Group Racing - Dive deeper

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 18 November 2023.

  • Better betting - Specialise - Group racing, deeper dive.
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.


Better betting - Specialise - Group racing, dive deeper.

In this  series of articles I am dealing with the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

In the first of these articles I will be providing you with some basic information that I hope will help you find the areas of form analysis on which you might wish to concentrate.

Today, details of the class/type of races run on the Brisbane metropolitan tracks.

                              Race classes and types Brisbane Metropolitan 2022-2023 racing season

2yoGroup 112yoFListed23yoGroup 113yoFGroup 11
2yoGroup 22 Gr Total23yoGroup 213yoFGroup 21
2yoGroup 312yoFOpen13yoGroup 353yoFListed2
2yoListed52yoFSW SWP23yoListed43yoFGr Total4
2yoGr Total92yoFMaiden23yoGr Total113yoFOpen2
2yoOpen21   3yoOpen273yoFSW1
2yoSW SWP4   3yoSW SWP73yoFBm 0-721
2yoClass 11   3yoClass 113yoFMaiden3
2yoMaiden12   3yoBm 0-652   
      3yoBm 0-684   
      3yoBm 0-701   
      3yoBm 0-7210   
      3yoBn Total17   
3yo+Group 14   F&MGroup 11   
3yo+Group 24   F&MGroup 21   
3yo+Group 3 7   F&MGroup 31   
3yo+Listed17   F&MListed5   
3yo+Gr Total32   F&MGr Total8   
3yo+Open34   F&MOpen2   
3yo+Bm 0-6525   F&MClass 13   
3yo+Bm 0-6827   F&MClass 34   
3yo+Bm 0-7029   F&MClass 61   
3yo+Bm 0-7218   F&MBm 0-652   
3yo+Bm 0-7519   F&MBm 0-701   
3yo+Bm 0-7836   F&MBm 0-722   
3yo+Bm 0-8010   F&MBm 0-752   
3yo+Bm 0-8520   F&MBm 0-783   
3yo+Bm 0-9015   F&MBm 0-801   
3yo+Bm Total199   F&MNm02   
3yo+Class 125   F&MMaiden7   
3yo+Class 210         
3yo+Class 342         
3yo+Class 415         
3yo+Class 510         
3yo+Class 638         


Brisbane runs 40 all age Group races which can be added to the 86 in Sydney and the 112 in Melbourne, making a total of 238 Group opportunities, with more to be added when I cover other states in coming days.

A focus on Group racing is just one area of specialisation that you can exploit. Others are: geographical (local and preferred/limited interstate), level (metropolitan, provincial, country), trainers (but not individual jockeys), trainer/jockey combinations, types and classes of races, various form factors (specialising on horses with proven form cycles, distance specialists, speed mappers, etc), market movers (matching with form/ratings), switchers (distance, class, location). The list of possibilities is extensive. (And you can specialise in more than one area, of course.)

To assist you in specialisation, Wizard Plus already provides relevant information.

Yesterday, I provided some examples from Wizard Plus, under its Stats and Facts menu option. (Note only an extract is shown as the tables and race details are extensive.)

Today, I will show you how you can drill deeper into the details of these key statistics. 

First, the Group stats for the runners in the race.

Group Stats

1VILANA00.000.0240.01100.0311 27.3
2I AM ME00.0150.01100.0125.0333.3
3STRAIT ACER000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0
4BANDERSNATCH00.000.0120.0337.5420 20.0
5SKEW WIFF133.300.0150.0000.0222.2
6THE INFERNO210 20.0375.0150.000.0619 31.6


On the above Wizard Plus stats summary there is an i-button next to the number of starts for each horse. Click on the i-button and a snapshot of the relevant form details are provided.

 Below we can see the details of the three Group 1 races contested by Skew Wiff.

Group 1 Form for Skew Wiff.

Group 1 Stats : 1 Wins, 2 Places, 3 Starts, 33.3 Winning %, 100.0 In the Money %, 3.0 Runs per Win, (Meeting Jockey : CRAIG WILLIAMS)

HAST090923s51400WFA-G114164-4-310.257.04O.P.BossonM W Walker   1:23.00Dragon Leap21
 Tarzino Trophy (G1)
PUK080423g41600FM-G121164-6-523.054.55M. J McNabM W Walker   1:36.00Belclare91
 Nz Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (G1)
TRE180323s516003YO-G121165-5-321.555.06O.P.BossonM W Walker   1:37.00Romancing The Moon81
 Levin Classic (G1)


If you want to see the detailed record of a particular jockey in the race, first go to the Jockey Group Stats (Last 12 Months) option. 

Jockey Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

 Group 1Group 2Group 3ListedTotal
1Damien Oliver228 7.1022 0.0332 9.4226 7.77108 6.5
2Blake Shinn128 3.6228 7.1845 17.8534 14.716135 11.9
3Mark Zahra430 13.3529 17.2432 12.5328 10.716119 13.4
4Jordan Childs012 0.0114 7.1326 11.5633 18.21085 11.8
5Craig Williams430 13.3332 9.4543 11.6548 10.417153 11.1
6Jake Noonan00.000.000.0225.0218 11.1


To get details for a particular jockey, click on the relevant i-button. Below are the (abridged) detailed Group 1 results for Damien Oliver.

Jockey Last 15 Group 1 Starts, then previous 5 wins for Damien Oliver.

