Specialise - Form Cycle - Second-up.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 22 November 2023.

  • Form cycle - Runs from a spell - Second-up.
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Form cycle, runs from a spell.

Currently, I am looking at the issue of the amount of horse racing on offer, and how we might find a way to focus on certain special circumstances where we can exploit a general lack of information.

Today, we continue a discussion on the form cycle of the racehorse and how one could specialise in this area of form analysis.

Second-Up

When considering the possibility of a second-start success, firstly look for similar success in the past. If the horse has come to hand quickly in the past it may do so again. 

 Next consider the first-up effort of the galloper and its preparation in barrier trials prior to resuming. If the horse was well conditioned prior to its first-up run; was not overtaxed and flattened at its first start; was given time to recover and regain its racing edge; and is placed in a race to suit, then it is a possible winner. 

On the other hand, a horse not fit, given a hard first-up race, and then produced seven days later is a probable loser. Also, beware of the horse that won first-up at long odds - often this galloper fails to reproduce this winning form at its next start.   

To assist in your understanding of the second-upper, the second-up form of every 3yo and older horse trained by ten of Sydney's top trainers over a period of three years was analysed. (Note: This analysis does not reflect the current premiership standings.)

When studying the following figures remember you are seeing the efforts of some of the top people in their profession. The less successful stables can be expected to produce lower strike rates than those you see below.

The figures show the performance of second-up horses under several criteria and come in two categories; all second-up runners irrespective of odds, and only those second-up horses which have a starting price of 10/1 or less. The latter category is the more meaningful because these horses have obviously been fancied by the market and could have been expected to perform creditably. 

Table 1 -  Second-up winners

(3yo and older)  (1200m-1500m)

                 <= 10/1    any odds

Year 1          12%          6% 

Year 2          17%         10%

Year 3          24%        12%               

As you can see from table 1 the figures are reasonably stable on a year-to-year basis, although the male gallopers in year 3 seem to have performed above expectations. I think the long-term figure for these male gallopers is likely to come closer to the 17% registered in year 2. 

 

Table 2 - Second-up winners by sex

(3yo and older) (1200m - 1500m)

                <= 10/1      any odds

females      14%           7%

males         20%          11%

With respect to the sex of the horse it seems that the male galloper is better able to back up after a hard first-up run (see table 2).

 

Table 3 - Second-up winners (age) 

(3yo and older)  (1200m-1500m)

           <= 10/1     any odds

3yo        20%         11%

4yo        16%         9% 

5yo        13%          7%

6yo       17%*        10%* 

7yo+       0%          0%

Table 3 shows that the age of the galloper is not an especially significant factor except that horses 7yo and older are poor risks. The 6yo statistic highlighted by an * should be treated with caution as the sample size was too small to produce a reliable figure.

 

Table 4 - Second-up winners (state of track)

(3yo and older) (1200m - 1500m)

               <= 10/1      any odds

good         18%            9%

soft           18%          12%

heavy       17%            9%

Unlike the case of first-up gallopers the presence of a heavy track has not had an adverse impact on the performance of second-up gallopers.

 

Table 5 - Second-up winners (days since last run) 

(3yo and older)  (1200m-1500m)

             <= 10/1    any odds 

   1- 7        na           na

  8-14      18%        10%

15-21       18%          9%

22-28       16%*         8%

The table-5 shows the number of days between the first-up and second-up runs.

The number of runs in the 1-7 days category was just too low for any meaningful interpretation. Also, a small sample sizes clouded the issue with respect to 22-28 days. Basically, a two to three week break after a first-up run appears to be the norm. 

 

Table 6 - Second-up winners (first-up winner, beaten margins)

(3yo and older) (1200m - 1500m)

                       <= 10/1      any odds

1-up winner          21%          18% 

0.1- 3.0 len           21%          15%

3.1- 5.0 len           12%            7%

5.1-10.0 len          14%            5%

The beaten margin analysis indicates those horses which won or finished within three lengths of the winner in the first-up run are the preferred gallopers second-up.

In conclusion, if a galloper is already proven second-up, that should be seen as a positive sign. In general, male gallopers are preferred over female gallopers. The other factor of significance is that the horse should be in the market. If the odds are longer than 10/1 you should be looking elsewhere.

Finally, from our current Wizard Trainers Notebook we found that the following top 20 Sydney trainers in 2022-2023 had an Impact Value of 1.3 or better with horses second-up.

C Maher, D Eustace         2yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

G Ryan, S Alexiou            3yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Peter, Paul Snowden      2yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Kris Lees                            2yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Brad Widdup                   3yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

                                           4yo+ - runs from a spell: 2nd up

John Sargent                    4yo+ - runs from a spell: 2nd up

David Payne                     3yo - runs from a spell: 2nd up

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

 

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Sydney metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red.

