Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 14 November 2023.

• Location ABCDE - Overlooked opportunities.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

Location ABCDE - Overlooked opportunities

Yesterday, I discussed the way the Wizard classifies the racetracks in Australia.

In our Wizard database we classify the racetracks in Australia on 5 levels:

A - Level 1     Sydney and Melbourne metropolitan tracks

B - Level 2     Metropolitan tracks in Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth

C - Level 3     NSW and Victorian provincial tracks Gosford, Hawkesbury, Ballarat, Mornington

D - Level 4     NSW and Victorian country track and other states provincials, and Tasmania main tracks

E - Level 5     Country tracks in states other than NSW and Victoria

As you can see the classification is primarily location based.

The majority of punters, perhaps the vast majority, concentrate on the A and B tracks when it comes to their wagering. We all like to bet on these capital city meetings; we know the horses, the trainers, the jockeys, and discussion about these meetings dominates the media.

However, by limiting their wagering to these A and B meetings, this majority of punters are missing out on backing winners on CDE tracks, and generally at odds that are similar to those being offered in the metropolitan areas.

I have run up the results of the Wizard 100 pointers (Wrat) at each of these course classifications, that started at odds of 10/1 or less. (This keeps the analysis consistent with the many stat reports that we include in Wizard Plus that use this odds restriction to eliminate statistical noise.)

The results for the 2022-2023 season:

A tracks           1668 races        416 winners  25%

B tracks           1869 races        495 winners  26.5%

C tracks           4133 races      1079 winners  26%

D tracks           5934 races      1687 winners  28%

E tracks           2309 races        679 winners  29%

There are good reasons why this is so, and I will address these in a later article.

The bottom line: Don't ignore the provincial and country racing wagering opportunities.

Wiz-Ed

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines trainers 11 to 20 on Victorian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

Wiz-Ed

                          Wizard Trainers Notebook Trainers 11 to 20 in the Victorian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table