Trainers - Chris Waller an outlier

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 9 November 2023 - R&R posted at noon daily.

  • Research Trainers Key factors.
  • Research - Australian Trainers Reporting on the top trainers around Australia.

Research Trainers - Key Factors (NSW metropolitan)

Today we continue an examination of the most successful trainers in Australia and zero in on the key form factors we consider when assessing the claims of a runner they have in a race.

This article looks at the 2022-2023 trainers ranked 12 to 20 in the NSW metropolitan premiership table (Mark Newnham was omitted as he has relocated to Hong Kong), with Matthew Dunn added.

The key factors we will examine are:

  • Days since last run
  • Days since last win
  • Runs from a spell, First Time Starters (FTS)

In the table below we show for each trainer the percentage of winners for each category and the Impact Value for that percentage.

An explanation of how the IV is calculated was provided yesterday, Wednesday 8 November, and can be accessed in the Wizard Daily Report Archive.

                                                        Days since last run                                                    Days since last win                                             Runs from spell and First Time Starter

Trainers - NSW                        
 1-7iv8-14iv15-21iv22-28iv8-14iv15-21iv22-28ivFTSiv1st upiv2 upiv3 upiv4 upiv
Peter, Paul Snowden*10.20.616.
Kris Lees13.00.816.
Matthew Smith*18.41.612.
Brad Widdup**120.816.*18.91.419.81.4*
John Sargent**
David Payne*14.01.411.*15.61.5*9.81.0*
Michael Freedman**0.0*13.30.818.**231.4**251.6**60.3*27.01.4**12.70.7**160.9
John Thompson**
Nathan Doyle**291.614.60.818.**130.8*27.11.6*20.31.2*
Matthew Dunn*20.61.317.*
Average15.9 14.5 15.2 14.2 19.0 17.9 15.1 15.3 13.6 14.7 15.0 14.3 

* fewer than 100 runners

** fewer than 50 runners

There are some interesting variations in the table. Some trainers are strong across the categories, others not so. An impact value of 1.1 is worth noting, and any value of 1.2 or more is certainly worth taking into consideration when assessing a runner, as is a score of 0.9 or lower.

It seems these individual trainer stats support the general understanding that trainers overall will seek to capitalise on a horses good current (winning) form and back up, within 8 to 21 days being the prime time. Seeking back to back wins in 7 days or fewer is not nearly as common as the 8-21 days and the numbers were considered too small to have any significance for this study. The only trainer in the NSW metro top twenty to buck this trend was Chris Waller who had 17 winners from 73 starters (23.3%, 1.8 iv) in this minimum period. An outlier result from Chris.

Wizard Research Australian trainers analysed (South Australia seasons comparison)

Today we look at the top trainers on South Australian metropolitan and provincial tracks, comparing results for the full 2022-2023 season to the current 2023-2024 season. (Note: Stats for SA country tracks have been omitted as the number of wins and starts in the current season is just too small for any meaningful comparison.)


 South Australia seasonal comparison       
 Season 2022-2023  Current 2023-2024  Season 2022-2023  Current 2023-2024 
 Metropolitan  Metropolitan  Provincial  Provincial 
 Trainerwin% Trainerwin% Trainerwin%Trainerwin%
1Richard, Chantelle Jolly16.3 Richard, Chantelle Jolly16.3 Jon O'Connor17.3 Richard, Chantelle Jolly30.2
2Phillip Stokes17.8 Phillip Stokes21.6 Richard, Chantelle Jolly17.0 W Clarken, N O'Shea22.2
3Michael Hickmott19.7 W Clarken, N O'Shea21.6 J Dunn, K Bishop6.2 J Dunn, K Bishop8.3
4G Richards, D Moyle12.0 Michael Hickmott27.8 G Richards, D Moyle17.2 G Richards, D Moyle11.5
5L Macdonald, A Gluyrs11.5 G, N Searle, B Callanan33.3 Matthew Seyers14.2 Andrew Gluyas18.5
6David Jolly11.3 Travis Doudle22.7 David Jolly14.0 Wayne Walters17.2
7W Clarken, N O'Shea10.9 D Clarken, O MacGillvray19.0 Phillip Stokes20.6 Matthew Seyers17.2
8Ryan Balfour7.8 Andrew Gluyas10.5 Grant Young9.3 David Jolly13.9
9Ben, J D Hayes47.8 Shane, Cassie Oxlade33.3 Jordan Frew12.5 Michael Hickmott22.2
10Chris Bieg10.8 Sue, Jason Jaensch23.1 Peter Hardacre17.1 Roslyn Day20.0
11Peter, Belinda Blanch20.8 Byron Cozamanis18.8 W Clarken, N O'Shea22.4 Jordan Frew16.0
12Peter Hardacre11.8 Matthew Seyers17.6 Sue, Jason Jaensch11.1 Shayne Cahill14.3
13Travis Doudle10.6 Jon O'Connor10.7 Garret Lynch5.2 D Clarken, O MacGillvray27.3
14Shane, Cassie Oxlade18.8 Ben, Will, JD Hayes18.2 L Macdonald, A Gluyrs13.2 Shane, Cassie Oxlade14.3
15D Clarken, O MacGillvray13.3 Nicole Irwin18.2 Roslyn Day12.2 Byron Cozamanis13.6
16John Macmillan7.2 W Francis, G Kent14.3 W Francis, G Kent11.00 W Francis, G Kent11.1
17C Maher, D Eustace18.9 Jordan Frew11.1 Chris Bieg13.4 G Lesnikowski, R Hannemann11.1
18Sue, Jason Jaensch12.3 Jarrod Lynch9.1 Shayne Cahill10.6 Gary, Dean Alexander8.8
19Matthew Seyers10.6 John Macmillan6.9 Ryan Balfour8.3 Jon O'Connor8.6
20Jon O'Connor5.4 G Richards, D Moyle3.3 J Hickmott, C Riggs3.8 Bill Bogarts6.2