Wizard Daily Report and Research Mon, 30 October 2023 R&R posted at noon daily

• Welcome to the new everyrace.com website and its new-look Wizard and its all new Wizard Plus. 
• Wizard Plus - Wizard Watch Morning Movers, a new insight into what could be the days best backed runners.
• Research - Australian Trainers examining the top trainers around Australia and how they perform in different locations and under different conditions.

.Welcome to the new-look everyrace.com

There are many changes to everyrace.com and we hope you will take the time to explore the site and take advantage of the racing information now available to you daily. Also, through this Daily Report we aim to help you get the most out of the Wizard and Wizard Plus and make your racing more profitable and pleasurable.

If you have any questions, any comments, any suggestions, anything at all that you would like to communicate to us, please feel free to telephone in normal business hours (02 6251 6538) or email us at support@everyrace.com.

Wizard Plus analysing and reporting on significant early betting action

As well as providing Wizard Plus users with an unrivalled insight into the ratings and form history details of every runner, Wizard Plus also provides a unique insight into significant betting market action each race morning via the Wizard Watch Morning Movers report which is made available through Wizard Plus around 11:30am each race day.

The Wizard monitors race morning price changes and betting volume trends over the first 3 hours of race day betting to determine which horses are anticipated to run above earlier pre-post expectations and which horses have had their higher probabilities confirmed.

The Wizard Watch Morning Movers report makes this information available exclusively to Wizard Plus users. This information can be used in conjunction with traditional ratings and form analysis, or those horses identified as the significant Morning Movers can be supported on their own merits. 

More information about Wizard Watch Morning Movers can be found here.

An example, showing the Wizard Watch report from Sunday, October 29, is available here. 

Wizard Research - Australian Trainers analysed

This is the first in a series of articles on the best performing trainers in Australia on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks. Many of the names will be familiar to you, but there are others who are just as successful (in terms of strike rate) who simply fly under the radar. This series of articles will, not only identify the high achievers, it will also report on those situations where these trainers even out-perform their normally excellent results.

Today we look at the top 20 trainers Australia-wide, in terms of race wins, for the 2022-2023 racing season. From tomorrow we will look at the top twenty trainers on a state by state basis, and from next week we will begin to discuss the special circumstances in which they out-perform.

One thing to note about the top twenty stats is that there is no differentiation between provincial and country racing in Victoria, as there is in all other states. Historically, Victorian racing has been categorised as either metropolitan or country. This is why in the top twenty listing, a stable such as the Ciaron Maher and David Eustace training partnership has no provincial stats, just metropolitan and country. (I believe Racing Victoria has now adopted the metropolitan-provincial-country classification and that should be reflected in future top twenty listings.)

As noted above, as interesting and informative as these top twenty listings are, there is much more to trainer statistics than the mere numbers of wins and win percentage. As we delve deeper into an individual trainers statistics we can find circumstances where they outperform their overall record by a substantial margin.

Just one example. Across the 2021-2023 seasons the Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott stable had 212 horses rated as 100 pointers by the Wizard that started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90. They won 64 races, returning a good strike rate of 29% but were a losing proposition at level stakes. However, there are situations where these Gai/Adrian 100 pointers can be profitably supported. With this stable, the betting market is a key indicator, and where that condition is met, the strike rate increases to 39% and the profit on turnover is more than 20c in the dollar.

Knowing when to bet and what to bet are keys to profitable wagering. The trainers we will discuss in this series have achieved flat stake return on investment (ROI) in excess of 100% in some circumstances, and consistently in the 30% to 50% range.