Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 9 July 2024.
- Jockey & Trainer combinations and profile (Declan Bates)
- Trainer & Jockey combinations and profile (Henry Dwyer)
- Wizard Ratings Results for Monday, July 8
Jockey & Trainer combinations and profile (Declan Bates)
Declan Bates is an Irish-born jockey who has found success in Australia after relocating here some nine years ago. He started his career as a jumps jockey in Ireland in 2012, but in 2013 switched to flat racing in the UK. Since moving to Australia in 2015, Declan has enjoyed considerable success and has ridden more than 400 winners.
Declan has ridden Group 1 winners, with his most recent Group 1 success being Pride Of Jenni from the powerful Ciaron Maher stable. Her amazing front-running win in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes owed much to his riding skill and tactics. Before Pride Of Jenni it was Begood Toya Mother in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes in 2019.
Declan is obviously more than a "journeyman jockey" and seems destined to continue riding successfully in Australia during his 30's and 40's. Currently he is the top 20 in the Victorian Jockey Premiership on 65 wins (10.8%). I would expect, as he gains better quality rides as a result of recent successes, that the strike rate will better reflect his ability.
The following table examines jockey-trainer combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
| From 01/08/2022 To 08/07/2024 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2.0-5.9 | | |
| Declan Bates with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Archie Alexander | 22.2% | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 35.0% | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 26.3% | 15 | 10 | 13 | 19 |
| Ciaron Maher | 16.7% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 44.4% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 31.6% | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| P A Preusker | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 38.5% | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| A & S Freedman | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 20.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Aaron Purcell | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Amy & Ash Yargi | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Andrew Noblet | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12.5% | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| Archie Alexander | 22.2% | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 35.0% | 7 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 26.3% | 15 | 10 | 13 | 19 |
| Ben & Will & Jd Hayes | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 25.0% | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Ciaron Maher | 16.7% | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 44.4% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 31.6% | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| D M Bowman | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| D O'Sullivan | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Henry Dwyer | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| L Smith | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Leon & Troy Corstens | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| M D Moroney | 25.0% | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| Matthew Cumani | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50.0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Mitchell Freedman | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 40.0% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ms C Alderson | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ms D Chapman | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ms J Scott | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ms M Ballantine | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| N Blackiston | - | - | - | - | - | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| P A Preusker | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 38.5% | 5 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| P Chow | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Robert Hickmott | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| T & C McEvoy | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 50.0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 18.8% | 3 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Thomas Carberry | 0.0% | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40.0% | 4 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
The statistics cover the jockey's rides throughout Australia, with combinations that have 5 wins or more highlighted separately as well as being included in the body of the table. Included in the table are only those stables for which the jockey has registered at least one win in the $2.00 - $5.90 odds range during the period covered which is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season.
Trainer & Jockey combinations and profile (Henry Dwyer)
Through his father Michael and his grandfathers, who were enthusiastic punters, Henry developed an early interest in the racing.
When at Melbourne University Henry found jobs working for Russell Cameron and Robert Smerdon at Flemington. After completing his degree Henry elected to spend 12 months working at Ealing Park Stud, at Euroa. Then off to Marcus Oldham College, which is an agricultural, equine and farm management tertiary education institution near Geelong. Once his term at Marcus Oldham was completed, he re-joined Robert Smerdon's operation at Caulfield.
Then came an offer to become assistant trainer to Robert Hickmott who was training for Lloyd Williams. Started at Macedon Lodge in February of 2012. With Lloyd's blessing Henry went on an overseas tour visiting the main racing and training centres in England, Ireland and France. When Henry came back, he sub-leased four boxes at Caulfield. He had only three horses in work but was lucky early. Prelusive Strike was his first success at a night meeting at Cranbourne in March of 2013.
Henry now operates out of multiple locations. He has a state-of-the-art complex at Ballarat, west of Melbourne. He also has a beach facility at St. Leonards on the Bellarine Peninsula south-west of Melbourne. At Ballarat he has his own private block of land next to the racecourse and he has his own track, treadmill and everything else needed. There is also access to the Ballarat track so he has the best of both worlds. Then there is a 1400m sand track around the property at St. Leonards, with a treadmill. From there staff can walk the horses down to the nearby beach.
Sonntag was his first Group 1 winner when he won the 2014 Queensland Derby. Precious Gem also won the top level, scoring in the Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes. There have been other Group winners as well but none more important or impressive than Asfoora who recently won the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Ascot, firmly putting Henry Dwyer on the international map as a trainer.
This table examines trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
| From 01/08/2022 To 08/07/2024 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2.0-5.9 | | |
| Henry Dwyer with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Jack Hill | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28.6% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| John Allen | 33.3% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 37.5% | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28.0% | 7 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Mitchell Aitken | 40.0% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 38.1% | 8 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 28.6% | 12 | 13 | 8 | 9 |
| Neil Farley | 50.0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 66.7% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 45.5% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Beau Mertens | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Blaike McDougall | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| Celine Gaudray | - | - | - | - | - | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 50.0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Damien Thornton | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Declan Bates | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| Dom Tourneur | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jack Hill | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28.6% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| Jarrod Fry | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Jaylah Kennedy | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 28.6% | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| John Allen | 33.3% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 37.5% | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28.0% | 7 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Josh Cartwright | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Jye McNeil | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 42.9% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Lee Horner | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Nolen | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Madison Lloyd | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 40.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Mitchell Aitken | 40.0% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 38.1% | 8 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 28.6% | 12 | 13 | 8 | 9 |
| Neil Farley | 50.0% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 66.7% | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 45.5% | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Will Price | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 42.9% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| William McCarthy | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia, with combinations that have 5 wins or more highlighted separately as well as being included in the body of the table. Included in the table are only those jockeys who have ridden at least one winner for the stable in the $2.00 - $5.90 odds range during the period covered which is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season.
Wizard Ratings Results for Monday, July 8
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Mon 08.07.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| ALBURY | s7h8 | - 3 - 3. | 1 2. - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 2 | 2 2 1 - | 3 1 1. - | - 3 - - | 3 - - - | | | 2 2 3. 0 | 3 4. 3. 1 |
| BARCALDINE | g4 | 1 2 - - | 2 1 2 3 | 1 1 1 - | - - - - | - 2 - - | 2 3 1 2 | 1 3 - - | | | | 3 2 2 0 | 5 4 3 1 |
| PAKENHAM SYNTHETIC | aw | 1 2 2 - | 3 2 2 1 | - - - - | 1 2 3 3 | 3 - 1 1 | - - - 1 | - - 2 3. | 3 3 3 - | - - - - | | 2 0 1 3 | 2 3 4 3 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | w 7 24 | w 10 24 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | 29.20% | 41.70% |
Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)
The Wizard Ratings Results report includes the results of the top-two rated Wrat runners. This information should provide a better guide to those subscribers who are interested in backing two runners in a race (where odds are acceptable) or anchor two runners for multiples etc. (Note: Over the long term the top-two Wrat runners have won around 43% to 46%, and the top rated runner 25% to 27%, of races on a seasonal basis)
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results
Warren - Wiz-Ed