Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 22 November 2023.

• Form cycle - Runs from a spell - Second-up.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Form cycle, runs from a spell.

Currently, I am looking at the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

Today, we continue a discussion on the form cycle of the racehorse and how one could specialise in this area of form analysis.

Second-Up

When considering the possibility of a second-start success, firstly look for similar success in the past. If the horse has come to hand quickly in the past it may do so again. 

 Next consider the first-up effort of the galloper and its preparation in barrier trials prior to resuming. If the horse was well conditioned prior to its first-up run; was not overtaxed and flattened at its first start; was given time to recover and regain its racing edge; and is placed in a race to suit, then it is a possible winner. 

On the other hand, a horse not fit, given a hard first-up race, and then produced seven days later is a probable loser. Also, beware of the horse that won first-up at long odds - often this galloper fails to reproduce this winning form at its next start.   

To assist in your understanding of the second-upper, the second-up form of every 3yo and older horse trained by ten of Sydney's top trainers over a period of three years was analysed. (Note: This analysis does not reflect the current premiership standings.)

When studying the following figures remember you are seeing the efforts of some of the top people in their profession. The less successful stables can be expected to produce lower strike rates than those you see below.

The figures show the performance of second-up horses under several criteria and come in two categories; all second-up runners irrespective of odds, and only those second-up horses which have a starting price of 10/1 or less. The latter category is the more meaningful because these horses have obviously been fancied by the market and could have been expected to perform creditably. 

Table 1 -  Second-up winners

(3yo and older)  (1200m-1500m)

                 <= 10/1    any odds

Year 1          12%          6% 

Year 2          17%         10%

Year 3          24%        12%               

As you can see from table 1 the figures are reasonably stable on a year-to-year basis, although the male gallopers in year 3 seem to have performed above expectations. I think the long-term figure for these male gallopers is likely to come closer to the 17% registered in year 2. 

Table 2 - Second-up winners by sex

(3yo and older) (1200m - 1500m)

                <= 10/1      any odds

females      14%           7%

males         20%          11%

With respect to the sex of the horse it seems that the male galloper is better able to back up after a hard first-up run (see table 2).

Table 3 - Second-up winners (age) 

(3yo and older)  (1200m-1500m)

           <= 10/1     any odds

3yo        20%         11%

4yo        16%         9% 

5yo        13%          7%

6yo       17%*        10%* 

7yo+       0%          0%

Table 3 shows that the age of the galloper is not an especially significant factor except that horses 7yo and older are poor risks. The 6yo statistic highlighted by an * should be treated with caution as the sample size was too small to produce a reliable figure.

Table 4 - Second-up winners (state of track)

(3yo and older) (1200m - 1500m)

               <= 10/1      any odds

good         18%            9%

soft           18%          12%

heavy       17%            9%

Unlike the case of first-up gallopers the presence of a heavy track has not had an adverse impact on the performance of second-up gallopers.

Table 5 - Second-up winners (days since last run) 

(3yo and older)  (1200m-1500m)

             <= 10/1    any odds 

   1- 7        na           na

  8-14      18%        10%

15-21       18%          9%

22-28       16%*         8%

The table-5 shows the number of days between the first-up and second-up runs.

The number of runs in the 1-7 days category was just too low for any meaningful interpretation. Also, a small sample sizes clouded the issue with respect to 22-28 days. Basically, a two to three week break after a first-up run appears to be the norm. 

Table 6 - Second-up winners (first-up winner, beaten margins)

(3yo and older) (1200m - 1500m)

                       <= 10/1      any odds

1-up winner          21%          18% 

0.1- 3.0 len           21%          15%

3.1- 5.0 len           12%            7%

5.1-10.0 len          14%            5%

The beaten margin analysis indicates those horses which won or finished within three lengths of the winner in the first-up run are the preferred gallopers second-up.

In conclusion, if a galloper is already proven second-up, that should be seen as a positive sign. In general, male gallopers are preferred over female gallopers. The other factor of significance is that the horse should be in the market. If the odds are longer than 10/1 you should be looking elsewhere.

Finally, from our current Wizard Trainers Notebook we found that the following top 20 Sydney trainers in 2022-2023 had an Impact Value of 1.3 or better with horses second-up.

C Maher, D Eustace         2yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

G Ryan, S Alexiou            3yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Peter, Paul Snowden      2yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Kris Lees                            2yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Brad Widdup                   3yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

                                           4yo+ - runs from a spell: 2nd up

John Sargent                    4yo+ - runs from a spell: 2nd up

David Payne                     3yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Sydney metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red.

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                        Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 in the Sydney 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.