Wizard Watch Morning Movers results and NSW trainers compared

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 6 November - 2023 R&R posted at noon daily.

  • Wizard Watch Morning Movers Results from week one.
  • Melbourne Cup How the favourites have fared.
  • Research - Australian Trainers examining the top trainers around Australia and how they perform in different locations and under different conditions.


Wizard Watch Morning Movers - Results from week one.

The Wizard Watch Morning Movers report, which is one of the many features of our new Wizard Plus product, has now been operating for one full week.

The results below are for this first week.

Wizard Watch Morning Movers - week one      
DayMoversWinnersWin% RatedWinsRatedWinsFilterWins
     4 cols 3 cols   
Monday13431% 102111
Tuesday8338% 2232nqnq
Wednesday16638% 323220
Thursday20630% 101011
Friday25624% 112110
Saturday561934% 327584
Sunday16744% 102021
week one1545133% 1272011157


4 cols The four ratings assessments from Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk)

3 cols The three current form assessments from Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp)

Whilst the overall strike rate of the Wizard Watch Morning Movers last week was acceptable at 33%, the simple fact is that betting on 154 in one week, or 56 on a normal Saturday, is not sensible, nor is it recommended. Any sensible approach to wagering is knowing what to bet and when to bet.

To help you to fine down the full list of Morning Movers to a manageable list of potential bets is the reason we include in the MM report some key ratings assessments and other form related information from Wizard Plus reports specifically, the four key Wizard ratings (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk), the significant trainer/jockey combinations, and the Wizard Filter ranking. You can use this information as a filter to fine down the full list of movers to just those that meet your own criteria as being bet-worthy.

In the above table the results from using three of these possible filters has been shown.

Rated 4 columns - 4 cols - This option is just to consider a Morning Mover if it is also a 100 pointer on all four of the Wizard ratings assessments (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk). Last week, that reduced the number of potential bets from 154 to 12, with 7 of them winning (58%)

Rated 3 columns - 3 cols - This option drops out the Wexpk assessment which is not based on current form and whose strike rate is somewhat lower than the other three ratings assessments the three assessments used here would be Wrat, Wmod, and Whcp. Last week, that reduced the number of potential bets from 154 to 20, with 11 of them winning (55%).

Filter - This option makes use of the Wizard Filter rankings (from the Wizard Essentials Report). As mentioned elsewhere, our suggestion has been to focus on those filter horses that have at least 7 points AND are number 1 in the rankings for the race. For your convenience we include this information in the Morning Movers report. Using the Filter option last week reduced the number of potential bets from 154 to 15, with 7 of them winning (47%).

We think these are likely to be the best options to fine down the full list of Morning Movers to a manageable list of bets on a daily or weekly basis.

(The Wizard Watch Morning Movers report is available on the Wizard Plus website around 11:30am each race day.)


Melbourne Cup - The favourites

If you missed it, you can check out the record of Melbourne Cup favourites in recent years which was posted in yesterdays Wizard Daily Report. Just click on the Sunday tab above.


Wizard Research - Australian trainers analysed (NSW trainers seasons comparison)

Today we look at the top trainers on NSW metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks, comparing results for the full 2022-2023 season to the current 2023-2024 season.

Some interesting moves, especially the great start to the season Matthew Dunn is enjoying in Sydney. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott are remarkably consistent, as is James Cummings. Michael Freedman continues to do very well on the provincial circuit and Ciaron Maher and David Eustace may have decided to work the provincial circuit as well as the city. Big mover.


 NSW Trainers - seasonal comparison             
 Season 2022-2023win% Current 2023-2024win% Season 2022-2023win% Current 2023-2024win% Season 2022-2023win% Current 2023-2024win%
 Metropolitan  Metropolitan  Provincial  Provincial  Countrywin% Countrywin%
1Chris Waller11.60 G Waterhouse, A Bott19.3 James Cummings26.9 Chris Waller16.7 Kris Lees17.5 Keith Dryden19.4
2G Waterhouse, A Bott19.4 Chris Waller9.2 Peter, Paul Snowden15.3 Michael Freedman30.0 Clint Lundholm15.5 Brett Cavanough13.1
3James Cummings17.8 James Cummings18 John O'Shea18.5 Peter, Paul Snowden13.8 Brett Cavanough14.7 Connie Greig11.8
4C Maher, D Eustace15.1 C Maher, D Eustace13.1 Brad Widdup14.1 C Maher, D Eustace22.2 Connie Greig16.6 Clint Lundholm12.3
5Bjorn Baker11.0 M, W, J Hawkes14.4 Nathan Doyle19.8 Nathan Doyle27.9 Cody Morgan22.2 Kris Lees18.8
6Annabell Neasham13.7 Bjorn Baker16.4 Chris Waller12.6 Matthew Smith20.4 Keith Dryden17.8 Brett Robb17.1
7Joseph Pride12.1 Peter, Paul Snowden13.2 Matthew Smith11.3 James Cummings21.3 Brett Robb14.7 Andrew Dale14.9
8M, W, J Hawkes13.3 Joseph Pride11.4 G Ryan, S Alexiou19.5 Robert, Luke Price18.2 Matthew Dunn22.4 Cody Morgan18.5
9Mark Newnham19.1 G Ryan, S Alexiou15.7 Bjorn Baker15.3 G Ryan, S Alexiou30.3 Annabell Neasham28.7 Annabell Neasham18.6
10G Ryan, S Alexiou11.1 Matthew Dunn50.0 John Thompson16.6 John O'Shea18.8 Matthew Smith18.3 B Joseph, P, M Jones15.3
11John O'Shea9.2 John O'Shea8.6 Michael Freedman23.6 Brad Widdup13.4 Mitchell Beer12.9 Cameron Crockett23.9
12Peter, Paul Snowden8.6 Annabell Neasham8.8 Kris Lees13.9 G Waterhouse, A Bott28.1 Bjorn Baker20.8 Matthew Dunn15.2
13Kris Lees8.0 Brad Widdup16.7 G Waterhouse, A Bott20.0 John Sargent21.1 Andrew Dale12.5 Stephen Jones16.1
14Matthew Smith8.0 Kris Lees8.3 Richard, Will Freedman17.7 Kris Lees13.2 B Joseph, P, M Jones11.8 Craig Weeding16.9
15Brad Widdup11.7 Nathan Doyle16.0 Annabell Neasham13.1 Joseph Pride15.4 Paul Messara37.6 Bjorn Baker17.9
16John Sargent13.5 Gary Portelli7.3 Mark Newnham19.8 Paul Perry7.8 Paul Shailer19.4 Michael Travers18.9
17David Payne10.4 Michael Freedman7.1 Kim Waugh11.7 John Thompson8.5 Michael Mulholland16.2 Rod Northam16.7
18Michael Freedman14.8 Matthew Smith10.0 Anthony Cummings17.6 M, W, J Hawkes20.8 Stephen Lee15.3 Paul Perry14.7
19John Thompson7.3 Danny Williams10.3 Joseph Pride17.3 Kim Waugh10.2 Rod Northam16.8 Damien Lane13.6
20Nathan Doyle9.6 Edward Cummings14.3 M, W, J Hawkes20.2 Anthony Cummings17.2 Paul Perry10.9 Scott Singleton12.9