Wizard Daily Report and Research Tuesday, 9 April 2024.

• Trainer Profile of Tony Gollan
• Wizard Ratings Results for Monday, April 

Trainer Profile Tony Gollan

Tony Gollan grew up with horses from an early age, in and around his father Darryl Gollan's Toowoomba stable. Despite some sobering advice from his father about the trials and tribulations that would follow, Tony took out a trainer's licence when he was just 20, and started with a handful of horses, initially in stables at Toowoomba. This was in 1999. By September of that year he had trained his first metropolitan winner, Nova Serrure.

In the early 2000's the going was tough. However, some initial success encouraged Tony to obtain a "visiting trainers" permit to train at Eagle Farm. In Brisbane things did not go entirely to plan and with the licence lapsing he relocated his team to the Gold Coast. More tough times followed, and it was then Tony decided to return to Toowoomba and seek out the support and guidance of both his father and legendary trainer, Jim Atkins. The year spent with these two men was pivotal, and in 2003 Tony set out again as a Toowoomba-based trainer in his own right.

Lady Luck was smiling when he was given a filly to train that would have a major impact on his career. The filly was Temple Spirit, and Tony trained her to win 8 of her 16 starts. But that was not the end of her contribution. She produced two offspring that Tony was to train on to Group 1 success, Temple of Boom (The Galaxy in 2012) and Spirit of Boom (William Reid Stakes in 2014, and Doomben 10,000 in 2014). Other Group 1 winners trained by Tony have been Krone (Coolmore Classic in 2021), Vega One (Kingsford Smith Cup in 2021), and Jonker (Manikato Stakes in 2021).

In 2012 Tony relocated again to Eagle Farm, this time with a much happier outcome. Initially bringing 8 of his better horses with him to occupy his 30 boxes, he quickly built his stable into the winner-producing machine that it is today, now occupying 90 boxes. Indeed, by his second year of Eagle Farm operations he was the Brisbane Trainer Premiership winner and has remained so for the last 10 years. His record shows that in 2012-2013 he was 4th in the Premiership with 28 city winners, first with 56.5 in 2013-2014, and by 2022-2023 his dominance was such that he prevailed with 140 city winners.

His career clearly shows the dedication and work ethic of Tony, his ability to manage and motive a staff, and his undoubted ability to select, prepare, and place his horses. It is easy to see Tony adding another 10 years to his Brisbane Trainers Premiership tally.

Tony Gollan - Watch and Wait

With some trainers there are indicators that are especially worth noting. It is a matter of watching and waiting for the right conditions occur. It might be that the trainer out-performs with runners having their first start after a spell, or in sprint races rather than over longer distances, or backing up for a repeat win in a given time period. When these 'key metrics' are in play it is worthwhile paying particular attention to the runner.

The following information is based on an analysis of results delivered by runners who started at odds less than $10.00. All "out-performing" results reported below were flat-stakes profitable over the past 5 years and show the win percentage and the impact value.

2YO horses

Days since last run: 15-21: 38.7% 1.5iv

When winner at last start: 40.0% 1.5iv

General comment:

The 2yo last-start-winners have done best when backed up within 8 to 21 days.

3yo horses

Having first race start: 30% 1.2iv

Days since last win: 30 to 60 days: 29.8% 1.4iv

General comment: 

• have performed below par (21%) when running as last start winners
• do best when the Wizard Field Strength is between -2kg to +2k
• do best when the distance change is between -300m and +300m

4YO and older horses

Days since last run: 15-21: 26.2% 1.1iv

Days since last win: 30 to 60 days: 27.5% 1.2iv

Distance change: -300m to -101m: 31.9% 1.4iv

General comment:

• overall better performed to 1600m, rather than over longer
• to date have done best when the distance change is between -300m to +300m
• do best when the Wizard Field Strength is between -2kg to +2k
• do better when coming off a 2nd or 3rd last start rather than last start win

Tony Gollan - Jockey combinations

The table below examines the trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:

• When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
• When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90

The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia. 

The period covered is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season. (Older results for trainer-jockey combinations not really relevant.)

• If you have a particular trainer or jockey you would like profiled or snapped please feel free to drop me a line at: Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Wizard Ratings Report for the meetings on Monday, April 8

The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Header: w m h e =  Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com