Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 27 November 2023.

• The Distance Factor - continued.
• Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis with a look at the different distance ranges.

General Comments on Sprint Races

Because, among other things, sprint races are usually more truly run than the longer races, form reversals are less common in the shorter races. They tend to be a good betting medium.

The running styles of sprinters can vary. Some possess brilliant speed and are able to quickly reach the lead and, providing they are not seriously challenged by another horse in running and can handle the distance, are capable of maintaining their lead to the wire. These are frontrunners.

Then we have the on pace horse which races close to the lead and quickly sprints to the front in the home stretch. This type of runner is normally a safer conveyance for it is not subject to a stamina-sapping challenge like the front runner or runs the same chance of interference in the straight as the off-pace closer. Also, its finishing run does not have to be so delicately timed. 

Finally we have the off-pace closers and backmarkers. This sprinter normally races back in the field and relies on a sharp (but often limited) finishing run to overhaul its speedier rivals. Here, having a good jockey is an advantage, for the finishing run needs to be timed precisely and ensuring a clear run at the leaders. It is important to note that a horse racing in this manner will not necessarily be suited by a longer distance. It is quite likely that the shorter sprint distance is as far as it likes to travel. Although it wins its races by this strong finishing burst it does not have sufficient stamina to score over a longer trip. 

When analysing the past performances of a horse, determine the running style employed when successful in a similar type of race. Now, examine its failures at different sprint distances. Can its failure(s) be attributed to the adoption of an unsuitable running style? 

General Comments on Distance Races

The way in which a distance race is run plays a major part in the final outcome. 

The true stayer prefers a fast pace and a truly run race to give its best. If the pace is very slow in the early stages and the race develops into a sprint home the genuine stayer that gets back in its races can be left with too much ground to make up on the leaders that have sprinted away. When a race is run at a farsical pace the form is worthless. Ignore the performances when assessing future prospects in your quantitative analysis. 

Pre-race Analysis

The purpose of this analysis is to determine whether the horse is capable of winning over the distance of the forthcoming race.

With the stress on winning, it follows that we are searching for those horses that have proven their distance ability by either winning a race at this distance or have recorded (a) performance(s) that strongly suggest the ability to win over the distance of the forthcoming event. 

If the horse has won at this distance, or within +/- 10% of the distance, this should be sufficient for it to pass the "distance ability test". 

The only exception would be where it had recorded a lone win at this distance (or at a distance within 10%) but had a number of losses at the same distance when other factors were apparently in its favour. In this case, beware! That lone win was possibly due to exceptional circumstances (for example, when the race is run an an unusually fast or slow pace, or the field was made up of horses that were also racing beyond their distance range, or there was severe interference to the horses really capable of scoring at that distance, etc.) Check the formguide for comments and search your racing records for clues. 

There will be a more detailed discussion of this aspect of form analysis tomorrow.

Brisbane top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on Brisbane metropolitan tracks in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Western Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red. 

Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                           Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Western Australia 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.