Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 17 December 2023.
Consistency (part 1)
Consistency - overview
Consistency is a significant factor to be assessed in pre-race form analysis and needs to be examined carefully; but in context.
First, from a general perspective, there are four types of consistency we normally encounter when assessing the form of a horse.
- Ultra-consistent "class" racehorse: Such gallopers are able to win against the best opposition with great regularity and have an overall win strike rate of at least 40%.
- Consistent "average performer": This type of galloper is of particular interest to the form student since this type of horse will be the one most regularly dealt with in form analysis. Such a horse, although not boasting an overall win record equivalent to the ultra-consistent galloper can usually be relied upon to perform consistently when race conditions are suitable.
- Consistent(?) but loser: This type of galloper is the one the keen form students must learn to avoid backing. It is not always easy to detect however, for its overall win strike rate can be comparable with other runners in the race. However, it has disappointed even when racing under what should be suitable race conditions.
- Inconsistent horses: This type of galloper has a relatively low win strike rate (less than 10% overall) and has a record of failing to deliver when racing under what should be suitable race conditions and in the market (<=10/1).
Some horses have a definite will to win and give of their best each race start even if conditions are not in their favour.
On the other hand there are horses who only race up to expectations when everything goes well for them in a race; the slightest bump or check in a race is generally enough for the horse to lose interest.
Consistency - the nub of the issue
Consistency in racehorses means different things to different people.
The definition of consistency used here refers to a horse's ability to produce consistent wins/results when race and track conditions are suitable.
Basically, as a general rule of thumb, a horse with a 25-33% win record and a 50-60% place performance can be regarded as a consistent performer.
(However, be careful with the horse showing a good place strike rate but a low win rate. These non-winners are like to remain non-winners, even when racing under the most suitable race conditions.)
There is also the question of a horse running up to its ratings. Horses which are rated to win or run very close to the winner, and do so on a consistent basis, should be favoured.
The Wizard provides very useful information with respect to this aspect of consistency.
In the Wizard formguide, and on the Wizard Plus form details screen, in the formline of a horse, to the right of the prizemoney for the race, there is a numeric. This figure is the Wrat ranking for the horse (after scratchings) for that race. So, you can see in the Wizard formguide where it was rated to finish, and where it did finish, and with a quick check of the Stewards Reports you can determine if there were excuses should it have run below expectations.
Information about this aspect of consistency is particularly useful both during the race analysis, and when it comes to setting final prices, and when deciding whether to bet or not bet such a runner. Horses which run up to, or exceed expectations, should be favoured over those that have too often failed to do so.
It is also is worth pointing out one problem which can occur with consistency statistics; that is, in the win record of the horse.
From time to time a well performed country or provincial galloper will make its way to the city and because its racing has been restricted to lesser quality opposition it will have an impressive winning percentage. In such circumstances it is usually wise to treat the runner cautiously until it performs creditably against stronger opposition. Better to be conservative with this type of galloper when allocating bonuses for consistency.
(to be continued)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
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