Distance - Specialise

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 27 November 2023.

  • The Distance Factor - continued.
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance Factor

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis with a look at the different distance ranges.

General Comments on Sprint Races

Because, among other things, sprint races are usually more truly run than the longer races, form reversals are less common in the shorter races. They tend to be a good betting medium.

The running styles of sprinters can vary. Some possess brilliant speed and are able to quickly reach the lead and, providing they are not seriously challenged by another horse in running and can handle the distance, are capable of maintaining their lead to the wire. These are frontrunners.

Then we have the on pace horse which races close to the lead and quickly sprints to the front in the home stretch. This type of runner is normally a safer conveyance for it is not subject to a stamina-sapping challenge like the front runner or runs the same chance of interference in the straight as the off-pace closer. Also, its finishing run does not have to be so delicately timed. 

Finally we have the off-pace closers and backmarkers. This sprinter normally races back in the field and relies on a sharp (but often limited) finishing run to overhaul its speedier rivals. Here, having a good jockey is an advantage, for the finishing run needs to be timed precisely and ensuring a clear run at the leaders. It is important to note that a horse racing in this manner will not necessarily be suited by a longer distance. It is quite likely that the shorter sprint distance is as far as it likes to travel. Although it wins its races by this strong finishing burst it does not have sufficient stamina to score over a longer trip. 

When analysing the past performances of a horse, determine the running style employed when successful in a similar type of race. Now, examine its failures at different sprint distances. Can its failure(s) be attributed to the adoption of an unsuitable running style? 

General Comments on Distance Races

The way in which a distance race is run plays a major part in the final outcome. 

The true stayer prefers a fast pace and a truly run race to give its best. If the pace is very slow in the early stages and the race develops into a sprint home the genuine stayer that gets back in its races can be left with too much ground to make up on the leaders that have sprinted away. When a race is run at a farsical pace the form is worthless. Ignore the performances when assessing future prospects in your quantitative analysis. 

Pre-race Analysis

The purpose of this analysis is to determine whether the horse is capable of winning over the distance of the forthcoming race.

With the stress on winning, it follows that we are searching for those horses that have proven their distance ability by either winning a race at this distance or have recorded (a) performance(s) that strongly suggest the ability to win over the distance of the forthcoming event. 

If the horse has won at this distance, or within +/- 10% of the distance, this should be sufficient for it to pass the "distance ability test". 

The only exception would be where it had recorded a lone win at this distance (or at a distance within 10%) but had a number of losses at the same distance when other factors were apparently in its favour. In this case, beware! That lone win was possibly due to exceptional circumstances (for example, when the race is run an an unusually fast or slow pace, or the field was made up of horses that were also racing beyond their distance range, or there was severe interference to the horses really capable of scoring at that distance, etc.) Check the formguide for comments and search your racing records for clues. 

There will be a more detailed discussion of this aspect of form analysis tomorrow.

 

Brisbane top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on Brisbane metropolitan tracks in the last season across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

 to 1199m1200-1399m1400-1699m1700-1899m1900-2199m2200-2500mover 2500m
 win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %
Tony Gollan380  1545  24.6566  2623  21.6212  1037  20.436  194  18.628  124  22.626  135  19.30  2  0
Chris Waller160  919  17.4585  3109  18.81090  5705  19.1209  1031  20.3376  1909  19.7192  987  19.533  198  16.7
Bob Heathcote106  492  21.5316  1584  19.9198  1047  18.924  121  19.819  71  26.821  119  17.6nil
S O'Dea, M Hoysted85  307  27.793  399  23.346   223  20.68  37  21.61  3  00  1  0nil
Matthew Dunn199 921  21.6361  1660  21.7230  1089  21.150  216  23.134  122  27.911  73  15.1nil
David Vandyke141  456  30.9204  786  26.0127  575  22.118  95  18.933  93  35.515  60  25.02  10  20.0
Annabel Neasham63     304  20.782    414  19.897  491  19.613  74  17.633  104  31.712  65  18.52  7  28.6
Chris Munce105  481  21.8150  827  18.1112  508  22.05  67  7.59  39  23.112  40  30.0nil
Kelly Schweida145  685  21.2159  881  18.0106  549  19.321  133  15.812  46  26.112  53  22.6nil
Barry Lockwood70  259  27.078  344  22.767  321  20.911  58  19.09  45  20.05  33  15.20  1  0
Kris Lees404  1666  24.2529  2380  22.2418  2161  19.353  273  19.499  470  21.150 244 20.55  36  13.9
Jack Bruce14  57  24.620  118  16.926  132  19.74  22  18.212  27  44.44  27  14.80  2  0
Tony, Maddy Sears109  481  22.767  285  23.543  166  25.99  34  26.54  21  19.05  14  35.7nil
Mark Currie126  534  23.691  423  21.562  290  21.410  55  18.29  35  25.72  16  12.50  3  0
Les Ross81  476  17.084  473  17.842  227  18.51  30  3.31  5  20.05  17  29.40  1  0
Desleigh Forster36  170  21.264  381  16.855  261  21.16  29  17.27  32  21.92  15  13.31  1  100.0
Stuart Kendrick277 1326  20.9258  1371  18.8161  888  18.124  123  19.54  35  11.49  38  23.7nil
Toby, Trent Edmonds104  436  23.9156  633 24.661  266  22.96  44  13.64  23  17.45  19  26.3nil
Lee Freedman13  84  15.520  83  24.119  76  25.01  13  7.74  16  25.06  13  46.20  1  0
Chris Anderson97  412  23.599  488  20.373  380  19.211  86  12.85  22  22.77  37  18.90  1  0

