Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 7 April 2024.
- Trainer Shorts - Dominic Sutton
- Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, April 6
Trainer Shorts - Dominic Sutton
Dominic Sutton trained his first metropolitan winner when Feroce won at Caulfield yesterday. It was only the 7th time he had saddled up a horse being trained in his own name. When Feroce scored this second win in two outings it made Dominic's own record to date, 2 wins from just 7 starters.
Dominic comes from a racing family in the UK. He arrived in Australia aged 19 and quickly found a place in our thoroughbred industry. First, he worked for 18 months with the Chris Waller stable, mainly riding trackwork, and then moved on to the Leon and Troy Corstens stable where he became foreman and then later, assistant trainer. He was with the Corstens for some 8 years. Passing up the attractive opportunity to partner with Troy he chose to fulfill a long-held ambition to establish his own stable.
Originally located at Pakenham the stable has recently relocated to Ballarat. He has been active in preparing the 11 horses he has in work as well as adding to those numbers with some apparently quality purchases in the UK (his father Nick Sutton, a successful national hunt trainer in the UK, has been instrumental in this); and at domestic and NZ sales, looking for younger stock. Leading international bloodstock agent John McKeever, a close friend of the Sutton family, has been closely involved in this process.
It looks like the stable will have a roster of some 20 or so horses in the relatively near term and that will give Dominic something with which to work.
In one month, Dominic has progressed from his first ever runner (Rebadge at Moonee Valley on March 8) to training a back-to-back winner, and that horse winning a Saturday metropolitan race. That is a very good start to what could be a successful training career here in Australia.
Note: Having had only seven runners to date means there is no data available to assess performance patterns.
Wizard Ratings Results for the meetings on Saturday, April 6
The table below shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order.
Table - Wizard Ratings Results for Saturday, April 6
| Sat 06.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| ASCOT | g4 | 1 3 3. - | - - - - | 1 1 - 3 | - 3 - 3. | 1 1 2 2. | 3 3. 3. - | - 2 - - | 3 2 - 3. | 1 1 - 2. | | 4 3 0 0 |
| AVOCA | s6 | 1 3 3 - | 2 2 1 - | 1 1 1 - | - - - - | - - - 2 | 2 - 1 1 | 1 1 2 3. | 2 2 2. - | - - - 1 | | 3 2 3 2 |
| CAULFIELD | s5 | 3 2 3 3 | - - - - | - - 2. 1. | 1 1 3 - | - - - - | 1 2 - - | - - - - | - 2 2 1. | - - - - | - - - - | 2 1 0 2. |
| COONABARABRAN | h9h8 | 2 1 - - | - - - - | - - 2 - | 2 3. 1 2 | 1 - 1 - | - - - - | | | | | 1 1 2 0 |
| EAGLE FARM | s6 | 3 - - - | 1 1 - - | - - 3. 3. | 1 1 2 2. | - 3. 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 - - | 2 - 1. 1 | 3 2. 1 2. | 1 1 1. - | 4 4 3. 1 |
| GOLD COAST POLY | aq | 1 2 2 1 | - 3 - - | 1 1 1 2 | - - 1 1 | - 2 3. - | 1 2 1 2 | 1 1 - - | - - 2. - | - - - 1 | | 4 2 3 3 |
| MORPHETTVILLE PARKS | g4 | - - - 1 | 1 2 1 2 | - 2 3. 2. | 3 2 - - | - - - - | - 2 2 - | 1 2 1. - | - 3 3. - | - 3 2 - | | 2 0 2. 1 |
| NEWCASTLE | h9s7 | - 3. 3. 3. | 1 1 2 1 | 2 1 - 2 | 1 1 2 3 | - 2 - 2 | 3 1 2. - | 3 - 1. - | - 3 2. - | - - - - | | 2 4 1. 1 |
| PIONEER PARK | g | 3 2 - 2. | - 3 - 3. | - 3 - 3 | - - - 3 | 1 1 1 3 | 1 1 1 1 | 1 - 2 - | - - - - | | | 3 2 2 1 |
| RANDWICK | h10h8 | 1 1 1. 1 | 2 1 3 - | 3 - 1 2 | 3 - 3. - | - - 3 - | - - 3 3 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 1. | - - - - | 2 3 3. 2. |
| TOOWOOMBA | s7h9 | 1 1 2 1 | - - 3 1 | - - 3. - | 2 2 1 3. | - - - - | 2 3 2 - | 1 2 2 2 | | | | 2 1 1 2 |
Header w m h e = Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk
The table above shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), and Wexpk (e) in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:
.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat
.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod
.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)
.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk
As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:
.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat
.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod
.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp
.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater
With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.
Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
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Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com