Group racing stats - help for the Specialist

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 17 November 2023.

  • Better betting - Specialise - Group racing.
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Better betting - Specialise - a practical approach.

Yesterday, I commenced a series of articles I plan to write dealing with the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

In these first articles I will be providing you with some basic information that I hope will help you find the areas of form analysis on which you might wish to concentrate.

First cab off the rank was a breakdown of the types/classes of races run on Sydney metropolitan tracks. Today, the Melbourne breakdown.


                           Race classes and types Melbourne Metropolitan 2022-2023 racing season

age.sexClassracesage .sexClassracesage.sexClassracesage.sexClassraces
2yoGroup 112yoFGroup 213yoGroup 143yoFGroup 12
2yoGroup 212yoFGroup 333yoGroup 273yoFGroup 26
2yoGroup 33 Gr Total43yoGroup 3103yoFGroup 39
 Gr Total152yoF2F-SWP1 Gr Total32 Gr Total23
2yoOpen21   3yoOpen323yoFOpen9
2yo2yo SW5   3yoSW SWP103yoFBm 0-6411
      3yoBm 0-64203yoFBm 0-703
      3yoBm 0-70183yoFBm 0-784
      3yoBm 0-782 Bm Total18
       Bm Total403yoFMaiden3
3yo+Group 122F&M MSGroup 11      
3yo+Group 216F&M MSGroup 26      
3yo+Group 320F&M MSGroup 312      
3yo+Listed34F&M MSListed1      
3yo+Gr Total92 Gr Total20      
3yo+Open34F&M MSOpen4      
3yo+Bm 0-6485F&MBm 0-6410      
3yo+Bm 0-70106F&MBm 0-7052      
3yo+Bm 0-7861F&MBm 0-7813      
3yo+Bm 0-809F&MBm 0-843      
3yo+Bm 0-8439F&MBm 0-904      
3yo+Bm 0-907 Bm Total82      
3yo+Bm 0-961         
3yo+Bm 0-10017         
3yo+Bm Total325         
3yo+Class 117         


Melbourne runs 112 all age Group races which can be added to the 86 in Sydney, making a total of 198 Group opportunities, with more to be added when I cover the other states in coming days.

A focus on Group racing is just one area of specialisation that you can exploit. Others are: geographical (local and preferred/limited interstate), level (metropolitan, provincial, country), trainers (but not individual jockeys), trainer/jockey combinations, types and classes of races, various form factors (specialising on horses with proven form cycles, distance specialists, speed mappers, etc), market movers (matching with form/ratings), switchers (distance, class, location). The list of possibilities is extensive. (And you can specialise in more than one area, of course.)

To assist you in specialisation Wizard Plus already provides relevant information.

For example, with respect to Group racing Wizard Plus, under its Stats and Facts menu option has the following: (Note only an extract is shown here as the tables are extensive.)


Group Stats

1VILANA00.000.0240.01100.0311 27.3
2I AM ME00.0150.01100.0125.0333.3
3STRAIT ACER000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0
4BANDERSNATCH00.000.0120.0337.5420 20.0
5SKEW WIFF133.300.0150.0000.0222.2
6THE INFERNO210 20.0375.0150.000.0619 31.6


Jockey Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

 Group 1Group 2Group 3ListedTotal
1Damien Oliver228 7.1022 0.0332 9.4226 7.77108 6.5
2Blake Shinn128 3.6228 7.1845 17.8534 14.716135 11.9
3Mark Zahra430 13.3529 17.2432 12.5328 10.716119 13.4
4Jordan Childs012 0.0114 7.1326 11.5633 18.21085 11.8
5Craig Williams430 13.3332 9.4543 11.6548 10.417153 11.1
6Jake Noonan00.000.000.0225.0218 11.1


Jockey Trainer/Runner/Metro/Group 1 for Last 15 Years Stats

 TrainerHorseMetroGroup 1 Last 15y
1Damien Oliver1921.0250.042 35012.047520 9.0
2Blake Shinn1625.0000.068 41416.419323 5.9
3Mark Zahra000.0000.033 22214.925323 7.7
4Jordan Childs080.0030.033 25413.0157 1.8
5Craig Williams000.0000.043 35112.353577 9.2
6Jake Noonan175.9020.0924.3111 9.1


Trainer Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

 Group 1Group 2Group 3ListedTotal
1JAMES CUMMINGS745 15.61345 28.91581 18.51176 14.546247 18.6
2CIARON MAHER & DAVID EUSTACE1095 10.5656 10.7783 8.41597 15.538331 11.5
3EDWARD CUMMINGS00.000.0116.700.0119 5.3
4MICHAEL, WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES022 0.0132 3.1440 10.0121 4.86115 5.2
5MARK WALKER928 32.1836 22.2950 18.0759 11.933173 19.1
6CLIFF BROWN00.000.000.0211 18.2227 7.4


