Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 8 November 2023 - R&R posted at noon daily.

• Research - Trainers - Key factors
• Research - Australian Trainers Reporting on the top trainers around Australia.

Research - Trainers - Key Factors (NSW top 10 metropolitan)

Today we start an examination of the most successful trainers in Australia and zero in on the key form factors that we consider when assessing the claims of a runner they have in a race.

This article looks at the 2022-2023 top 10 metropolitan trainers in NSW. Next will come the trainers  ranked 11 to 20 in that category. Then we move on to the top 10 metropolitan in Victoria, and so on.

The key factors we will examine today are:

• Days since last run
• Days since last win
• Runs from a spell, First Time Starters (FTS)

In the table below we show for each trainer the percentage of winners for each category and the Impact Value for that percentage.

By way of explanation, an impact value is an index which is calculated by looking at the percentage of winners that possess a particular characteristic (say, 1-7 days since last run) when compared to the percentage of winners from the group as a whole (here, all winners from the stable).

Example:

Chris Waller had 157 winners from 849 starters who were racing within seven day of their last race (1-7 days). In the period surveyed overall he had 2,794 winners from 20,127 starters. 

His 1-7-days winners had an impact value of 1.3.

Calculation:

157 (1-7 winners) divided by 2794 (all winners) = 5.6%

849 (1-7 starters) divided by 20,127 (all starters) = 4.2%

Divide 5.6% by 4.2% = 1.3 (impact value)

An impact value of 1.0 means that the horses with a particular characteristic won a percentage of their races that was equal to the percentage they were of the total number of runners in the group.

In the above example Chris Waller's 1-7-days winners represented 5.6% of all winners but were only 4.2% of the total starters from the stable. That means these 1-7-days runners won more than their fair share of the races won by the group as a whole.

                                            Days since last run                                     Days since last win                    Runs from a spell and First Time Starters

* fewer than 100 runners

** fewer than 50 runners

There are some interesting variations in the table. Some trainers are strong across the categories, others not so. An impact value of 1.1 is worth noting, and any value of 1.2 or more is certainly worth taking into consideration when assessing a runner, as is a score of 0.9 or lower.

Wizard Research - Australian trainers analysed - (Queensland trainers seasons comparison)

Today we look at the top trainers on Queensland metropolitan, provincial, and country tracks, comparing results for the full 2022-2023 season to the current 2023-2024 season.