Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 6 November - 2023 R&R posted at noon daily.
- Wizard Watch Morning Movers Results from week one.
- Melbourne Cup How the favourites have fared.
- Research - Australian Trainers examining the top trainers around Australia and how they perform in different locations and under different conditions.
Wizard Watch Morning Movers - Results from week one.
The Wizard Watch Morning Movers report, which is one of the many features of our new Wizard Plus product, has now been operating for one full week.
The results below are for this first week.
|Wizard Watch Morning Movers - week one|| || || || || || |
| || || || || ||4 cols|| ||3 cols|| || || |
| || || || || || || || || || || |
|week one||154||51||33%|| ||12||7||20||11||15||7|
4 cols The four ratings assessments from Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk)
3 cols The three current form assessments from Wizard Plus (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp)
Whilst the overall strike rate of the Wizard Watch Morning Movers last week was acceptable at 33%, the simple fact is that betting on 154 in one week, or 56 on a normal Saturday, is not sensible, nor is it recommended. Any sensible approach to wagering is knowing what to bet and when to bet.
To help you to fine down the full list of Morning Movers to a manageable list of potential bets is the reason we include in the MM report some key ratings assessments and other form related information from Wizard Plus reports specifically, the four key Wizard ratings (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk), the significant trainer/jockey combinations, and the Wizard Filter ranking. You can use this information as a filter to fine down the full list of movers to just those that meet your own criteria as being bet-worthy.
In the above table the results from using three of these possible filters has been shown.
Rated 4 columns - 4 cols - This option is just to consider a Morning Mover if it is also a 100 pointer on all four of the Wizard ratings assessments (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk). Last week, that reduced the number of potential bets from 154 to 12, with 7 of them winning (58%)
Rated 3 columns - 3 cols - This option drops out the Wexpk assessment which is not based on current form and whose strike rate is somewhat lower than the other three ratings assessments the three assessments used here would be Wrat, Wmod, and Whcp. Last week, that reduced the number of potential bets from 154 to 20, with 11 of them winning (55%).
Filter - This option makes use of the Wizard Filter rankings (from the Wizard Essentials Report). As mentioned elsewhere, our suggestion has been to focus on those filter horses that have at least 7 points AND are number 1 in the rankings for the race. For your convenience we include this information in the Morning Movers report. Using the Filter option last week reduced the number of potential bets from 154 to 15, with 7 of them winning (47%).
We think these are likely to be the best options to fine down the full list of Morning Movers to a manageable list of bets on a daily or weekly basis.
(The Wizard Watch Morning Movers report is available on the Wizard Plus website around 11:30am each race day.)
Melbourne Cup - The favourites
If you missed it, you can check out the record of Melbourne Cup favourites in recent years which was posted in yesterdays Wizard Daily Report. Just click on the Sunday tab above.
Wizard Research - Australian trainers analysed (NSW trainers seasons comparison)
Today we look at the top trainers on NSW metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks, comparing results for the full 2022-2023 season to the current 2023-2024 season.
Some interesting moves, especially the great start to the season Matthew Dunn is enjoying in Sydney. Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott are remarkably consistent, as is James Cummings. Michael Freedman continues to do very well on the provincial circuit and Ciaron Maher and David Eustace may have decided to work the provincial circuit as well as the city. Big mover.
