
- When the Wizard Rating (Wrat) is 100 = 22.9%
- When the Starting Price Favourite = 28.1%
- All runners in the $2.00-$5.90 odds range = 24.3%
| From 1.8.22 to 1.4.24 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2-5.9 | | | |
| Patrick Payne with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Aaron Kuru | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Alana Kelly | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40.0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Alana Livesey | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Melham | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Billy Egan | 18.2% | 6 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 31.7% | 13 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 22.1% | 21 | 14 | 22 | 38 |
| Blake Shinn | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brad Rawiller | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Beau Mertens | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Ben Allen | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Cory Parish | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Christine Puls | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Craig Williams | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 28.6% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Campbell Rawiller | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Celine Gaudray | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Chris Mc Carthy | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Dakotah Keane | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Daniel Stackhouse | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16.7% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Dean Yendall | 25.0% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Damian Lane | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Ethan Brown | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Harry Coffey | 12.5% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 21.1% | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| Harry Grace | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jake Duffy | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jordan Mallyon | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jake Noonan | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| John Allen | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Lorensini | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Hill | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jacob Opperman | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Jye Mc Neil | 66.7% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 37.5% | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Luke Nolen | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lachlan Overall | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Laura Lafferty | 11.1% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 25.0% | 4 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Lauren Burke | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lee Horner | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan McNeil | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Luke Campbell | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Dee | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark Zahra | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Cartwright | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michelle Payne | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rhys Mc Leod | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 40.0% | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Rose Hammond | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Shayne Cahill | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Samuel Payne | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tahlia Hope | 50.0% | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 42.9% | 6 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Tayla Childs | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Teodore Nugent | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Todd Pannell | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16.7% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Tom Prebble | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 36.4% | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Wiremu Pinn | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Gordon | 11.1% | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12.5% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 19.2% | 5 | 6 | 2 | 13 |
The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia.
The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com