Trainers - Key factors analysed

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 8 November 2023 - R&R posted at noon daily.

  • Research - Trainers - Key factors
  • Research - Australian Trainers Reporting on the top trainers around Australia.

Research - Trainers - Key Factors (NSW top 10 metropolitan)

Today we start an examination of the most successful trainers in Australia and zero in on the key form factors that we consider when assessing the claims of a runner they have in a race.

This article looks at the 2022-2023 top 10 metropolitan trainers in NSW. Next will come the trainers  ranked 11 to 20 in that category. Then we move on to the top 10 metropolitan in Victoria, and so on.

The key factors we will examine today are:

  • Days since last run
  • Days since last win
  • Runs from a spell, First Time Starters (FTS)

In the table below we show for each trainer the percentage of winners for each category and the Impact Value for that percentage.

By way of explanation, an impact value is an index which is calculated by looking at the percentage of winners that possess a particular characteristic (say, 1-7 days since last run) when compared to the percentage of winners from the group as a whole (here, all winners from the stable).


Chris Waller had 157 winners from 849 starters who were racing within seven day of their last race (1-7 days). In the period surveyed overall he had 2,794 winners from 20,127 starters. 

His 1-7-days winners had an impact value of 1.3.


157 (1-7 winners) divided by 2794 (all winners) = 5.6%

849 (1-7 starters) divided by 20,127 (all starters) = 4.2%

Divide 5.6% by 4.2% = 1.3 (impact value)

An impact value of 1.0 means that the horses with a particular characteristic won a percentage of their races that was equal to the percentage they were of the total number of runners in the group.

In the above example Chris Waller's 1-7-days winners represented 5.6% of all winners but were only 4.2% of the total starters from the stable. That means these 1-7-days runners won more than their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole.

                                            Days since last run                                     Days since last win                    Runs from a spell and First Time Starters

Trainers - NSW                          
 1-7iv8-14iv15-21iv22-28iv 8-14iv15-21iv22-28iv FTSiv1st upiv2nd upiv3rd upiv4th upiv
Chris Waller18.51.314. 22.41.719.61.515.51.2 11.90.912.20.912.70.915.
G Waterhouse, A Bott20. 23.91.420.
James Cummings16.00.915.80.918. 15.80.921.41.319.81.2 14.40.817.
C Maher, D Eustace*10.50.617.00.919. 23.91.422.21.321.81.3
Bjorn Baker16. 24.01.520.91.314.30.9 14.20.915.
Annabel Neasham**5.00.315. *221.422.51.4*7.80.5 11.90.814.40.915.
Joseph Pride12.70.913.90.915. 21.01.420.11.415.81.1 9.80.715.
M, W, J Hawkes13.80.814.30.916. 21.61.421.61.417.11.1
G Ryan, S Alexiou**120.716. **161.0 13.90.917.
John O'Shea8.50.517. 28.31.823.31.518.31.1
Average14.5 16.2 17.4 15.8  22.2 21.5 17.0  14.8 16.4 16.2 17.3 17.8 

* fewer than 100 runners

** fewer than 50 runners

There are some interesting variations in the table. Some trainers are strong across the categories, others not so. An impact value of 1.1 is worth noting, and any value of 1.2 or more is certainly worth taking into consideration when assessing a runner, as is a score of 0.9 or lower.

Wizard Research - Australian trainers analysed - (Queensland trainers seasons comparison)

Today we look at the top trainers on Queensland metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks, comparing results for the full 2022-2023 season to the current 2023-2024 season.


 Queensland Trainers                
 Season 2022-2013  Current 2023-2024  Season 2022-2013  Current 2023-2024  Season 2022-2013  Current 2023-2024 
 Metropolitan  Metropolitan  Provincial  Provincial  Country  Country 
 Trainerwin% Trainerwin% Trainerwin%Trainerwin%Trainerwin% Trainerwin%
1Tony Gollan19.0 Tony Gollan21.4 Mark Currie20.9 Stuart Kendrick25.0 Bevan Johnson16.9 John Manzelmann                                                                                                      mann15.4
2Chris Waller14.8 Kelly Schweida24.1 Stuart Kendrick16.0 Lindsay Hatch18.6 John Manzelmann  17.6 Tanya Parry8.5
3Robert Heathcote13.6 Chris Waller15.7 Tony Gollan22.5 Tony Gollan21.1 Tanya Parry7.9 Craig Smith23.0
4S O'Dea, M Hoysted15.5 S O'Dea, M Hoysted14.0 Clinton Taylor29.9 Toby, Trent Edmonds26.2 David Rewald12.1 Glenda Bell18.3
5Matthew Dunn12.0 Chris Munce16.2 Ricky Vale28.6 Mark Currie15.1 Craig Smith17.3 David Rewald13.1
6David Vandyke15.5 Robert Heathcote10.6 Stephen Massingham19.6 Jared Wehlow26.5 Wayne Baker12.6 Denise Ballard34.5
7Annabell Neasham12.7 Stuart Kendrick11.4 Lindsay Hatch14.7 Adam Campton22 Shryn Royes16.4 Corey, Kylie Geran15.6
8Chris Munce11.7 Annabell Neasham23.1 Nick Walsh42.4 Jack Bruce18.8 Glenda Bell16.9 Bevan Johnson10.0
9Kelly Schweida7.9 Matthew Dunn15.1 Jared Wehlow20.6 Lee Freedman30.8 Corey, Kylie Geran37.7 Toni Schofield22.0
10Barry Lockwood17.4 Barry Lockwood17.9 Georgie Holt16.0 Lindsay Gough29.6 Toni Schofield20.7 Stephen Massingham20.5
11Kris Lees12.1 Kris Lees15.2 Corey, Kylie Geran13.4 Paula Barron16.3 Henry Forster12.2 Shryn Royes14.8
12Jack Bruce11.9 Mark Currie12.2 Tony, Maddy Sears18.3 Robert Heathcote11.8 Shane Iverson19.8 Stephen Bush24.2
13Tony, Maddy Sears11.3 Tony, Maddy Sears10.4 Toby, Trent Edmonds22.4 Chris Munce16.3 Pat Webster25.6 Alwyn Bailey20
14Mark Currie13.3 Les Ross10.3 Chris Anderson18.8 Marcus Wilson15.6 Clinton Taylor39.1 Rodney Hay15.4
15Les Ross8.7 Toby, Trent Edmonds14.8 Jack Bruce18.3 Les Kelly27.3 Jay Morris26.7 Beau Gorman43.8
16Desleigh Forster10.2 Natalie McCall17.6 Annabell Neasham20.6 Garnet Taylor26.1 Sharlee Hoffman25 Clinton Taylor26.9
17Stuart Kendrick6.6 Lee Freedman15 S O'Dea, M Hoysted22.8 Clinton Taylor25.0 Matt Kropp20.8 Alex Malliff26.9
18Toby, Trent Edmonds9.9 Chris Anderson10.7 Robert Heathcote15.6 Annabell Neasham12.5 Denise Ballard17.6 R Tyrell, T Button22.6
19Lee Freedman11.2 David Vandyke8.3 Roy Chillemi14.3 Corey, Kylie Geran12.2 Raymond Williams16.2 Wayne Baker15.2
20Chris Anderson10.4 Jack Bruce5.2 Kelly Schweida15.7 Scott Morrisey14.3 Mark Oates16.7 Henry Forster10.0