Jockey Group1 Stats (last 12 Months) : 2 Wins, 5 Places, 28 Starts, 7.1 Winning %, 25.0 In the Money %, 14.0 Runs per Win, (Riding : VILANA)

FLEM11/11/20232000gWFA-G11121.857.03A & E Cummings5/19/26/1Duais1
 Champions Stakes (G1)   
FLEM11/11/20231600gWFA-G1753.659.04J L Keys30/130/125/1The Inevitable1
 Champions Mile (G1)   
FLEM11/11/20231200gWFA-G111109.158.54Julius Sandhu60/166/160/1Lofty Strike1
 Champions Sprint (G1)   
FLEM09/11/20232500g3F-GP11236.656.02E & D Browne8/18/113/2Basilinna1
 Kennedy Oaks (G1)   
FLEM07/11/20233200gGROUP1232133.556.59M D Moroney30/130/120/1Alenquer1
 Melbourne Cup (G1)   
FLEM04/11/20231200g3YO-G116149.257.05Michael Freedman16/114/116/1Moravia1
 Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1)   
FLEM04/11/20231600gFM-G116105.257.04M, W & J Hawkes15/116/115/1More Secrets1
 Empire Rose Stakes (G1)   


The same investigation can be done for trainers. 

From the Wizard Plus Stats and Facts options for the race, choose the Trainer Group Stats (Last 12 Months) option. 

Trainer Group Stats (Last 12 Months)

 Group 1Group 2Group 3ListedTotal
1JAMES CUMMINGS745 15.61345 28.91581 18.51176 14.546247 18.6
2CIARON MAHER & DAVID EUSTACE1095 10.5656 10.7783 8.41597 15.538331 11.5
3EDWARD CUMMINGS00.000.0116.700.0119 5.3
4MICHAEL, WAYNE & JOHN HAWKES022 0.0132 3.1440 10.0121 4.86115 5.2
5MARK WALKER928 32.1836 22.2950 18.0759 11.933173 19.1
6CLIFF BROWN00.000.000.0211 18.2227 7.4


Once you have this screen, simply click on the i-button against the number of starts relevant to your query; here the record of James Cummings in Group 1 races is provided.

Trainer Last 15 Group 1 starts, then previous 5 wins for James Cummings

Trainer Group1 Stats (last 12 Months) : 7 Wins, 10 Places, 45 Starts, 15.6 Winning %, 37.8 In the Money %, 6.4 Runs per Win, (Meeting Horse : VILANA)

FLEM11/11/20231200gWFA-G11131.356.55J.B.Mc Donald3/19/45/2In Secret1
 Champions Sprint (G1)   
FLEM09/11/20232500g3F-GP11212.356.05J.B.Mc Donald13/87/47/4FZardozi1
 Kennedy Oaks (G1)   
FLEM04/11/20231200g3YO-G116137.057.011Tim Clark11/411/413/4FCylinder1
 Coolmore Stud Stakes (G1)   
RAND28/10/20232000g3YO-G11213.756.51A Hyeronimus5/45/46/4FTom Kitten1
 Spring Champion Stakes (G1)   
RAND14/10/20231600gWFA-G11496.058.55Zac Lloyd20/120/120/1Golden Mile1
 King Charles Iii Stakes (G1)   
RAND30/09/20231600gGROUP11830.355.017B Shinn20/120/115/1Golden Mile1
 Epsom Handicap (G1)   
 Golden Rose (G1)   


As you can see there is a wealth of relevant information in these Wizard Plus reports. In addition to these reports, early in the new year we plan to make available Wizard Plus reports that identify horses that are favoured under many areas of Specialisation on a meeting by meeting basis, covering metropolitan, provincial, and country racing, seven days a week.



Research Trainers Trainers Notebook.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines trainers ranked 11 to 20 on the South Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.



Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 11 to 20 in the South Australian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Peter, Belinda BlanchInsufficient dataInsufficient dataInsufficient data
Peter HardacreInsufficient dataField Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 1-7
  Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 15-21
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   runs from a spell: 4th up
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
Travis DoudleInsufficient datafinish last start: 1stdays since last run 61-179
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 8-14
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 30-60
  runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 5th up
Shane, Cassie OxladeInsufficient dataInsufficient dataInsufficient data
D Clarken, O MacGilvrayInsufficient dataprevious beaten margin: 3.1-5.0finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   weight change: 0.0 to +2.5
John MacmillanInsufficient dataInsufficient dataInsufficient data
C Maher, D Eustacedays since last run 15-21days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-28
 days since last win 15-21days since last win 8-21Field Strength -5.0 or more
 Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0dist change: +301 to +500mfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
 Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5 previous win margin 3.1L plus
 runs from a spell: 2nd up days since last run 15-21
 runs from a spell: 4th up  
 dist change:  -100 to +100m  
Sue, Jason JaenschInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last win 30-60
   days since last win 180-365
   Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0
   Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   weight change: 0.0 to +2.5
Matthew SeyersInsufficient datadist change:  -100 to +100mfinish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   dist change:  -100 to +100m
Jon O'ConnorInsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 1-7
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5days since last run 15-21
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 30-60
  runs from a spell: 1st updays since last win 180-365
  runs from a spell: 3rd upfinish last start: 1st
  dist change: +101 to +300mfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   weight change: -3.0 to -0.5