Trainer Jockey/Metro/Group 1 for Last 15 Years Stats

 JockeyMetroGroup 1 Last 15y
1JAMES CUMMINGS1921.099 53118.643385 11.2
2CIARON MAHER & DAVID EUSTACE1625.0154 106614.430313 9.6
3EDWARD CUMMINGS000.07111.3337 8.1
4MICHAEL, WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES080.045 38111.823383 6.0
5MARK WALKER000.013 4131.71182 13.4
6CLIFF BROWN175.96913.0014 0.0


Sire Stats - Track Conditions / Trainer / Group

 GoodWetTrainerGroup 1
1HALLOWED CROWNAll136102513.3%10485812.1%3013921.6%2238.7%
2I AM INVINCIBLEAll1062642716.5%479373312.8%6527323.8%1914613.0%
4CASINO PRINCEAll335309810.8%214184711.6%62920.7%0170.0%
6HOLY ROMAN EMPERORAll11712369.5%597557.8%1175.9%21711.8%


Sire Stats - Group by Age

 Group 1Group 2Group 3Listed
1HALLOWED CROWN2yo010.0%010.0%030.0%020.0%
1HALLOWED CROWN3yo1520.0%030.0%21612.5%11010.0%
1HALLOWED CROWN4yo+1175.9%2728.6%1119.1%21315.4%
2I AM INVINCIBLE2yo0300.0%4478.5%97312.3%165827.6%
2I AM INVINCIBLE3yo94818.8%116616.7%1210211.8%1312410.5%
2I AM INVINCIBLE4yo+106814.7%126917.4%91177.7%3320815.9%
4CASINO PRINCE2yo   020.0%020.0%   
4CASINO PRINCE3yo030.0%010.0%1520.0%1616.7%
4CASINO PRINCE4yo+0140.0%0220.0%63517.1%84717.0%


As you can see there is a wealth of relevant information in these Wizard Plus reports. In addition to these reports, early in the new year we plan to make available Wizard Plus reports that identify horses that are favoured under many areas of Specialisation on a meeting by meeting basis, covering metropolitan, provincial, and country racing, seven days a week.



Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines the top 10 trainers on South Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.



                        Wizard - Trainer's Notebook -  The top ten trainers in the South Australian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Richard, Chantelle JollyInsufficient datadays since last win 30-60days since last run 22-28
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last win 8-14
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 15-21
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0days since last win 22-28
  runs from a spell: 3rd upField Strength -5.0 or more
   Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 6th up
Michael HickmottInsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 22-28
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0weight change: -3.5 or more
  runs from a spell: 1st up 
  weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg 
  dist change: +101 to +300m 
G Richards, D MoyleInsufficient dataField Strength -2.5 to -1.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0runs from a spell: 3rd up
  runs from a spell: 3rd upweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kgdist change: +301 to +500m
  dist change: +101 to +300m 
L Macdonald, A Gluyrsruns from a spell: 2nd updays since last run 1-7days since last win 8-14
  days since last run 22-28days since last win 22-28
  days since last run 61-179Field Strength -5.0 or more
  days since last win 8-14Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  days since last win 22-28dist change:  -300 to -101m
  Field Strength -5.0 or more 
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
David JollyInsufficient datadays since last win 180-365days since last run 61-179
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5days since last run 180-365
  runs from a spell: 2nd updays since last win 8-14
  runs from a spell: 3rd updays since last win 30-60
   Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
W Clarken,  N O'SheaInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14
   Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
   dist change: +101 to +300m
Ryan BalfourInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21Field Strength -5.0 or more
  Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0runs from a spell: 2nd up
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0 
  runs from a spell: 2nd up 
  weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg 
B, W, JD HayesInsufficient datadays since last run 30-60days since last run 8-14
  days since last win 15-21days since last win 22-28
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 180-365
  Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0days since last win 22-28
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 1st
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
  runs from a spell: 2nd upruns from a spell: 4th up
  dist change: +101 to +300mruns from a spell: 6th up
   weight change: -3.5 or more
   dist change: -300 to -101m
Chris BiegInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last run 1-7
  days since last win 61-179days since last run 15-21
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 61-179
  runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength -0.5 to +0.5
  runs from a spell: 1st upField Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  dist change: +101 to +300mprevious beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 4th up
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5