Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 25 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we begin a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis.

First up, a general discussion of this distance factor.

The Distance Factor

Most horses produce their best ratings within a specific distance range. Generally, we can classify  gallopers into four categories with respect to their ability to successfully compete over difference distances. 

The Sprinter

This galloper specializes in the shorter races. Sprint races are contested over distances ranging from 900m or 1000m up to 1500m or 1600 metres. Although it is not uncommon to find horses capable of winning races throughout this range of distances, particularily as they get older, it is equally likely that you will find specialists within this distance range. 

For example, some speedy gallopers possess little stamina find it difficult to win beyond 1000m. Similarly, stronger horses which are capable of registering good performances over 1200m or 1400m are found wanting at the end of a searching 1600m race. 

You will also find within this general category of sprinters, those gallopers with sufficient stamina to run a solid 1500m or 1600m but lacking the brilliance to successfully match strides with the flying 1200m specialist. 

The Middle Distance Horse

This galloper registers its best performances when contesting races run over 1800m to 2200m. This horse can show to advantage in a 1600m race when it is still fresh and sharp in the early stage of its campaign, but it generally reserves its best performances for those middle distances mentioned above. 

With increasing age the middle distance horse can often increase its distance range and take on the stayers in 2400m events. 

The Stayer

The true stayer relishes the longer distances. It will normally produce its best form when racing over distances from 2400m to 3200m. However, if it possesses the ability to keep in touch with the leaders in a quickly run race over 2000m and is then able to produce a strong finishing burst, it is often capable of scoring over this shorter distance. If, on the other hand it is one paced, it will more often than not perform indifferently at these shorter distances. 

The Versatile Horse

This galloper is capable of scoring over distances ranging from (say) 1200m to (say) 2400m. Normally these horses possess more than a touch of class and it is uncommon to find a moderate performer which can successfully contest widely varying distances during a single campaign. 

The importance of a horse racing over its "correct distance" cannot be over emphasized. 

Within the categories listed above, some horses have a "pet distance" where their ratings exceed those returned over any other trip. 

Within the "Sprinters" category you will find pure speed horses who cannot win beyond 1000m. There are also brilliant sprinters which lack the stamina to compete successfully beyond 1200m. Then there are strong sprinters who race best at 1400m and, of course, "milers" whose pet distance is 1600m. 

One of the first steps in pre-race analysis must be to examine the ability of each of the runners to win over the distance of the forthcoming race. Huge sums are wagered (and lost) on horses racing over unsuitable distances.

Sydney top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Whilst discussing the distance factor it is interesting to look at the performance of the top 20 trainers in Sydney in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Sydney top 20 trainers in 2022-2023 - Distance results profile

There are some good performances in this data, and some of it coming from the smaller stables.

Again, I think Chris Waller is bedevilled by his multiple runners in a race. Of those lower in the premiership rankings, the results of Michael Fredman, Nathan Doyle, and Matthew Dunn are worth noting.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Brisbane metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red. 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                 Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 in the Brisbane 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.