Melbourne Cup Favourites

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 5 November 2023 - R&R posted at noon daily.

  • Melbourne Cup How the favourites have fared.
  • Research - Australian Trainers examining the top trainers around Australia and how they perform in different locations and under different conditions.

Melbourne Cup - The favourites

The full coverage (ratings, form, comments, stats, etc) for the Melbourne Cup meeting on Tuesday will be available later in the afternoon today.

Given the hype usually accompanying the favourite in the Melbourne Cup, I thought it might be interesting to look at how the favourites have performed in more recent years. The table below shows this for each year since 2010. Of the 14 favourites, or equal favourites, there has been only one winner (Fiorente in 2013) and three minor placings.

The table is pretty self-explanatory. The race result details for the Cup run are on the left-hand side, and then to the right of the jockey and trainer names you will find details of each horses lead in race.


           Lead in Race 
YearHorseFinMargOddsJockeyTrainerDistDayLocFinMargGroupRace name
2022Deauville Legend4th5L13/4  7/2  7/2Kerrin McEvoyJames Ferguson2385m76UKwon2.8L3YO-G2Great Voltiguer
2021Incentivise2nd4L15/8  7/4  15/8Brett PrebblePeter Moody2400m17AUSwon3.5LGroup1Caulfield Cup
2020Surprise Baby13th8.8L6/1  13/2  5/1Craig WilliamsPaul Preusker2000m31AUS9th2.4LSWP-G1Turnbull Stakes
2019Finche7th1.4L7/1  7/1  7/1Kerrin McEvoyChris Waller2400m17AUS5th1.6LGroup1Caulfield Cup
2018Yucatan11th11.5L11/2  6/1  5/1James McDonaldAidan O'Brien2400m24AUSwon1.3LGroup2Herbert Power
2017Marmelo9th9.9L7/1  7/1  6/1Hugh BowmanHughie Morrison2400m17AUS6th2.8LGroup1Caulfield Cup
2017Almandin12th11.5L8/1  8/1  6/1Frankie DettoriRobert Hickmott2500m31AUS4th3.4LGroup3Bart Cummings
2016Hartnell3rd4.5L9/2  5/1  9/2James McDonaldJohn O'Shea2040m10AUS2nd8LWFA-G1Cox Plate
2015Fame Game13th5.7L4/1  7/2  4/1Zac PurtonYosh Munakata2400m17AUS6th5LGroup1Caulfield Cup
2014Admire Rakti22nd72L5/1  5/1  9/2Zac PurtonTomoyuki Umeda2400m17AUSwon0.4LGroup1Caulfield Cup
2013Fiorentewon0.8L13/2  13/2  6/1Damien OliverGai Waterhouse2040m10AUS3rd0.5LWFA-G1Cox Plate
2012Dunaden14th10L6/1  6/1  6/1Craig WilliamsMikel Delzangles2400m17AUSwon0.5LGroup1Caulfield Cup
2011Americain4th1.5L4/1  9/2  4/1Gerald MosseAlain de Royer Dupre2500m10AUSwon2.3LGroup2MV Drake Int Cup
2010So You Think3rd3.3L2/1  2/1  2/1Steve ArnoldBart Cummings2000m3AUSwon3.7LWFA-G1Mackinnon Stakes


Wizard Research - Australian trainers analysed (Tasmania, Canberra ACT, Northern Territory)

In this series of articles, we report on the best performing trainers in Australia - on metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks. Many of the names will be familiar to you, but there are others who are just as successful (in terms of strike rate) who simply fly under the radar. 

Today we look at the top trainers on the Tasmanian, Canberra, and Northern Territory racetracks, in terms of race wins, for the 2022-2023 racing season.

The data out of Tasmania is acceptable in terms of number of wins and starts. There is limited data from Canberra as there are not many meetings each year on its only track, with the local trainers mainly racing their horses in NSW. The Northern Territory has reasonable data if one combines its metro, provincial, and country stats into one table. That is what has been done. Because of low numbers for the smaller stables in the NT a cut-off of 10 wins for the season was employed in ranking its leading trainers.


 Tasmania - Trainers   Canberra - Trainers   Northern Territory - Trainers   
 2022-2023   2022-2023   2022-2023   
1Scott Brunton6544914.5Keith Dryden2812123.1Gary Clarke5529019.0
2John Blacker5958010.2Norm Gardner127516.0Phillip Cole3631011.6
3Adam Trinder5225620.3Gratz Vella8889.10Dick Leech3316420.1
4L, D, T Wells3529311.9Matthew Dale64912.2Tayam Halter2420211.9
5Glenn Stevenson2717915.1B Joseph, P & M Jones65012.0Kerry Petrick2313716.8
6Gary White2015213.2Anthony Warren51241.7Terry Gillett177921.5
7Stuart Gandy1918210.4Joseph Ible51631.2Tommy Logan1610016.0
8Tegan Keys1811116.2Garry Kirkup52619.2Lisa Whittle1612512.8
9Barry Campbell1817410.3Matthew Smith53613.9Will Savage141549.1
10John Luttrell162187.3John Sargent41625.0Greg Connor141648.5
11Imogen Miller136320.6R Weston, J Nisbet41330.8Chris Pollard142096.7
12Rowan Hamer131369.6John Rolfe43910.3Paul Gardner1310013.0
13Sigrid Carr131916.8    Kevin Lamprecht118113.5
14Yassy Nishitani129412.8    Chloe Baxter104422.7
15Leanne Gaffney101069.4    Chris Nash105617.9
16Graeme McCulloch91326.8    Jason Manning106415.6
17Angela Brakey84717.0        
18Cameron Thompson81336.0        
19Drew Tyson72133.3        
20Liandra Gray74615.2