Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 13 April 2024.
- Race Favourite and Track Conditions - Running Style
- Wizard Ratings Report Friday, April 12
Race Favourite / Running Style and the Track Conditions
In the first five days of this week 18 of the 25 meetings rated by the Wizard have been run on a soft or heavy track.
The following table shows how the Starting Price Race Favourite has performed under different track conditions, categorised by its running style.
The track conditions are categorized as:
- Good 1-4
- Soft 5-7
- Heavy 8-10
The running styles are categorised as:
- Front-runner
- On-pace
- Midfield
- Backmarker
Table - Race Favourite /Running Style and the Track Condition
| Starting Price | G 1-4 | G 1-4 | G 1-4 | S 5-7 | S 5-7 | S 5-7 | H 8-10 | H 8-10 | H 8-10 |
| Favourite | Races | Wins | Win % | Races | Wins | Win % | Races | Wins | Win % |
| Front-runner | 2,350 | 910 | 38.7% | 1,103 | 395 | 35.8% | 346 | 126 | 36.4% |
| On-pace | 9,959 | 3,527 | 35.4% | 5,152 | 1,824 | 35.4% | 1,679 | 596 | 35.5% |
| Midfield | 7,923 | 2,732 | 34.5% | 4,253 | 1,426 | 33.5% | 1,430 | 471 | 32.9% |
| Backmarker | 3,346 | 1,168 | 34.9% | 1,830 | 593 | 32.4% | 624 | 203 | 32.5% |
The figures show that there is some minor disadvantage suffered by a race favourite if it runs as a backmarker. The favourite who is a frontrunner is best placed when the tracks is rated "good", 1-4.
Wizard Ratings Report Friday, April 12
The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Fri 12.04.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | meeting |
| | SOT | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | wmhe | w m h e |
| CANBERRA | s6 | - - - - | - 2 - - | - - - 2. | 1 1 1. - | 2 1 2 - | - 3 3 - | - - - - | 1 1 - - | | | 2 3 1. 0 |
| CRANBOURNE | s5 | 1 1 2 1 | 1 1 1 2 | - - - - | 1 - - - | - - - 3 | - - - - | - 2 - - | - 2 3 - | | | 3 2 1 1 |
| DARWIN | g | 3 - - - | 2 2 - 3. | 3 2. - - | - - - 2 | 1 1 3 - | | | | | | 1 1 0 0 |
| GEELONG | g4g | 3 2 1 1 | - 2 - - | 1 1 - 1 | - - - - | 2 3 1 - | 1 1 - 2 | - - 3 - | - - - 3. | | | 2 2 2 2 |
| MACKAY | g4 | - 2 - - | - 2 - 2. | - - - - | 3 - 2 - | 3 3 3 - | 1 1 - 3 | 2 1 3. - | | | | 1 2 0 0 |
| SUNSHINE COAST | h8 | - - - - | 2 2 - - | - - - - | - - 2. 2. | - - 3. - | 3 - 3 - | - - 3. - | | | | 0 0 0 0 |
| WELLINGTON | s6s5 | - - - 3 | 1 1 3. 2 | 2 2 - 2 | 2 2 1 1 | - - - - | - - 2. - | - - - 1 | 3 2 1 - | | | 1 1 2 2 |
Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com