Warren

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

 

                        Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 in the Sydney 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Chris Wallerdays since last run 30-60finish last start: 1stdays since last run 1-7
 days since last run 61-179previous win margin 3.1L plusdays since last win 8-21
 runs from a spell: 1st updist change: +301 to +500mField Strength +5.0 and higher
 Field Strength +3.0 and higher finish last start: 1st
 finish last start: 1st previous win margin 3.1-5.0
    
Gai Waterhouse, A Bottdays since last run 8-14days since last run 22-28days since last run 1-7
 days since last win 8-21runs from a spell: 4th upruns from spell: first race start
 previous win margin 3.1L plusweight change: up 3-4.5Kgruns from a spell: 3rd up
 dist change: +101 to +300mField Strength -5.0 or moredays since last win 8-14
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 22-28
  previous win margin 3.1-5.0Field Strength +5.0 and higher
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 1st
   previous win margin 3.1-5.0
   dist change: +301 to +500m
    
James Cummingsdays since last win 30-60days since last run 180-365days since last run 180-365
 Field Strength -5.0 or moreField Strength +1 to +2.5days since last win 15-21
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 22-28
  previous win margin 3.1-5.0finish last start: 1st
  dist change: +301 to +500mruns from a spell: 3rd up
  weight change: -3.5 or more 
    
C Maher, D Eustacedays since last run 15-21days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-14
 days since last win 15-21days since last win 8-14days since last win 22-28
 Field Strength -2.5 to -1days since last win 15-21Field Strength -5.0 or more
 Field Strength +1 to +2.5dist change: +301 to +500mfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
 runs from a spell: 2nd up previous win margin 3.1L plus
 runs from a spell: 4th up weight change: +5.0 or more
 dist change:  -100 to +100m  
    
Bjorn Bakerdays since last run 15-21days since last run 1-7days since last win 8-14
 finish last start: 1stField Strength -5.0 or moredays since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rdweight change: +3.0 to -4.5kgField Strength -3.0 or more
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0dist change:  -300 to -101mfinish last start: 1st
 runs from a spell: 3rd up weight change: +3.0 or more
 weight change: -3.0 to -0.5kg  
    
Annabel Neashamdays since last run 8-21days since last win 8-14days since last run 15-21
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 180-365days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rdField Strength -4.5 to -1.0days since last win 30-60
 runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 1st upfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
 weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg runs from a spell: 4th up
 dist change:  -100 to +100m dist change:  +301 to +500m
    
Joseph Prideinsufficient datadays since last win 8-14days since last run 61-365
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-21
  Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 30-60
  finish last start: 1struns from a spell: 1st up
  runs from a spell: 4th upweight change: +5.0 or more
    
M, W, J Hawkesdays since last run 61-179days since last win 15-21days since last run 1-7
 Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last run 30-60
 runs from a spell: 1st updist change:  -300 to -101mdays since last run 180-365
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rd days since last win 8-21
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 1st up
    
G Ryan, S Alexiouinsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last win 8-14
  days since last run 22-28days since last win 15-21
  days since last win 15-21Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  days since last win 30-60finish last start: 1st
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5 
  runs from a spell: 2nd up 
  runs from a spell: 4th up 
    
John O'Sheadays since last run 15-21days since last run 30-60days since last run 8-14
 Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-14
  days since last win 8-14days since last win 15-21
  days since last win 22-28Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  previous win margin 3.1-5.0finish last start: 1st
  dist change:  -300 to -101mdist change:  +301 to +500m
    
Peter, Paul Snowdendays since last run 8-14days since last run 180-365days since last run 180-365
 days since last win 15-21days since last win 8-14days since last win 15-21
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 15-21days since last win 30-60
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rdweight change: +3.0 to +4.5finish last start: 1st
 runs from a spell: 2nd up  
    
Kris Leesdays since last run 22-28days since last win 8-14days since last run 1-7
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5previous win margin 3.1-5.0days since last run 180-365
 runs from a spell: 2nd upweight change: +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 8-14
   days since last win 22-28
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous win margin 3.1-5.0
   weight change: +5.0 higher
    
Matthew Smithinsufficient datadays since last run 180-365days since last run 1-7
  days since last win 8-14days since last win 22-28
  Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
  Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  finish last start: 1st 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
    
Brad Widdupinsufficient datadays since last win 15-21days since last win 15-21
  runs from a spell: 1st updays since last win 8-14
  runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength -2.5 to -1.0
  dist change: +101 to +300mruns from a spell: 2nd up
   weight change: 0.0 to +2.5
    
John Sargentruns from spell: first race startdays since last win 8-14days since last run 22-28
 weight change: 0.0 to +2.5days since last win 15-21days since last win 8-14
  days since last win 22-28days since last win 180-365
  days since last win 180-365Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  Field Strength -3.0 or morefinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  finish last start: 1struns from a spell: 2nd up
  runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 5th up
  runs from a spell: 4th upruns from a spell: 6th up
    
    
    
David Paynedays since last run 8-14days since last win 8-14days since last run 1-7
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 30-60days since last win 30-60
 runs from a spell: 3rd upField Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -4.5 to -1.0
 weight change: -3.0 to -0.5finish last start: 1struns from a spell: 3rd up
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddist change:  +301 to +500m
  runs from a spell: 2nd up 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
  dist change:  +301 to +500m 
    
Michael Freedmaninsufficient datadays since last run 61-179insufficient data
  runs from a spell: 1st up 
    
John Thompsoninsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 180-365
  days since last win 30-60days since last win 30-179
  days since last win 61-179Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdruns from a spell: 5th up
  runs from a spell: 1st up 
    
Nathan Doyleinsufficient datadays since last run 22-28days since last run 15-21
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 15-21
  previous win margin 0.1-3.0Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
    
Matthew Dunndays since last run 8-14days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-14
 weight change: +0.0 to +2.5days since last win 8-14previous win margin 3.1-5.0
  days since last win 15-21weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  days since last win 22-28dist change:  +301 to +500m
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  weight change: -3.0 or more 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 

 

 



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