Betting Markets (part 7)

Wizard Daily Report and Research Tuesday, 26 December 2023.

Betting Markets (part 7)

Betting Markets - Firmed, Steady, Eased (day 5)

Today continuing the analysis of betting market moves.

Here, presenting the data from Wednesday, December 20, and then aggregating the data from the five days covered.

Also covered today is some detail on the market action of the starting price favourite at some of the meetings run on Saturday, December 16.

We are looking at the odds available at two time points during betting and at the end point of betting, the starting price.

The two time points are at 15 minutes from race start, and at 5 minutes from race start.

At the 15m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 30 minutes mark with those at 15 minutes.

At the 5m mark we are comparing the odds available at the 15 minutes mark with those at 5 minutes.

The 15 minute and 5 minute marks can be viewed as decision points; to bet or not bet, the likely favourite at that particular time.

At both these time points we can see if the odds are firming, steady, or easing.

(The firming relates to a point in time. The price offered at 15 minutes before race start is being compared to that at 30 minutes. It does not account for the situation where a horse might have firmed during this 30m-15m time period, and then eased back to its 30 minute quote by the time the 15 minutes price was noted. This interval firming can happen, of course, but it is not a frequent occurrence and does not invalidate the overall pattern of firming transactions shown here.)

The following table provides an insight into the betting market dynamics across the Wednesday meetings.

 

Table 1 - Market movements at 15m and 5m before race start firming, steady, easing.

Race dayStartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat sp
  fr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15m
20/12/2023452813411362607141148111231672
  18%42%14%44%58%27%16%57%25%21%14%65%
              
Race dayStartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat sp
  fr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5m
20/12/20234521084817431313240592134347123
  24%44%16%40%29%24%31%45%47%20%22%58%

Starter the number of runners in the race.

 

Firmed at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at 15m than at 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

 

Steady at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at 15m and 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

 

Eased at 15m fr 30m number and percentage of runners that were at longer odds at 15m than at 30m.

Firmed at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a shorter price at SP than at 15m.

Steady at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were the same odds at SP and 15m.

Eased at sp fr 15m - number and percentage of runners that were a longer price at SP than at 15m

 

The same analysis has been done between the 15 minute mark and 5 minutes before race start time.

In the following table I have aggregated the data from the five days covered, and present the percentages appropriate to each situation.

 

Table 2 - Aggregated market movements at 15m and 5m before race start firming, steady, easing.

at 15m from 30m             
 StartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat spat 15mat spat spat sp
  fr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15mfr 30mfr 15mfr 15mfr 15m
16.12.23114614%38%13%49%65%27%14%59%21%29%15%56%
17.12.2365813%36%9%55%71%27%12%61%15%22%12%66%
18.12.2312811%43%22%36%64%24%10%66%25%31%9%59%
19.12.2315317%31%15%54%58%30%24%47%25%36%13%51%
20.12.2345218%42%14%44%58%27%16%57%25%21%14%65%
              
Total253715%38%13%49%65%27%14%59%20%27%14%59%
              
              
at 5m from 15m             
 StartersFirmedFirmedSteadyEasedSteadyFirmedSteadyEasedEasedFirmedSteadyEased
  at 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat spat 5mat spat spat sp
  fr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5mfr 15mfr 5mfr 5mfr 5m
16.12.23114623%39%17%44%33%28%21%51%43%24%17%59%
17.12.2365820%44%20%36%37%27%18%55%43%19%13%68%
18.12.2312822%43%7%50%33%26%19%55%45%17%10%72%
19.12.2315324%39%17%44%35%34%38%28%42%25%9%66%
20.12.2345224%44%16%40%29%24%31%45%47%20%22%58%
Total253722%41%17%42%34%27%23%50%44%22%16%62%
              
Total208522%41%17%42%35%28%21%51%43%22%15%63%

Looking at table 2 we can see the pattern of firming, easing, and holding steady has not really varied across the four days.

In the following tables is shown the market action of the race favourite in another four meetings run on Saturday, December 16. (The remaining meetings will be covered in coming days.)

 

Table 3 - Market action - Race favourites

MeetingRaceStarters30m15m5mSPSP oddsFinish
Caulfield171.90steadysteadyfirm1.801st
16.12.23273.00firmfirmsteady2.602nd
 362.70easeeaseease3.30unp
 492.00steadyfirmfirm1.701st
 5102.80firmsteadyfirm2.601st
 6103.70easesteadyease4.003rd
 791.90steadyeaseease2.40unp
 8103.10firmsteadyfirm2.50unp
 993.40firmeasefirm3.303rd
 10144.50firmsteadyfirm3.402nd
         
Coffs Harbour1125.00firmfirmfirm3.701st
16.12.232113.80easesteadyease4.60unp
 393.10easeeasefirm2.70unp
 4113.50steadyfirmfirm2.90unp
 5113.80firmeasefirm3.503rd
 6144.50firmeaseease5.50unp
 6146.00steadysteadyfirm5.50unp
         
Colac1102.30steadyeasefirm1.801st
16.12.232101.60steadysteadyease1.801st
 3112.80steadysteadyfirm2.402nd
 4104.60steadyfirmfirm3.203rd
 5112.50steadysteadyease2.80unp
 6103.30easefirmfirm3.101st
 7114.20steadyfirmease4.20unp
 893.10steadyeaseease4.001st
         
Darwin151.90easesteadyfirm1.801st
16.12.23282.30steadyeasefirm2.001st
 382.70steadyfirmfirm2.201st
 473.70steadyeasefirm3.60unp
 594.00steadyfirmfirm2.702nd
 671.30steadyfirmfirm1.151st

 

30m - the odds available at 30 minutes before race start.

15m - the price movement between the odds available at the 15m compared to the 30m mark.

5m - the price movement between the odds available at the 5m compared to the 15m mark.

sp - the price movement between the starting price compared to the 5m mark.

 

(to be continued)

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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