| ||NSW Trainers - seasonal comparison|| || || || || || || || || || || || || |
| ||Season 2022-2023||win%|| ||Current 2023-2024||win%|| ||Season 2022-2023||win%|| ||Current 2023-2024||win%|| ||Season 2022-2023||win%|| ||Current 2023-2024||win%|
| ||Metropolitan|| || ||Metropolitan|| || ||Provincial|| || ||Provincial|| || ||Country||win%|| ||Country||win%|
|1||Chris Waller||11.60|| ||G Waterhouse, A Bott||19.3|| ||James Cummings||26.9|| ||Chris Waller||16.7|| ||Kris Lees||17.5|| ||Keith Dryden||19.4|
|2||G Waterhouse, A Bott||19.4|| ||Chris Waller||9.2|| ||Peter, Paul Snowden||15.3|| ||Michael Freedman||30.0|| ||Clint Lundholm||15.5|| ||Brett Cavanough||13.1|
|3||James Cummings||17.8|| ||James Cummings||18|| ||John O'Shea||18.5|| ||Peter, Paul Snowden||13.8|| ||Brett Cavanough||14.7|| ||Connie Greig||11.8|
|4||C Maher, D Eustace||15.1|| ||C Maher, D Eustace||13.1|| ||Brad Widdup||14.1|| ||C Maher, D Eustace||22.2|| ||Connie Greig||16.6|| ||Clint Lundholm||12.3|
|5||Bjorn Baker||11.0|| ||M, W, J Hawkes||14.4|| ||Nathan Doyle||19.8|| ||Nathan Doyle||27.9|| ||Cody Morgan||22.2|| ||Kris Lees||18.8|
|6||Annabell Neasham||13.7|| ||Bjorn Baker||16.4|| ||Chris Waller||12.6|| ||Matthew Smith||20.4|| ||Keith Dryden||17.8|| ||Brett Robb||17.1|
|7||Joseph Pride||12.1|| ||Peter, Paul Snowden||13.2|| ||Matthew Smith||11.3|| ||James Cummings||21.3|| ||Brett Robb||14.7|| ||Andrew Dale||14.9|
|8||M, W, J Hawkes||13.3|| ||Joseph Pride||11.4|| ||G Ryan, S Alexiou||19.5|| ||Robert, Luke Price||18.2|| ||Matthew Dunn||22.4|| ||Cody Morgan||18.5|
|9||Mark Newnham||19.1|| ||G Ryan, S Alexiou||15.7|| ||Bjorn Baker||15.3|| ||G Ryan, S Alexiou||30.3|| ||Annabell Neasham||28.7|| ||Annabell Neasham||18.6|
|10||G Ryan, S Alexiou||11.1|| ||Matthew Dunn||50.0|| ||John Thompson||16.6|| ||John O'Shea||18.8|| ||Matthew Smith||18.3|| ||B Joseph, P, M Jones||15.3|
|11||John O'Shea||9.2|| ||John O'Shea||8.6|| ||Michael Freedman||23.6|| ||Brad Widdup||13.4|| ||Mitchell Beer||12.9|| ||Cameron Crockett||23.9|
|12||Peter, Paul Snowden||8.6|| ||Annabell Neasham||8.8|| ||Kris Lees||13.9|| ||G Waterhouse, A Bott||28.1|| ||Bjorn Baker||20.8|| ||Matthew Dunn||15.2|
|13||Kris Lees||8.0|| ||Brad Widdup||16.7|| ||G Waterhouse, A Bott||20.0|| ||John Sargent||21.1|| ||Andrew Dale||12.5|| ||Stephen Jones||16.1|
|14||Matthew Smith||8.0|| ||Kris Lees||8.3|| ||Richard, Will Freedman||17.7|| ||Kris Lees||13.2|| ||B Joseph, P, M Jones||11.8|| ||Craig Weeding||16.9|
|15||Brad Widdup||11.7|| ||Nathan Doyle||16.0|| ||Annabell Neasham||13.1|| ||Joseph Pride||15.4|| ||Paul Messara||37.6|| ||Bjorn Baker||17.9|
|16||John Sargent||13.5|| ||Gary Portelli||7.3|| ||Mark Newnham||19.8|| ||Paul Perry||7.8|| ||Paul Shailer||19.4|| ||Michael Travers||18.9|
|17||David Payne||10.4|| ||Michael Freedman||7.1|| ||Kim Waugh||11.7|| ||John Thompson||8.5|| ||Michael Mulholland||16.2|| ||Rod Northam||16.7|
|18||Michael Freedman||14.8|| ||Matthew Smith||10.0|| ||Anthony Cummings||17.6|| ||M, W, J Hawkes||20.8|| ||Stephen Lee||15.3|| ||Paul Perry||14.7|
|19||John Thompson||7.3|| ||Danny Williams||10.3|| ||Joseph Pride||17.3|| ||Kim Waugh||10.2|| ||Rod Northam||16.8|| ||Damien Lane||13.6|
|20||Nathan Doyle||9.6|| ||Edward Cummings||14.3|| ||M, W, J Hawkes||20.2|| ||Anthony Cummings||17.2|| ||Paul Perry||10.9|| ||Scott Singleton||12.9|