Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 11 April 2024.
- Wizard Ratings and Track Conditions
- Wizard Ratings Report - Wednesday, April 10
Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions
In the first three days of this week 11 of the 14 meetings rated by the Wizard have been run on a soft or heavy track.
The following table shows how each of the four ratings analyses in the Wizard (Wrat) and Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) have performed under different track conditions.
The track conditions, for the 41,000+ races rated by Wizard since 1 August 2021, are categorized as:
- Good 1-4
- Soft 5-7
- Heavy 8-10
Table - Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions
| Rating | G 1-4 | G 1-4 | G 1-4 | S 5-7 | S 5-7 | S 5-7 | H 8-10 | H 8-10 | H 8-10 |
| | Races | Wins | Win % | Races | Wins | Win % | Races | Wins | Win % |
| Wrtat | 24,464 | 6,511 | 26.6% | 12,868 | 3,340 | 26.0% | 4,300 | 1,109 | 25.8% |
| Wmod | 24,364 | 6,189 | 25.4% | 12,812 | 3,205 | 25.0% | 4,264 | 1,052 | 24.7% |
| Whcp | 21,163 | 4,543 | 21.5% | 11,147 | 2,240 | 20.1% | 3,763 | 831 | 22.1% |
| Wexpk | 21,514 | 3,223 | 15.0% | 11,320 | 1,609 | 14.2% | 3,834 | 608 | 15.9% |
It is clear from this table that all four ratings methodologies are equally reliable under all track conditions, with a less than 1.0% variation as the underfoot conditions vary from good to heavy, except when comparing Whcp good to soft where the variation is negative 1.4%.
It is interesting to note that the pure weight handicapping approaches of Whcp and Wexpk actually improve the strike rate on heavy tracks. I have no ready explanation for this, but it is a result from a large number of races, so it is unlikely to be a chance result.
Wizard Ratings Report - Wednesday, April 10
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Wed 10.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| GAWLER | s5 | - - - - | 3 3 1 2 | 3 3 1 2. | - 2 - - | 1 - - - | - - 2 - | 2 - - - | | | | 1 0 2 0 |
| GOSFORD | s7 | - 2. 2. 2. | 1 2 1 - | - - - 3 | - - 1. - | - - 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 - 1 | 3 2 - - | | | 2 1 2. 1 |
| IPSWICH | s5 | - - - - | 3 3 1 3. | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | 1 1 2. - | - - 3 - | - - 3. - | 3 1 - - | 3 - - - | | 2 3 2 0 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5g4 | 2 - 2. - | 3 1 2. 3. | - - - - | - 3 2. 1 | - 3 - - | 1 1 - - | 2 1 3. 1. | 3 2 3 3. | | | 1 3 0 2. |
| PINJARRA | g4 | - - - - | 1 - 2 1 | - - - - | 1 2 2 - | - - - - | 1 1 1 - | - - 2 - | 1 1 1 2 | | | 4 2 2 1 |
| SANDOWN-LAKESIDE | s6 | - - - - | 1 - - - | - 3. 3. 3. | - - - - | - - - 3 | 2 2 1 1 | 1 1 3. - | - - - 3 | | | 2 1 1 1 |
Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results
Warren - Wiz-Ed
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Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com