Distance - The key distance ranges.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 26 November 2023.

  • The Distance Factor - continued.
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis with a look at the different distance ranges.

The Main Distances

1000 metres:  Races run over these very short distances can be unreliable betting mediums. Quite often the class of the older horses engaged is more suited to the outside tracks than the metropolitan courses.

In addition, weight, the fundamental factor in our quantitative analysis plays a less significant role over these very short courses. The longer the journey, the greater the impact of the handicap weight on the horse and the more reliable will be our quantitative predictions. Other factors tend to make these short races even less attractive as betting propositions.

For example, the fields are often large and interference is common as riders scramble for an in-running position. A check in such a short race can eliminates a horse's winning chance.

Also, a number of natural front runners could contest the same race. An otherwise sound selection could easily lose the race as a result of pressure from other front runners. In addition, is not uncommon to find several horses resuming from a spell contesting one of these races and if no reliable barrier trial form is available fitness assessment can be clouded.

However, there are some occasions when 1000m events can be reliable betting options. If, for example, it is a field of not more than (say) 12 runners, with proven short course performers and no preponderance of front runners then it may provide a suitable betting medium.

An examination of racing records will show that there are some horses that even have difficulty in staying a 1000m. These horses lack stamina and would be better suited over 900m on country or provincial tracks.

The 1000m specialist is generally easily recognizable from the formguide. Its performance history will record successes at 1000m, but when it contests the longer sprints its formguide will show that it "wilts" in the last 100m and is unable to win over the more testing 1200m distance in a truly run race.

What you may also find is that some gallopers who are essentially 1000m horses may be able to run 1200m againt weaker provincial or country class yet are unable to run past 1000m in the city.

Three year old gallopers often perform well in these short races against the older horses for their early speed has not been dissipated through over-racing and the stamina that often accompanies increasing age is not so essential.

1200 metres:  This is the most common of the sprint distances. Naturally it provides a more searching test for the racehorse than does the 1000m sprint.

Over the distance of 1200m, weight plays a greater part in determining the final outcome of the race and we can have more confidence in the relevance of our quantitative analysis.

The 1200m tends to be the distance over which major Group 1 sprints are conducted, for all age groups. There are also significant Group 1 races at 1000m and over distances between 1300m and 1400m, but they tend to be the exceptions for the shorter course sprinters.

1400 metres:  Most horses capable of scoring over 1200m can handle a sprint over 1400m, particularly on a less testing course.

However, some runners find that a truly run 1400m race is beyond their powers of endurance. This galloper will quite often run places at 1400m but will fail to outstay the eventual winner over that last 100 or 200 metres.

Of course, some horses are specialists at 1400m and find 1200m short of their best. These gallopers are usually strongly built types who like the speed to be on in a race all the way. Their greatest asset is the ability to keep on going when their rivals are getting weary.

1600 metres:  This is the most testing of the sprint distances. Here real stamina, as well as speed, is demanded of the horse. Many horses capable of winning at 1200m find a truly run 1600m race quite beyond their distance ability.

Some horses are specialist "milers". They invariably run their best races at this distance. As this type of horse matures it is often capable of performing successfully over middle distances.

The 1600m is an exacting test when the race is truly run. That is why it is not uncommon to see a proven 2000m horse prevail in the major 1600m Group races, such as the Epsom and Doncaster.

2000 metres: The 2000m route is the most common middle distance race. In middle distance races the successful runner requires stamina, endurance, fitness and speed. The plodding type of stayer is less likely to prevail in a 2000m race than in a 2400m race. Several key Group 1 races for 3yo gallopers are run over this trip.

2400 metres: At distances of 2400m and beyond the horse must possess abundant stamina and powers of endurance and be in solid race-winning condition. This becomes even more important as the horse is asked to carry higher weights over these testing distances. This is the distance over which the 3yo classic races (Derby, Oaks) are run, though it is noted that some are run at 2500m because of track configuration. 

Jockeys also play an important part in determining the winner of these staying events, with a good judge of pace and tactics a big advantage to a horse. Whilst you will find 2000m horses who are capable of winning at 2400m given the right conditions, you will find that "true" 2400m horse is less likely to win at 2000m at any time other than early in a campaign when they are still relatively fresh.

Melbourne top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on Melbourne metropolitan tracks in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

 

