Specialise - The Distance Factor.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 25 November 2023.

  • The Distance Factor
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook Enhanced.

 

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we begin a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis.

First up, a general discussion of this distance factor.

The Distance Factor

Most horses produce their best ratings within a specific distance range. Generally, we can classify  gallopers into four categories with respect to their ability to successfully compete over difference distances. 

The Sprinter

This galloper specializes in the shorter races. Sprint races are contested over distances ranging from 900m or 1000m up to 1500m or 1600 metres. Although it is not uncommon to find horses capable of winning races throughout this range of distances, particularily as they get older, it is equally likely that you will find specialists within this distance range. 

For example, some speedy gallopers possess little stamina find it difficult to win beyond 1000m. Similarly, stronger horses which are capable of registering good performances over 1200m or 1400m are found wanting at the end of a searching 1600m race. 

You will also find within this general category of sprinters, those gallopers with sufficient stamina to run a solid 1500m or 1600m but lacking the brilliance to successfully match strides with the flying 1200m specialist. 

The Middle Distance Horse

This galloper registers its best performances when contesting races run over 1800m to 2200m. This horse can show to advantage in a 1600m race when it is still fresh and sharp in the early stage of its campaign, but it generally reserves its best performances for those middle distances mentioned above. 

With increasing age the middle distance horse can often increase its distance range and take on the stayers in 2400m events. 

The Stayer

The true stayer relishes the longer distances. It will normally produce its best form when racing over distances from 2400m to 3200m. However, if it possesses the ability to keep in touch with the leaders in a quickly run race over 2000m and is then able to produce a strong finishing burst, it is often capable of scoring over this shorter distance. If, on the other hand it is one paced, it will more often than not perform indifferently at these shorter distances. 

The Versatile Horse

This galloper is capable of scoring over distances ranging from (say) 1200m to (say) 2400m. Normally these horses possess more than a touch of class and it is uncommon to find a moderate performer which can successfully contest widely varying distances during a single campaign

The importance of a horse racing over its "correct distance" cannot be over emphasized. 

Within the categories listed above, some horses have a "pet distance" where their ratings exceed those returned over any other trip. 

Within the "Sprinters" category you will find pure speed horses who cannot win beyond 1000m. There are also brilliant sprinters which lack the stamina to compete successfully beyond 1200m. Then there are strong sprinters who race best at 1400m and, of course, "milers" whose pet distance is 1600m. 

One of the first steps in pre-race analysis must be to examine the ability of each of the runners to win over the distance of the forthcoming race. Huge sums are wagered (and lost) on horses racing over unsuitable distances.

 

Sydney top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Whilst discussing the distance factor it is interesting to look at the performance of the top 20 trainers in Sydney in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Sydney top 20 trainers in 2022-2023 - Distance results profile

