Betting Markets (part 6)

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 24 December 2023.

Betting Markets (part 6)

 

Betting Markets - Firmed, Steady, Eased (day 4)

Today we continue the analysis of betting market moves.

Here, presenting the data from Tuesday, December 19, and then aggregating the data from the four days covered so far.

Also covered today is the market action of the race favourite at four meetings.

We are looking at the odds available at two time points during betting and at the end point of betting, the starting price.

The two time points are at 15 minutes from race start, and at 5 minutes from race start.

At the 15m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 30 minutes mark with those at 15 minutes.

At the 5m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 15 minutes mark with those at 5 minutes.

The 15 minute and 5 minute marks can be viewed as decision points; to bet or not bet, at that particular time.

At both these time points we can see if the odds are firming, steady, or easing.

(The firming relates to a point in time. The price offered at 15 minutes before race start is being compared to that at 30 minutes. It does not account for the situation where a horse might have firmed during this 30m-15m time period, and then eased back to its 30 minute quote by the time the 15 minutes price was noted. This interval firming can happen, of course, but it is not a frequent occurrence and does not invalidate the overall pattern of firming transactions shown here.)

The following table provides an insight into the betting market dynamics across the Tuesday meetings.

 

Table 1 - Market movements at 15m and 5m before race start - firming, steady, easing.

Race dayStartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat sp
  fr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15m
19/12/2023153268414882621413914520
  17%31%15%54%58%30%24%47%25%36%13%51%
              
Race dayStartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat sp
  fr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5m
19/12/20231533614616531820156416642
  24%39%17%44%35%34%38%28%42%25%9%66%

Starter the number of runners in the race.

 

Firmed at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at 15m than at 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

 

Steady at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at 15m and 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

 

Eased at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were at longer odds at 15m than at 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

 

The same analysis has been done between the 15 minute mark and 5 minutes before race start time.

In the following table I have aggregated the data from the first four days, and present the percentages appropriate to each situation.

 

Table 2 - Aggregated market movements at 15m and 5m before race start - firming, steady, easing.

at 15m from 30m             
 StartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat sp
  fr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15m
16.12.23114614%38%13%49%65%27%14%59%21%29%15%56%
17.12.2365813%36%9%55%71%27%12%61%15%22%12%66%
18.12.2312811%43%22%36%64%24%10%66%25%31%9%59%
19.12.2315317%31%15%54%58%30%24%47%25%36%13%51%
Total208514%37%12%51%66%27%13%60%20%29%13%58%
              
at 5m from 15m             
 StartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat sp
  fr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5m
16.12.23114623%39%17%44%33%28%21%51%43%24%17%59%
17.12.2365820%44%20%36%37%27%18%55%43%19%13%68%
18.12.2312822%43%7%50%33%26%19%55%45%17%10%72%
19.12.2315324%39%17%44%35%34%38%28%42%25%9%66%
Total208522%41%17%42%35%28%21%51%43%22%15%63%

 

Looking at table 2 we can see the pattern of firming, easing, and holding steady has not really varied across the four days.

In the following table is shown the market action of the race favourite in four of the meetings run on Saturday, December 16. (The remaining meetings will be covered in coming days.)

 

Table 3 - Market action - Race favourites

MeetingRaceStarters30m15m5mSPSP oddsFinish
Albury172.00steadysteadyeased2.103rd
16.12.232102.30steadysteadyfirm1.90unp
 382.70easesteadyfirm2.50unp
 4143.40firmsteadyfirm3.001st
 593.40steadysteadyease4.001st
 6124.00firmfirmfirm2.601st
 7144.50easefirmease5.00unp
         
Ascot192.80easefirmsteady2.901st
16.12.232123.80firmsteadyease3.703rd
 393.00steadysteadyease3.302nd
 472.40easeeasefirm2.402nd
 5143.00steadyeasefirm3.00unp
 6133.30easeeaseease3.401st
 7163.10firmfirmsteady2.501st
 8134.00easeeasesteady4.40unp
 9165.80firmsteadyease6.002nd
         
Beaumont193.90firmsteadyfirm3.10unp
(Newcastle)2103.50firmeasefirm2.701st
16.12.23381.50steadyeasefirm1.401st
 491.80steadyfirmfirm1.601st
 563.50easeeasefirm3.003rd
 6103.70steadyfirmfirm3.20unp
 772.00easefirmfirm1.801st
         
Benalla192.80firmeasefirm2.50unp
16.12.23192.40steadyfirmease2.50unp
 2122.20steadysteadyease2.602nd
 3113.10steadysteadyease3.403rd
 4112.10steadyfirmease2.151st
 5103.90firmsteadyfirm3.60unp

30m - the odds available at 30 minutes before race start.

15m - the price movement between the odds available at the 15m compared to the 30m mark.

5m - the price movement between the odds available at the 5m compared to the 15m mark.

sp - the price movement between the starting price compared to the 5m mark.

A discussion on this aspect of betting market action will take place when the results of all 16 meetings have been posted.

(to be continued)

 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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