 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

 

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook re-examine trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Western Australian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

What is different about this listing is that I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red

Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

                                           Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 20 on the Western Australia 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Neville Parnhamdays since last run 8-14days since last run 15-21days since last run 1-7
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-14days since last win 1-7
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 180-365Field Strength -5.0 or more
 runs from a spell: 3rd upField Strength -0.5 to +0.5runs from a spell: 5th up
  finish last start: 1st 
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  runs from a spell: 3rd up 
    
Simon A Millerdays since last run 8-14days since last run 30-60days since last win 8-14
 days since last win 8-14days since last run 61-179days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 1stdays since last run 180-365days since last win 22-28
 previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 8-14Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5finish last start: 1st
  runs from a spell: 1st upruns from a spell: 2nd up
   weight change: -3.5 or more
    
Adam Durrantdays since last run 8-14days since last run 1-7days since last win 8-14
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 8-14Field Strength +5.0 or more
 runs from a spell: 3rd upField Strength -2.5 to -1.0finish last start: 1st
  runs from a spell: 3rd up 
  dist change: -300 to -101m 
    
Daniel Mortondays since last run 8-14days since last win 8-14days since last run 8-14
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 15-21days since last win 8-14
 runs from a spell: 2nd updays since last win 30-60days since last win 15-21
  Field Strength +5.0 or moreField Strength -2.5 to -1.0
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 1st
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0runs from a spell: 3rd up
  runs from a spell: 4th up 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  dist change: -300 to -101m 
  dist change: +101 to +300m 
    
Steve Wolfedays since last run 8-14days since last run 15-21days since last run 22-28
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last run 61-179days since last win 8-14
  days since last win 8-14days since last win 30-60
  days since last win 15-21Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5runs from a spell: 6th up
  finish last start: 1stdist change: -500 to -301m
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  runs from a spell: 1st up 
  runs from a spell: 4th up 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  dist change: -300 to -101m 
    
Daniel, Ben Pearcedays since last run 8-14days since last run 22-28days since last run 1-7
  days since last win 8-14days since last run 180-365
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-14
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdField Strength -0.5 to +0.5
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  runs from a spell: 2nd upfinish last start: 1st
    
Grant, Alana WilliamsInsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 1-7
  days since last win 8-14days since last run 22-28
  days since last win 22-28days since last run 30-60
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 15-21
  runs from a spell: 1st updays since last win 30-60
  runs from a spell: 4th upField Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   Field Strength +5.0 or more
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   runs from a spell: 4th up
   weight change: -3.5 or more
    
David Harrisondays since last run 15-21days since last win 15-21days since last run 1-7
 runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 30-60
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 61-179
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rd 
  runs from a spell: 3rd up 
  runs from a spell: 4th up 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  dist change: -300 to -101m 
    
Sean, Jake CaseyInsufficient datafinish last start: 1stdays since last run 15-21
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0days since last run 22-28
  runs from a spell: 3rd upField Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  weight change: 0.0 to +2.5Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
    
Don LucianiInsufficient dataField Strength +1.0 to +2.5days since last run 15-21
  finish last start: 1stField Strength -2.5 to -1.0
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 1st
  runs from a spell: 2nd upruns from a spell: 4th up
  dist change: -100 to +100mdist change: +101 to +300m
    
Luke FernieInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14
   days since last win 8-14
   Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
    
Darren McAuliffeInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14days since last win 8-14
  days since last win 8-14Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0
  days since last win 30-60finish last start: 1st
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5runs from a spell: 2nd up
  Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddist change: +101 to +300m
  runs from a spell: 4th up 
    
Chris, Michael GangemiInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21
   days since last win 61-179
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
    
Colin WebsterInsufficient datafinish last start: 1stdays since last win 30-60
  previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0days since last win 61-179
   Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
    
Michael GranthamInsufficient dataruns from a spell: 2nd updays since last run 15-21
   days since last win 61-179
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   dist change: -100 to +100m
    
Stephen MillerInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14days since last run 61-179
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 180-365
  runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength -2.5 to -1.0
  runs from a spell: 5th upfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   dist change: +101 to +300m
   dist change: +301 to +500m
    
Ashley MaleyInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last win 8-14
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 15-21
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 22-28
  runs from a spell: 1st upField Strength -4.5 to -3.0
   Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
   Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 4th up
   weight change: -3.0 to -0.5
   dist change: +301 to +500m
    
Trevor AndrewsInsufficient datadays since last win 8-14days since last run 15-21
  Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  finish last start: 1stfinish last start: 1st
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0
  runs from a spell: 2nd upruns from a spell: 4th up
    
Mitchell PatemanInsufficient dataInsufficient datafinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   dist change: -100 to +100m
    
Michael LaneInsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 22-28
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 8-14
  previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  dist change: +101 to +300mfinish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   dist change: -100 to +100m


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