Distance - Failed or First Time

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 28 November 2023.

  • The Distance Factor - Failed and first time.
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. Enhanced.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance - Failed and First time

Today we continue a discussion of the distance ability of a horse, a key area for investigation in form analysis.

Failed at the Distance

Let us assume that the horse has previously failed at the distance of the forthcoming race (or within +/-10% of the distance).

 * First, how many failures have been recorded at this distance?

* Second, did its finishing effort indicate winning potential at this distance? 

 One unexplained failure, with no successes in the distance range, can usually be forgiven. However, if such a horse has failed more than once when obviously well fancied and otherwise suited by the conditions of the race then it can be considered "suspect" at the distance and it can be penalized to reflect the fact. Such a galloper should not be seen as a strong first selection until it shows it can handle the distance satisfactorily. 

 Of course, if there is a good explanation for its failure (for example, blocked in the straight when attempting a run or missed the start) then it can be evaluated under the following section (First Time at Distance). 

If a horse has failed at the distance (with no obvious excuse) closely examine its finishing run. 

* Was it tiring and losing ground during the last 200m? (We are assuming that the horse was fully fit). 

If the answer is "Yes"... WAIT for evidence that it CAN cope with the distance. 

* Was it fully extended: whilst not making up any real ground on the leaders it was not losing ground. That is, it ran an even race in the straight.

If the answer is "Yes" - Can be supported but watched closely for further confirmation that this journey is within its distance range. 

* Was it running on strongly and overhauling the leaders which were not tiring? 

If the answer is "Yes" - Can be supported. The experience should assist at the next attempt. 

The problem horse in this category is the young improving galloper who may have failed at a specific distance when last in work, but who is now attempting that distance again this time up. With increased maturity and experience it may have no difficulty in coping with the distance on this occasion. If you are confronted with this situation, you may be best evaluating the given horse under the following section (First Time at Distance). 

First time at the Distance

When this situation arises, and it frequently occurs, we are forced to analyse the horse's past performances in order to determine whether its distance ability is likely to encompass the distance of the forthcoming race. Mind you, we are not alone in having to make these judgements. At times not even those closely associated with a horse will know whether it can handle a new distance either.

The following are some of the points to consider. (Note: These can also be applied to the situation where the galloper has registered a failure at the distance). 

* Does the horses' breeding indicate that it will run the distance? 

* How does it finish at the end of its races closest in distance to the forthcoming event? To answer this question you should use race videos.

- Was it fully extended with nothing in reserve and being overhauled by closers? 

- Was it tiring and shortening stride at the end of its race. (Remember: We are assuming that the horse is fully fit and that improved racing condition won't help it see out the extra distance on this occasion.) 

If the answer to either of the above is "Yes", then the horse can be considered suspect at the longer distance, particularly if at the longer distance it is to meet the same class of horse and must carry the same or higher weight. 

In this case the horse can be downgraded or even eliminated from your final list of possibilities or appropriately penalised when handicapping the field. It is prudent to wait until it has proven that it can handle the extra distance before backing it as a strong first selection.

- Was it running on strongly, holding the opposition at bay... perhaps increasing its advantage over the last 100 metres? 

- Was it finishing strongly at the end of the race, making up ground on the leaders which were not weakening and perhaps running on strongly after reaching the winning post? 

If the answer to either of the above is "Yes", then the horse has indicated that it should cope with the extra distance. Once you have satisfied yourself that it is capable of running out the journey it can become a qualified selection. However, if any real doubt remains either wait or penalise the galloper in question so that it does not become one of your strong selections for the race. 

Tomorrow, distance switches.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

 

Adelaide top 20 in 2022-2023 Stats for Distance Ranges

Today, looking at the performance of the top 20 trainers on the Adelaide metropolitan track in the last season, across seven distance ranges, from the sprinter to the stayer. These stats cover the past 10 years for all runners in the distance range with a starting price of 10/1 or less.

