Wizard Daily Report and Research  - Wednesday, 20 December 2023.

Betting Markets (part 2)

Betting Markets - Firmers

A common mistake made when choosing the time to make a wager is to bet too early. The worry is, missing the price.

However, rather than missing the best (early) price, to bet too early runs the risk of missing out on a possible improved price as the overall market eases during the last 30 minutes of wagering.

As shown in the previous article in this series, the initial market is invariably framed to a relatively high percentage, and this does start to adjust during the first 15 minutes or so of betting following the running of the previous race.

The tables which follow show the actual extent of firming that took place during the period immediately preceding the running of the races at 16 meetings last Saturday.

The first table shows the five main (designated metropolitan) meetings, and the second table covers the provincial and country meetings.

Some points about the details in the tables.

The firming relates to a point in time. For example, the table compares the price offered at 30 minutes before race start to 15 minutes before. It does not account for the situation where a horse might have firmed during this 15 minute period, and then eased back to its 30 minute quote by the time the 15 minutes price was noted. This interval firming can happen, of course, but it is not a frequent occurrence and does not invalidate the overall pattern of firming transactions shown here.

Where it shows, for example, three firmers at the 15m (30m-15m) and 3 at the 5m (15m-5m) marks this could mean three horses firmed twice, or that three firmed at the 15m and a different three firmed at the 5m, or any other possible combination.

Also included is a figure (% Change) showing the extent of the easing of the market. In the previous article, this easing was based on the percentage change between the 30 minute mark and the starting price market. Here, the figure reflects the change between the 30 minute and 5 minute markets. In terms of relevance this seems a better fit, as the final decision to bet or not bet is normally made with enough time allowed for comparing odds from the different wagering operators with whom one has an account, and the placing of a bet.

Table 1 - Betting Market Firmers - Metropolitan meetings

Table 2 - Betting Market Firmers - Provincial and Country meetings

From the above tables it can be seen that there are relatively few horses that have actually firmed early, when comparing the 30m odds with 15m odds. Also, for most races the number of firmers at the 5m is similarly modest when compared to the field size. One to three seems to be the norm at the 15m mark, and two to four at the 5m mark.

One other interesting point is the number of races with zero firmers at the 15m mark at the Saturday provincial and country meetings. (Note: I intend follow-up articles on this Betting Markets topic; the patterns at major and minor tracks over time, and on other days of the week, will be covered.)

There is another point to consider in that some of these firmers will be at long odds (normally of little interest) and/or horses that are not on the race handicappers radar.

The next article in this series will integrate the market easers into the analysis.

(to be continued)

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com