Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 20 November 2023.

• Better betting - Specialise - Classes and Types of races
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Better betting Specialise Classes and Types of races.

Currently, I am looking at the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

Today, the details of the class/type of races run on the Perth metropolitan tracks.

                      Race classes and types Perth Metropolitan 2022-2023 racing season

Perth hosts 43 all age Group races which can be added to the 86 in Sydney, the 112 in Melbourne, the 40 in Brisbane, and the 24 in Adelaide, making a total of 305 Group opportunities available to the Selective Group race bettor (assuming no 3yo or 2yo Groups are considered).

A focus on Group racing is just one area of specialisation that you can exploit. Others are: geographical (local and preferred/limited interstate), level (metropolitan, provincial, country), trainers (but not individual jockeys), trainer/jockey combinations, types and classes of races, various form factors (specialising on horses with proven form cycles, distance specialists, speed mappers, etc), market movers (matching with form/ratings), switchers (distance, class, location). The list of possibilities is extensive. (And you can specialise in more than one area, of course.)

Yesterday, I illustrated how the quality of the all-age Group races varied across the mainland states in the 2022-2023 racing season as measured by Wizards post-race field strength. This analysis is based on my final class figures for these Group races, after I had completed the Q (quality) re-rating after the event. This is the process we go thorough to ensure that the Wizard base ratings are as accurate as possible. We do not simply use a formula to calculate a post-race base rating. Every race in Australia is re-analysed after the event and a quality level assigned.

Over recent days I have been published data in the Wizard Trainers Notebook that shows which trainers have out-performed on a number of form factors and form metrics. One of these relates to the change in Field Strength between races, as published in the Wizard. With respect to 4yo+ racing the following results emerged when we analysed the top 100 trainers across the mainland states and Tasmania.

Wizard Field Strength (variation from last race)

-5.0kg or more            12

-4.5 to -3.0                   10

-2.5 to -1.0                     8

-0.5 to +0.5                    9

+1.0 to +2.5                 12

+3.0 to +4.5                 16

+5.0kg or more            10

One interesting point to emerge from this analysis is that, for these top 100 trainers at any rate, moving a horse into a tougher race has not been a negative. A total score of 38 (for +1.0kg or harder races) out-performs a score of 30 when the horse races in a weaker field (-1.0kg or more). Individual trainers naturally will vary and that is the point of the Trainers Notebook, to highlight individual stable performance. That said, the overall result is still interesting and relevant, and the Wizard Field Strength will be discussed in more depth later in this series.

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines trainers ranked 11 to 20 on the Western Australia metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                            Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 11 to 20 in the Western Australia 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.