Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 21 November 2023.

• Form cycle - Runs from a spell - First-up.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Better betting - Specialise - Form cycle, runs from a spell.

Currently, I am looking at the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

Today, we commence a discussion on the form cycle of the racehorse and how one could specialise in this area of form analysis.

Form Cycle - First-up

One of the essential skills of form analysis is the ability to evaluate a horses' level of fitness. By carefully considering its past history, barrier trial form, and the manner in which it ran its most recent races we can come to a logical conclusion about its level of fitness. 

Back from a Spell 

Some horses come to hand very quickly. Horses with ability often win at their first, second, or third starts after returning from a spell. Many trainers will aim to capitalise on the freshness of their horse and set them to win at this early stage of a preparation.

Indeed, some trainers, are "first-up specialists". How can we recognize a potential first- up winner? 

First-Up 

Relatively few horses are capable of registering a first- up win against a field of similar-class, race-fit gallopers. Those that are, have often done so in the past. 

Search the horse's performance history. If the horse has won first-up previously it is quite likely that its trainer will attempt to repeat the performance. History often repeats itself on the racecourse. (The Wizard provides details about the horses record at a number of runs since a spell.)

To assist in your understanding of the first-up galloper, the first-up form of every 3yo and older horse trained by ten of Sydney's top trainers over a period of three years was analysed. (Note: This analysis does not reflect the current premiership standings.)

When studying the following figures remember you are seeing the efforts of some of the top people in their profession. The less successful stables can be expected to produce lower strike rates than those you see below.

The figures show the performance of first-up horses under various criteria and come in two categories; all first-up runners irrespective of odds, and only those first-up horses which have a starting price of 10/1 or less. The latter category is the more meaningful because these horses have obviously been supported in the market and could have been expected to perform creditably.

Table 1  - First-up winners

(3yo and older)  (1000m-1300m)

              <= 10/1   any odds

Year 1      22%         13%

Year 2      20%         11%

Year 3      19%          9%               

As you can see from table 1 the figures are quite stable on a year-to-year basis. Also, the message is clear from table 1 that you should concentrate on those first-up horses which are in the market to maximize your chance of success.

With respect to the sex of the horse it seems to make no difference whether the horse is male or female (see table 2).

Table 2 - First-up winners by sex

(3yo and older) (1000m - 1300m)

                  <= 10/1      any odds

females        23%          10%

males           22%          12%

Table 3 shows that the age of the galloper is not an especially significant factor, except that horses 7yo and older from even these top stables have poor prospects when resuming. 

Table 3 - First-up winners (age)                     

(3yo and older)  (1000m-1300m)

Age        <= 10/1      any odds

3yo           20%            10%

4yo           28%            14%

5yo           23%           10%

6yo           22%           12%

7yo+          0                  0

Table 4 that shows first-up horses are only half as likely to win on heavy tracks. This fact is worth bearing in mind.

Table 4 First-up winners (State of Track)

(3yo and older) (1000m - 1300m)

SOT           <= 10/1     any odds

good               23%          11%

soft                 26%          13%

heavy             13%           8%

Finally, from the Wizard Trainers Notebook currently published here in the Daily Report, we found that the following top 10 Sydney trainers in 2022-2023 had an Impact Value of 1.3 or better under the freshness criteria:

Chris Waller                  2yo - 1st up from a spell

                                      2yo - days since last run 61-179

James Cummings       3yo - days since last run 180-365

                                      3yo+ - days since last run 180-365

C Maher, D Eustace    3yo - days since last run 180-365

Annabel Neasham      3yo - 1st up from a spell

Joseph Pride                3yo+ - days since last run 61-365

                                      3yo+ - 1st up from a spell

M, W, J Hawkes          2yo - 1st up from a spell

                                      3yo+ - 1st up from a spell

                                      3yo+ - days since last run 61-365

John O'Shea                3yo - days since last run 180-365

Tomorrow I will continue this discussion.

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research Trainers Trainers Notebook.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines trainers ranked 1 to 10 on the Tasmanian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

First, an apology. There was a typo in the Hayes' Stable Trainers Notebook. Two entries were listed as last wins, rather than last runs. Below, is the correct version.

                    Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 10 in the Tasmanian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.