Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 12 April 2024.
- Wizard Ratings and Track Conditions - Location
- Wizard Ratings Report - Thursday, April 11
Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions - Metropolitan, Provincial, Country
In the first four days of this week 14 of the 18 meetings rated by the Wizard have been run on a soft or heavy track.
The following table shows how the Wizard Rating (Wrat) has performed under different track conditions across metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks.
The track conditions, for these 41,000+ races rated by Wizard since 1 August 2021, are categorized as:
- Good 1-4
- Soft 5-7
- Heavy 8-10
Table - Wizard Ratings and the Track Conditions by Location
| Wizard Rating | G 1-4 | G 1-4 | G 1-4 | S 5-7 | S 5-7 | S 5-7 | H 8-10 | H 8-10 | H 8-10 |
| Wrat | Races | Wins | Win % | Races | Wins | Win % | Races | Wins | Win % |
| Metropolitan | 5,887 | 1,519 | 25.8% | 2,927 | 744 | 25.4% | 855 | 216 | 25.3% |
| Provincial | 8,006 | 2,160 | 27.0% | 4,595 | 1,170 | 25.5% | 1,719 | 453 | 26.4% |
| Country | 10,571 | 2,832 | 26.8% | 5,346 | 1,426 | 26.7% | 1,726 | 440 | 25.5% |
The figures show that Wrat performs in a similar manner under all track conditions, with a maximum 1.5% variation being for provincial soft going as compared to good going.
It is interesting to note that this analysis confirms what other Wizard Reports have shown in the past: Results on provincial and country tracks mostly outperform those achieved at metropolitan tracks. I believe there are a number of factors contributing to this result, with the key factors being:
- Provincial and country races often lack the depth of quality across the field compared to those in the city; therefore, they tend to be less competitive.
- The better trainers on the outside circuit are as competent as the majority of their city counterparts and their horses are well prepared and well placed.
- The best regional jockeys are fully capable and ride as well and as consistently, relative to their local opposition, as do the best of their city counterparts
- Wizard devotes as much time analysing and after-race Q-rating provincial and country race meetings as it does city races; they are not treated as if they are of lesser importance.
(Note: Yesterday's Daily Report showed how each of the four ratings analyses in the Wizard (Wrat) and Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) have performed under different track conditions.)
Wizard Ratings Report - Wednesday, April 11
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Thu 11.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| ALBANY | g4s5 | 1 1 1 1 | - - - 1 | 3 2. - 2 | 2 1 1 1 | 1 1 1. - | 2 2 1 1. | - - - - | | | | 2 3 4. 4. |
| KYNETON | s6s5 | 1 2 1 3 | 1 1 1 2 | 2 2 1 3 | 1 1 1. 3 | - 3 2. - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - 1 | | | 3 2 4. 1 |
| PAKENHAM | s6s5 | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | - - - - | 1 2 - - | - 3 - 3 | - - - 3 | 1 1 - - | | | 2 1 0 0 |
| WYONG | g4 | 2 - 1 1. | 2 2 2 3 | - - - - | 1 2 2 - | - 3 3 - | 2 2 1 1 | 3 2 - - | 3 2 - 2. | - - - - | | 1 0 2 2. |
Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com