 to 1199m1200-1399m1400-1699m1700-1899m1900-2199m2200-2500mover 2500m
Chris Waller160   919  17.4%585  3109  18.8%1090 5705 19.1%209 1031 20.3%376 1909 19.7%192 987 19.5%33  198 16.7%
G Waterhouse, A Bott178   744   23.9%250  1189  21.0%388  1506  25.8%43  156  27.6%89  353  25.2%38  201  18.9%38  133  28.6%
James Cummings384  1752  21.9%496  2171  22.8%268  1365  19.6%22  137  16.1%37  201  18.4%19  62  30.6%8  25  32.0%
Bjorn Baker297  1364  21.8%285  1312  21.7%272  1227  22.2%22  124  17.7%48  229  21.0%22  110  20.0%4  18  22.2%
Annabel Neasham63    304  20.7%82    414  19.8%97  491  19.6%13  74  17.6%33  104  31.7%12  65  18.5%2  7  28.6%
Joseph Pride174  789  22.1%224  1048  21.4%139  749  18.6%6  55  10.9%20  108  18.5%15  62  24.2%2  8  25.0%
M, W, J Hawkes273  1107  24.7%318  1462  21.8%210  1026  20.5%9  70  12.9%31  145  21.4%13  52  25.0%1  12  8.3%
G Ryan, S Alexiou58     259  22.4%75     342  21.9%66  329  20.1%13  37  35.1%8  39  20.5%2  20  10.0%nil
John O'Shea140  656  21.3%342  1587  21.6%315  1443  21.8%36  139  25.9%64  288  22.2%21  110  19.1%1  21  4.8%
P,  P Snowden318  1377  23.1469  2156  21.8%246  1259  19.5%18  94  19.1%28  149  18.8%9  45  29.0%5  17  29.4%
Kris Lees404  1666  24.2%529  2380  22.2%418  2161  19.3%53  273  19.4%99  470  21.1%50 244 20.5%5  36  13.9%
Matthew Smith148  701  21.1%94  563  16.7%123  641  19.2%17  80  21.3%30  171  17.5%18  97  18.6%11  42  26.2%
Brad Widdup81  340  23.8%88  439  20.0%68  343  19.8%11  44  25.0%15  72  20.8%4  13  30.8%0  1  0%
John Sargent29  145  20.0%58  363  16.0%117  575  20.3%20  91  22.0%50  206  24.3%22  114  19.3%9  32  28.1%
David Payne15  92  16.3%25  147  17.0%64  381  16.8%20  89  22.5%27  152  17.8%5  52  9.6%2  11  18.2%
Michael Freedman31  103  30.1%28 116  24.1%14  75  18.7%0  1  0%0  6  0%nilnil
John Thompson45  207  21.7%75 363  20.7%101  523  19.3%8  51  15.7%19  86  22.1%10  47  21.3%0  3  0%
Nathan Doyle56  231  24.2%83  309  26.9%50 227  22.0%4  22  18.2%10  32  31.3%4  11  36.4%0  2  0%
Matthew Dunn199 921  21.6%361  1660  21.7%230  1089  21.1%50  216  23.1%34  122  27.9%11  73  15.1%nil

 

There are some good performances in this data, and some of it coming from the smaller stables.

Again, I think Chris Waller is bedevilled by his multiple runners in a race. Of those lower in the premiership rankings, the results of Michael Fredman, Nathan Doyle, and Matthew Dunn are worth noting.

 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

 

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Brisbane metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                 Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 in the Brisbane 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Tony Gollandays since last run 15-21days since last run 22-28days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 8-14days since last win 22-28
  days since last win 22-28previous win margin: 3.1-5.0
  days since last win 30-60dist change:  -300 to -101m
  days since last win 365+ 
  Field Strength +5.0 and higher 
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
  dist change:  -300 to -101m 
    
Chris Wallerdays since last run 30-60finish last start: 1stdays since last run 1-7
 days since last run 61-179previous win margin 3.1L plusdays since last win 8-21
 runs from a spell: 1st updist change: +301 to +500mField Strength +5.0 and higher
 Field Strength +3.0 and higher finish last start: 1st
 finish last start: 1st previous win margin 3.1-5.0
    
Robert Heathcotedays since last run 8-14days since last win 8-14days since last win 8-14
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 15-21Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
 runs from a spell: 1st upField Strength -0.5 to +0.5Field Strength +5.0 and higher
 runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength +3.0 to +4.5runs from a spell: 5th up
 runs from a spell: 3rd upfinish last start: 1stdist change: +301 to +500m
 weight change: +0.0 to +2.5runs from a spell: 3rd up 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  weight change: -3.5 or more 
    
S O'Dea, M HoystedInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last run 15-21
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last run 30-60
  runs from a spell: 3rd updays since last win 15-21
  weight change: +0.0 to +2.5finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 5th up
   runs from a spell: 6th up
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
    
Matthew Dunndays since last run 8-14days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-14
 weight change: +0.0 to +2.5days since last win 8-14previous win margin 3.1-5.0
  days since last win 15-21weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  days since last win 22-28dist change:  +301 to +500m
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  weight change: -3.0 or more 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
    
David VandykeInsufficient datadays since last run 30-60days since last run 61-179
  days since last win 30-60days since last win 15-21
  Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0days since last win 22-28
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5Field Strength -5.0 or more
  dist change:  -300 to -101mdist change:  -300 to -101m
   dist change:  +301 to +500m
    
