Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 11 July 2024.
- Jockey & Trainer combinations and profile (Samuel Payne)
- Trainer & Jockey combinations and profile (Garret Lynch)
- Wizard Ratings Results for Wednesday, July 10
Jockey & Trainer combinations and profile (Samuel Payne)
Samuel Payne comes from a famous racing family. He is the nephew of Patrick and Michelle Payne, and the son of their eldest sister Brigid who tragically died when only 38 years old. As Brigid was a single mum her death greatly impacted on Samuel and made for some difficult times in his teens and early twenties.
It seems Samuel was destined to follow the familiar family path and he became an apprentice when he was 15 years old. Following a series of disruptions he completed his apprenticeship when 23 years old. During this period he was injured in a fall, suffered from weight increases, retired from racing, and relocated to different parts of the country. Eventually he moved to Queensland and rode there for several years before returning to Victoria.
Whilst riding with some success in Victoria an offer came from well known South Australian trainer Sue Jaensch for Samuel to join their team at Murray Bridge. This offer was accepted and it seems to be paying dividends. Currently Samuel ranks in the South Australian Jockey Premiership top 20 with 37 winners this season, with a strike rate of 12.5%. His ranking in the SA Metropolitan Premiership is actually higher and, in the city, with a metro strike rate of 13.1%. Noteworthy from the stats below is Samuel's performance on race favourites, across multiple stables - well above the average.
The following table examines jockey-trainer combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
| From 01/08/2022 To 10/07/2024 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2.0-5.9 | | |
| Samuel Payne with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| J Hickmott & C Riggs | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80.0% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34.8% | 8 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| David Page | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 33.3% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Garret Lynch | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Gary Boyce | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Grant Young | 20.0% | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 42.9% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| J F Macmillan | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 25.0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| J Hickmott & C Riggs | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 80.0% | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 34.8% | 8 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| J Louise & J Frew | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | 50.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Frew | 25.0% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.7% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 30.0% | 3 | 4 | 1 | 2 |
| Judy Streets | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kylie Schulz | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ms R Day | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 28.6% | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21.4% | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| Peter Hardacre | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| R Daniel & T Stanbury | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| R W Huxtable | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| S & J Jaensch | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| T R White | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The statistics cover the jockey's rides throughout Australia, with combinations that have 5 wins or more highlighted separately as well as being included in the body of the table. Included in the table are only those stables for which the jockey has registered at least one win in the $2.00 - $5.90 odds range during the period covered which is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season.
Trainer & Jockey combinations and profile (Garret Lynch)
Garret Lynch is based in Murray Bridge, South Australia. Prior to training racehorses Garret was a successful rodeo rider, winning numerous state titles, and a national title. However, it was a significant rodeo accident in 2019 which ended that career and led to his current vocation. So, it was in the 2020-2021 season that he really turned his attention to training racehorses, increasing his stable size from 4 to around 30 horses.
One controversial issue arose that threw a spanner in the works. He was disqualified for nine months due to an animal welfare breach (failing to render adequate veterinary care to a horse that was found to be lame). On appeal, his disqualification was reduced to three and a half months.
Given the stock at his disposal, it is fair to say that Garret has "punched above his weight". He is reported to have said: "The most expensive horse Ive ever trained was $7000." The quality of his stock will increase as his success on the track in confirmed. This continuing success is confirmed by Garret's current 3rd place in the top 20 of this season's SA Trainer Premiership, with a strike rate of 14.7%. And he now leads the 2023-2024 SA Country Trainer Premiership and in that area of operations his strike rate is 21.9%.
The following table examines trainer-jockey combinations under three conditions:
- When the horse is the Wrat 100 pointer and started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse runs as the race favourite at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
- When the horse starts at odds between $2.00 and $5.90
| From 01/08/2022 To 10/07/2024 | | 100 | | | | | fav | | | | | 2.0-5.9 | | |
| Garret Lynch with | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp | win% | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | unp |
| Sairyn Fawke | 22.2% | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 52.9% | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 28.9% | 13 | 7 | 5 | 20 |
| Tala Hutchinson | 42.9% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 62.5% | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 41.2% | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Arron Lynch | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 50.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brooke King | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Campbell Rawiller | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Kayla Crowther | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33.3% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Kristo Sardelic | 25.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 22.2% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Lachlan Neindorf | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Lachlan Overall | - | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Rochelle Milnes | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 25.0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Ryan Hurdle | 11.1% | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15.4% | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 12.5% | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| Sairyn Fawke | 22.2% | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 52.9% | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 28.9% | 13 | 7 | 5 | 20 |
| Samuel Payne | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100.0% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Sophie Logan | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Stacey Callow | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 100.0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tala Hutchinson | 42.9% | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 62.5% | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 41.2% | 7 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
The statistics cover the stable's runners throughout Australia, with combinations that have 5 wins or more highlighted separately as well as being included in the body of the table. Included in the table are only those jockeys who have ridden at least one winner for the stable in the $2.00 - $5.90 odds range during the period covered which is from 1 August 2022, so last season and the current season.
Wizard Ratings Results for Wednesday, July 10
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.
| Wed 10.07.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e | w m h e |
| BELMONT PARK | h8 | - - - - | 3 - 1 1 | 2 2 1 - | - - 2 - | - - - 2. | - - 2. 3. | - - - - | | | | 0 0 2 1 | 1 1 4. 2. |
| CANBERRA ACTON | aw | - - 3 2 | - - 2 2. | - - - - | 1 2 1 2. | 3 - 1. - | 1 - - - | - - - - | | | | 2 0 2. 0 | 2 1 3. 3. |
| EAGLE FARM | s7 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 - - | 2 2 1 1 | 2 1 2 1 | - - - - | 1 1 3. - | 1 1 1 - | | | 3 4 2 2 | 5 5 3 2 |
| MT GAMBIER | s5 | - - - - | 1 1 1 1 | - - - - | - - - - | 1 1 1 1. | - 2 - - | 2 3 1 - | - - - - | - - - - | | 2 2 3 2. | 3 3 3 2. |
| SANDOWN-LAKESIDE | h8 | - - - - | - - 3 - | 3 - 1 3 | - - 2 1 | - - 2. - | 3 3 - - | 1 1 3. - | - 3 - - | | | 1 1 1 1 | 1 1 3. 1 |
| WARWICK FARM | h9 | 1 1 1. 1 | 2 1 2 3 | - - - - | 1 - - - | 1 1 2 - | 3 3 - - | 1 1 2. - | | | | 4 4 1. 1 | 5 4 4. 1 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | w 12 46 | w 17 46 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | 26.1% | 37.0% |
Header: w m h e = Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)
The Wizard Ratings Results report includes the results of the top-two rated Wrat runners. This information should provide a better guide to those subscribers who are interested in backing two runners in a race (where odds are acceptable) or anchor two runners for multiples etc. (Note: Over the long term the top-two Wrat runners have won around 43% to 46%, and the top rated runner 25% to 27%, of races on a seasonal basis)
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results
Warren - Wiz-Ed