 to 1199m1200-1399m1400-1699m1700-1899m1900-2199m2200-2500mover 2500m
C Maher, D Eustace288  1473 19.6%369  2006  18.4%493  2869  17.2%65  383  17.0%121  743  16.3%67 418 16.0%111 446 24.9%
P Moody (K Coleman)128  556 23.0%214  952  22.5%227  1068  21.3%29  116  25.0%57  250  22.8%14  77  18.2%6  55  10.9%
B, W, JD Hayes58  296  19.6%92  466  19.7%124  556  22.3%6  45  13.3%13  80  16.3%4  26  15.4%5  24  20.8%
James Cummings384  1752  21.9%496  2171  22.8%268  1365  19.6%22  137  16.1%37  201  18.4%19  62  30.6%8  25  32.0%
M Price, M Kent Jnr91  436  20.9%155  681  22.8%228  1024  22.3%24  127  18.9%29  193  15.0%10  59  16.9%4  32  12.5%
Patrick Payne87  434  20.0%166  731  22.7%223  981  22.7%34  159  21.4%60  343  17.5%42 185 22.7%90 353 25.5%
Michael Moroney53  261  20.3%101  534  18.9%170  899 18.9%26  168  15.5%51  293  17.4%38 182 20.9%15  70  21.4%
T Bussuttin, N Young61  344  17.7%115  585  19.7%199  1114  17.9%34  133  25.6%68  341  19.9%15 122 12.3%4  39  10.3%
Phillip Stokes254  1035  24.5%250  1101  22.7%253  1050  24.1%16  97  16.5%49  195  25.1%10  48  20.8%9  40  22.5%
G Waterhouse, A Bott178  744  23.9%250 1189  21.0%388 1506 25.8%43  156  27.6%89  353  25.2%38 201 18.9%38 133 28.6%
Grahame Begg36  180  20.0%58  278  20.9%69  328  21.0%9  35  25.7%14  48  29.2%4  23  17.4%3  11  27.3%
Anthony, Sam Freedman94  377  24.9%72  447  16.1%68  334  20.4%7  42  16.7%10  57  17.5%9  41  22.0%12  35  34.3%
Chris Waller160 919 17.4%585 3109 18.8%1090 5705 19.1%209 1031 20.3%376 1909 19.7%192 987 19.5%33 198 16.7%
Danny O'Brien92  433  21.2%117  691  16.9%210  1176  17.9%45  189  23.8%41  270  15.2%30 158 19.0%15  89  16.9%
Nick Ryan46  225  20.4%27  155  17.4%49  227  21.6%3  22  13.6%11  34  32.4%3  9  33.3%1  3  33.3%
M, W, J Hawkes273  1107  24.7%318  1462  21.8%210  1026  20.5%9  70  12.9%31  145  21.4%13  52  25.0%1  12  8.3%
Cindy Alderson28  155  18.1%28  179  15.6%55  270  20.4%4  22  18.2%20  92  21.7%13  49  26.5%1  16  6.3%
R Griffiths, M de Kock56  240  23.3%33  193  17.1%47  285  16.5%3  39  7.7%10  41  24.4%4  36  16.7%4  9  44.4%
Peter, Paul Snowden318  1377  23.1469  2156  21.8%246  1259  19.5%18  94  19.1%28  149  18.8%9  45  29.0%5  17  29.4%
Leon, Troy Corstens158  744  21.2%142  793  17.9%109  770  14.2%20  87  23.0%24  125  19.2%6  34  17.6%2  28  7.1%

 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the South Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                     Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Adelaide 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Richard, Chantelle JollyInsufficient datadays since last win 30-60days since last run 22-28
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last win 8-14
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 15-21
  previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0days since last win 22-28
  runs from a spell: 3rd upField Strength -5.0 or more
   Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 6th up
    
Michael HickmottInsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 22-28
  previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0weight change: -3.5 or more
  runs from a spell: 1st up 
  weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg 
  dist change: +101 to +300m 
    
G Richards, D MoyleInsufficient dataField Strength -2.5 to -1.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0runs from a spell: 3rd up
  runs from a spell: 3rd upweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kgdist change: +301 to +500m
  dist change: +101 to +300m 
    
L Macdonald, A Gluyrsruns from a spell: 2nd updays since last run 1-7days since last win 8-14
  days since last run 22-28days since last win 22-28
  days since last run 61-179Field Strength -5.0 or more
  days since last win 8-14Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  days since last win 22-28dist change:   -300 to -101m
  Field Strength -5.0 or more 
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
    
David JollyInsufficient datadays since last win 180-365days since last run 61-179
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5days since last run 180-365
  runs from a spell: 2nd updays since last win 8-14
  runs from a spell: 3rd updays since last win 30-60
   Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
    
W Clarken,   N O'SheaInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14
   Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
   dist change: +101 to +300m
    
Ryan BalfourInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21Field Strength -5.0 or more
  Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0runs from a spell: 2nd up
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0 
  runs from a spell: 2nd up 
  weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg 
    
B, W, JD HayesInsufficient datadays since last run 30-60days since last run 8-14
  days since last win 15-21days since last run 22-28
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last run 180-365
  Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0days since last win 22-28
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 1st
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
  runs from a spell: 2nd upruns from a spell: 4th up
  dist change: +101 to +300mruns from a spell: 6th up
   weight change: -3.5 or more
   dist change: -300 to -101m
    
Chris BiegInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last run 1-7
  days since last win 61-179days since last run 15-21
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 61-179
  runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength -0.5 to +0.5
  runs from a spell: 1st upField Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  dist change: +101 to +300mprevious beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 4th up
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
    
Peter, Belinda BlanchInsufficient dataInsufficient dataInsufficient data
    
Peter HardacreInsufficient dataField Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 1-7
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5days since last win 15-21
   Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   runs from a spell: 4th up
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
    
Travis DoudleInsufficient datafinish last start: 1stdays since last run 61-179
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 8-14
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 30-60
  runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 5th up
    
Shane, Cassie OxladeInsufficient dataInsufficient dataInsufficient data
    
D Clarken, O MacGilvrayInsufficient dataprevious beat margin: 3.1-5.0finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   weight change: 0.0 to +2.5
    
John MacmillanInsufficient dataInsufficient dataInsufficient data
    
C Maher, D Eustacedays since last run 15-21days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-14
 days since last win 15-21days since last win 8-14days since last win 22-28
 Field Strength -2.5 to -1days since last win 15-21Field Strength -5.0 or more
 Field Strength +1 to +2.5dist change: +301 to +500mfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
 runs from a spell: 2nd up previous win margin 3.1L plus
 runs from a spell: 4th up weight change: +5.0 or more
 dist change:   -100 to +100m  
    
Sue, Jason JaenschInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last win 30-60
   days since last win 180-365
   Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0
   Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   weight change: 0.0 to +2.5
    
    
Matthew SeyersInsufficient datadist change:   -100 to +100mfinish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   dist change:   -100 to +100m
    
Jon O'ConnorInsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 1-7
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5days since last run 15-21
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 30-60
  runs from a spell: 1st updays since last win 180-365
  runs from a spell: 3rd upfinish last start: 1st
  dist change: +101 to +300mfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   weight change: -3.0 to -0.5


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