Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 11 November 2023 - R&R posted during the afternoon.
- This jockey - I wonder how .. ??? (continued)
- Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW
This jockey - I wonder how ??? (continued)
How often when analysing a race have you asked the question - I wonder how this jockey performs .. ???
Wizard Plus answers many questions you might have about a jockey, as well as about the trainer of the horse being ridden, and the horse itself, in the wide range of daily reports produced for each meeting covered metropolitan, provincial, and country.
From eight of the dedicated jockey/trainer reports available you can get information covering a multitude of factors, look at the data overall and, importantly, narrow it down to when the horse is in the market (when it has started at 10/1 or less) and has been expected to perform.
Again, looking at the Group 1 Champions Stakes at Flemington today and jockey Jamie Kah.
In the Jockey/Trainer stats for the previous 12 months with odds 10/1 or less Report we get the following details about Jamie Kah.
| starts | win% | place% |
Riding favourite | 122 | 29 | 61 |
All rides | 281 | 19 | 49 |
Flemington | 50 | 24 | 54 |
Metropolitan | 232 | 19 | 48 |
Distance +/-10% | 27 | 15 | 41 |
Good track | 225 | 20 | 48 |
Wet track | 56 | 13 | 54 |
On this horse | 2 | 50 | |
And from the Horse/Jockey/Trainer stats summary Report we get the following for Jamie.
| starts | win% | place% |
Favourite - last year | 122 | 29 | 61 |
Favourite - previous year | 214 | 36 | 73 |
Favourite - two years back | 179 | 39 | 70 |
Favourite - Flemington | 22 | 32 | 64 |
Favourite - Metropolitan | 99 | 29 | 61 |
Favourite - distance | 11 | 36 | 83 |
Favourite - good | 91 | 32 | 62 |
Favourite - soft | 31 | 19 | 58 |
Favourite - heavy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Favourite - horse | 3 | 33 | 100 |
It should also be noted that the same range of information about the trainer, and the jockey/trainer combination, is included in the report.
It only takes a minute or two to access these reports and your question has been answered. Query answered, time to continue with the horse assessment.
Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW
Over the last three days I have been providing a statistical analysis of the top twenty trainers on Sydney metropolitan tracks. Various form factors have been covered, with win percentages and impact values published.
Rather than continue to provide this raw data I have decided to produce a notebook style report on the trainers of interest.
The same type of form factors have been analysed for each trainer, with a couple of extra added.
However, for this notebook presentation I have broken the overall stats down into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform.
Also I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise, and only included results where I had at least 50 observations.
The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.
Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.
Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Sydney metropolitan - top 10 trainers
| 2yo | 3yo | 4yo and older |
Chris Waller | days since last run 30-179 | finish last start: 1st | days since last run 1-7 |
| runs from a spell: 1st up | previous win margin 3.1L plus | days since last win 8-21 |
| Field Strength +3.0 and higher | dist change: up 301-500m | Field Strength +5.0 and higher |
| finish last start: 1st | | finish last start: 1st |
| | | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 |
| | | |
Gai Waterhouse, A Bott | days since last run 8-14 | days since last run 22-28 | days since last run 1-7 |
| days since last win 8-21 | runs from a spell: 4th up | runs from a spell: 3rd up |
| previous win margin 3.1L plus | weight change: up 3-4.5Kg | days since last win 8-21 |
| dist change: up 101-300m | Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5 | Field Strength +5.0 and higher |
| | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 | finish last start: 1st |
| | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 |
| | | dist change: up 301-500m |
| | | |
James Cummings | days since last win 30-60 | days since last run 180-365 | days since last run 180-365 |
| Field Strength -5.5 or more | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 | days since last win 15-28 |
| | dist change: up 301-500m | finish last start: 1st |
| | | runs from a spell: 3rd up |
| | | |
C Maher, D Eustace | days since last run 15-21 | days since last run 180-365 | days since last win 8-28 |
| days since last win 15-21 | days since last win 8-21 | Field Strength -5.5 or more |
| Field Strength -2.5 to -1 | dist change: up 301-500m | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd |
| Field Strength +1 to +2.5 | | previous win margin 3.1L plus |
| runs from a spell: 2nd up | | |
| runs from a spell: 4th up | | |
| dist change: -100 to +100 | | |
| | | |
Bjorn Baker | days since last run 15-21 | days since last run 1-7 | days since last win 8-21 |
| finish last start: 1st | Field Strength -5.5 or more | Field Strength -3.0 or more |
| finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | weight change: +3.0 to -4.5kg | finish last start: 1st |
| previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0 | dist change: -300 to -101 | weight change: +3.0 or more |
| runs from a spell: 3rd up | | |
| weight change: -3.0 to -0.5kg | | |
| | | |
Annabel Neasham | days since last run 8-21 | days since last win 8-14 | days since last run 15-21 |
| finish last start: 1st | days since last win 180-365 | days since last win 15-21 |
| finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | Field Strength -5.0 to -1.0 | days since last win 30-60 |
| runs from a spell: 3rd up | runs from a spell: 1st up | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd |
| weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg | | runs from a spell: 4th up |
| dist change: -100 to +100 | | dist change: +301 to +500 |
| | | |
Joseph Pride | insufficient data | days since last win 8-14 | days since last run 61-365 |
| | Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5 | days since last win 8-21 |
| | Field Strength +3.0 to +5.0 | days since last win 30-60 |
| | finish last start: 1st | runs from a spell: 1st up |
| | runs from a spell: 4th up | weight change: +5.0 or more |
| | | |
M, W, J Hawkes | Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5 | days since last win 15-21 | days since last run 1-7 |
| runs from a spell: 1st up | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | days since last run 30-60 |
| finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | dist change: -300 to -101 | days since last run 180-365 |
| | | days since last win 8-21 |
| | | finish last start: 1st |
| | | runs from a spell: 1st up |
| | | |
G Ryan, S Alexiou | insufficient data | days since last run 15-28 | days since last win 8-14 |
| | days since last win 15-21 | days since last win 15-21 |
| | Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5 | Field Strength +1 to +2.5 |
| | runs from a spell: 2nd up | finish last start: 1st |
| | runs from a spell: 4th up | |
| | | |
John O'Shea | days since last run 15-21 | days since last run 30-60 | days since last run 8-14 |
| Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0 | days since last run 180-365 | days since last win 8-21 |
| | days since last win 8-28 | Field Strength +3.0 to +5.0 |
| | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 | finish last start: 1st |
| | dist change: -300 to -101 | dist change: +301 to +500 |