The Distance Factor - Trainer's Notebook.

Wizard Daily Report and Research  - Thursday, 30 November 2023.

  • The Distance Factor - Trainers Notebook.

Better betting - Specialise - Distance - Trainers Notebook

Following on from yesterdays analysis of how trainers have performed when switching distances by various amounts, there is another source of information we now have that shines additional light on this form factor.

The Wizard Trainers Notebook details the record of the top-100 mainland metropolitan trainers from the 2022-2023 season and one of the variables reported on is any over-performance (impact value) when switching distances.

The following shows the results for the three age groups studied:

          2yo                                            3yo                                          4yo and older

-100 to +100    = 4                   -300 to -101     = 12                  -500 to -301      =   2

+101 to +300   = 4                   -100 to +100    =   4                  -300 to -101      = 11

                                                   +101 to +300   = 16                 -100 to +100     =   6

                                                   +301 to +500   = 12                 +101 to +300    =   7

                                                                                                      +301 to +500    = 14

                                                                                                       Over 500           =   1

So, for 2yo gallopers, there were 4 trainers who outperformed when the distance remained basically the same; that is, within 100m of the previous race. There were 4 trainers who outperformed  when stepping up more than 100m but no more than 300m.

With 3yo gallopers, 12 of the trainers outperformed when the horse was dropped back in distance by at least 101m but not more than 300m. Similarly, 16 of the top-100 outperformed when stepping up the horse between 101m and 300m.

And so on.

From this analysis it can be seen that there is a greater likelihood of over-performance if the 3yo and 4yo+ are stepped up in distance, but for these trainers, bringing the horse back in distance is definitely not the negative that some claim it to be.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

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