Betting Markets - SP favourite (part 11)

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 30 December 2023.

Betting Markets - SP favourite (part 11)


Betting Markets - Starting Price Favourite - Metro, Prov, Country.

The following analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in two ways; irrespective of its support in the betting market, and when it has firmed in the latter stages of betting.

In terms of location, this analysis looks at this success rate:

  • Overall all locations
  • Metropolitan racing
  • Provincial racing
  • Country racing

In addition to the location sub-division of the data, it is further broken down into three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

The fluctuation used here for comparison purposes is the mid-point odds reported by AAP/Mediality and the horse is categorised as a firmer if the SP is shorter than the mid-point price.

The period covered is the 2022-2023 racing season.


Table - Performance of all SP favourites and when firming.

  All Favourites    Firming Favourites   
All AgesHorsesWinwin%Av Div All AgesHorsesWinwin%Av Div
Overall16834596535.4%2.55 Overall9592350136.5%2.50
Metropolitan3602120433.4%2.70 Metropolitan186964034.2%2.65
Provincial6206220335.5%2.50 Provincial3529129436.7%2.40
Country7026255836.4%2.50 Country4194156737.4%2.45
2yoHorsesWinwin%Av Div 2yoHorsesWinwin%Av Div
Overall71227738.9%2.20 Overall39916441.1%2.05
Metropolitan2589737.6%2.40 Metropolitan1284938.3%2.30
Provincial28110236.3%2.15 Provincial1585937.3%2.00
Country1737845.1%2.00 Country1135649.6%1.90
3yoHorsesWinwin%Av Div 3yoHorsesWinwin%Av Div
Overall5322205838.7%2.40 Overall2832114340.4%2.30
Metropolitan115640434.9%2.55 Metropolitan56221237.7%2.45
Provincial235991438.7%2.40 Provincial127649338.6%2.30
Country180774041.0%2.35 Country99443844.1%2.20
4yo+HorsesWinwin%Av Div 4yo+HorsesWinwin%Av Div
Overall11033367933.3%2.70 Overall6399219934.4%2.60
Metropolitan224071131.7%2.85 Metropolitan118738032.0%2.80
Provincial3685121132.9%2.60 Provincial211774435.1%2.55
Country7348246833.6%2.70 Country3095107534.7%2.55


There are a number of take-aways from this analysis:

  • The win strike rate is higher if a firmer, but usually this is a marginal improvement.
  • Win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
  • Win strike rates are higher for 2yo and 3yo gallopers, compared to those 4yo and older.
  • No category shows a flat stake profit but some do manage a 0.90-0.95 return.

(to be continued)


Warren - Wiz-Ed

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