Annabel Neashamdays since last run 8-21days since last win 8-14days since last run 15-21
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 180-365days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rdField Strength -4.5 to -1.0days since last win 30-60
 runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 1st upfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
 weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg runs from a spell: 4th up
 dist change:  -100 to +100m dist change:  +301 to +500m
    
Chris Muncefinish last start: 1stdays since last run 30-60days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 15-21Field Strength -5.0 or more
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 180-365Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0
 runs from spell: first race startField Strength +3.0 to +4.5runs from a spell: 5th up
 weight change: -3.0 to -0.5finish last start: 1stweight change: +5.0 or more
 dist change: +101 to +300mruns from a spell: 3rd up 
    
Kelly Schweidadays since last run 22-28days since last run 22-28days since last run 1-7
 Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 30-60days since last run 180-365
 finish last start: 1stdays since last run 180-365days since last win 8-14
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 15-21finish last start: 1st
 runs from a spell: 1st updays since last win 22-28runs from a spell: 6th up
 runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength +3.0 to +4.5weight change: -3.5 or more
 dist change: +101 to +300mfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0 
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5 
  dist change:  -300 to -101m 
    
Barry LockwoodInsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 22-28
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last run 61-179
  runs from a spell: 1st updays since last run 180-365
  runs from a spell: 3rd updays since last win 8-14
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5days since last win 180-365
   previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   dist change:  -100 to +100m
    
Kris Leesdays since last run 22-28days since last win 8-14days since last run 1-7
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5previous win margin 3.1-5.0days since last run 180-365
 runs from a spell: 2nd upweight change: +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 8-14
   days since last win 22-28
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous win margin 3.1-5.0
   weight change: +5.0 higher
    
Jack BruceInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14
   days since last win 15-21
   days since last win 30-60
   days since last win 180-365
   Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   runs from a spell: 6th up
   weight change: -3.0 to -0.5
    
Tony, Maddy Searsdays since last run 15-21days since last run 15-21days since last run 61-179
  days since last win 180-365Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0runs from a spell: 6th up
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  runs from a spell: 2nd updist change: +101 to +300m
  runs from a spell: 3rd up 
  dist change: +101 to +300m 
    
Mark CurrieInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last run 30-60
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 15-21
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdField Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  runs from spell: first race startfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 3rd up
  dist change:  -100 to +100mweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
    
Les Rossdays since last run 1-7days since last run 15-21days since last run 15-21
 days since last run 15-21days since last run 22-28days since last run 22-28
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-14days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 61-179days since last win 22-28
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0days since last win 180-365
 previous win margin 0.1-3.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
 runs from a spell: 3rd upfinish last start: 1stfinish last start: 1st
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdruns from a spell: 3rd up
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0runs from a spell: 4th up
  runs from a spell: 3rd upweight change: -3.0 to -0.5
  runs from a spell: 4th updist change:  -300 to -101m
    
Desleigh ForsterInsufficient dataField Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 22-28
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-14
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 30-60
  runs from a spell: 5th upfinish last start: 1st
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5weight change: -3.0 to -0.5
  dist change: +101 to +300mdist change:  -300 to -101m
    
Stuart Kendrickdays since last run 15-21days since last win 180-365days since last win 15-21
 Field Strength -5.0 or moreField Strength -5.0 or moreField Strength -5.0 or more
 Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5runs from a spell: 4th upruns from a spell: 2nd up
 previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0dist change:  +301 to +500mweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
 runs from a spell: 3rd up weight change: +5.0 higher
 runs from a spell: 4th up  
    
Toby, Trent EdmondsInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14days since last run 22-28
  days since last win 8-14days since last run 180-365
  days since last win 15-21days since last win 15-21
  days since last win 22-28days since last win 22-28
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 1st
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0runs from a spell: 4th up
  runs from a spell: 2nd upweight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
   dist change:  -300 to -101m
    
Lee FreedmanInsufficient dataprevious beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last run 8-14
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   dist change:  -100 to +100m
    
Chris Andersondays since last run 8-14days since last win 22-28days since last run 30-60
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 61-179days since last win 8-14
 runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -5.0 or more
 weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kgfinish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   dist change:  -300 to -101m

 

 



Back