 to 1199m1200-1399m1400-1699m1700-1899m1900-2199m2200-2500mover 2500m
 win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %win   runs    %
Richard, Chantelle Jolly116  459  25.389  367  24.346  241  19.117  58  29.312  61  19.73  11  27.31  12  8.3
Phillip Stokes254  1035  24.5250  1101  22.7253  1050  24.116  97  16.549  195  25.110  48  20.89  40  22.5
Michael Hickmott35  159  22.0052  224  23.269  350  19.76  39  15.416  94  17.06  22  27.310  31  32.3
G Richards, D Moyle19  106  17.95  72  6.927  113  23.95  19  26.34  28  14.34  13  30.81  12  8.3
L Macdonald. A Gluyas60  271  22.1117  636  18.492  530  17.422  96  22.951  177  28.816  55  29.14  29  13.8
David Jolly156  757  20.6111  530  20.933  244  13.516  48  33.310  56  17.93  7  42.9nil
W Clarken, N O'Shea110  497  22.192  433  21.172  357  20.114  49  28.611  61  18.0nilnil
Ryan Balfour87  504  17.3110  535  20.661  452  13.59  87  10.318  108  16.77  31  22.63  22  13.6
B, W, JD Hayes58  296  19.692  466  19.7124  556  22.36  45  13.313  80  16.34  26  15.45  24  20.8
Chris Bieg27  129  20.946  228  20.239  233  16.75  32  15.67  32  21.91  7  14.30  2  0
Peter, Belinda Blanch17  87  19.518  107  16.821  88  23.86  30  20.04  37  10.8nilnil
Peter Hardacre23  136  16.941  201  20.448  287  16.713  69  18.816  86  18.61  6  16.71  5  20.0
Travis Doudle46  193  23.839  203  19.253  233  22.79  70  12.920  88  22.73  20  15.01  11  9.1
Shane, Cassie Oxlade36  190  18.937  236  15.625  143  17.57  33  21.18  53  15.03  14  21.43  23  13.0
D Clarken, O MacGillvray19  106  17.924  102  23.532  127  25.26  24  25.05  25  20.01  6  16.63  6  50.0
John Macmillan37  216  17.151  261  19.530  182  477  39  17.96  65  9.23  10  30.00  6  0
Sue, Jason Jaensch26  148  17.552  230  22.677  396  19.422  107  20.552  220  23.65  28  17.83  7  42.8
Matthew Seyers36  129  27.923  114  20.217  137  12.48  41  19.56  47  12.81  13  7.71  5  20.0
Jon O'Connor40  272  14.751  247  20.638  218  17.44  16  25.05  26  19.21  4  25.0nil

 

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. enhanced.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook reports on trainers ranked 1 to 10 on the Tasmanian metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

In this listing I have identified those form factors that not only have an impact value on 1.3 but also show a win strike rate of 27% or more and a profit on turnover of 10% or more. This is obviously a more significant level of performance.

As before, I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

In the following listing those areas in which the trainer had a 1.3 impact value, and a win strike rate of 27% or better, and a positive return on investment of 10% more are highlighted in red

Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com

 

                               Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers ranked 1 to 10 on the Tasmanian 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table.

Scott BruntonInsufficient datadays since last run 22-28days since last win 15-21
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5days since last win 30-60
  finish last start: 1stfinish last start: 1st
  runs from a spell: 2nd upprevious beat margin: 3.1-5.0
   dist change: -300 to -101m
    
John BlackerInsufficient datadays since last run 1-7days since last run 1-7
  days since last run 15-21days since last win 8-14
  days since last run 22-28days since last win 15-21
  days since last win 180-365days since last win 22-28
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdField Strength -2.5 to -1.0
  runs from a spell: 4th upfinish last start: 1st
  dist change: -300 to -101mruns from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
   weight change: +5.0 or more
    
Adam TrinderInsufficient datadays since last run 180-365days since last run 30-60
  days since last win 8-14days since last win 8-14
  days since last win 15-21days since last win 22-28
  Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  finish last start: 1stfinish last start: 1st
  previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0runs from a spell: 5th up
  runs from a spell: 1st up 
  runs from a spell: 3rd up 
  dist change: -300 to -101m 
    
L, D, T WellsInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last win 30-60
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 61-179
  previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
  runs from a spell: 1st updist change: -300 to -101m
  runs from a spell: 4th up 
    
Glenn StevensonInsufficient dataruns from a spell: 3rd updays since last run 30-60
   days since last run 61-179
   days since last win 8-14
   days since last win 30-60
   Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 1st up
   runs from a spell: 5th up
    
Gary WhiteInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14
   Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   weight change: +0.0 to +2.5
    
Stuart Gandyruns from a spell: 2nd upField Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 1-7
  finish last start: 1stdays since last run 22-28
   days since last win 30-60
   Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beat margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 6th up
   dist change: -300 to -101m
    
 John, Tegan KeyInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21
   days since last run 22-28
   days since last win 22-28
   Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
   Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 6th up
    
Barry CampbellInsufficient dataField Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last run 61-179
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 8-14
  runs from a spell: 2nd upfinish last start: 1st
  dist change: +101 to +300 mprevious beat margin: 0.1-3.0
    
John LuttrellInsufficient dataprevious beat margin: 0.1-3.0days since last run 15-21
  dist change: -100 to +100 mdays since last win 8-14
   days since last win 15-21
   Field Strength -5.0 or more
   Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   previous beat margin: 3.1-5.0
   dist change: -300 to -101m


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