Betting Markets (part 13) - Runs from a Spell

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 1 January 2024.

Betting Markets (part 13)

 

Betting Markets - Starting Price Favourite - Runs from a spell.

This report looks at the performance of the firming Starting Price (SP) Favourite when having its first, second, and third runs after returning from a spell.

The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. It was necessary to extend the analysis to two seasons to obtain sufficient results and to provide a reasonable level of confidence about the relevance of the results to the longer term.

The fluctuation used here for comparison purposes is the mid-point odds reported by AAP/Mediality and the horse is categorised as a firmer if the SP is shorter than the mid-point price. 

The analysis reports on the success rate of the firming Starting Price Favourite in terms of:

Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:

  • Overall all locations
  • Metropolitan racing
  • Provincial racing
  • Country racing

Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

Table  -  Starting price favourite results Runs from spell - 2021-2023 seasons.

  1st-up  2nd-up  3rd-up 
All AgesFirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%
Overall249394037.7%3490135838.9%3084110235.7%
Metropolitan52417633.6%82830536.8%73625034.0%
Provincial97437838.8%139154138.9%113540936.0%
Country99538638.8%127151240.3%121344336.5%
          
  1st-up  2nd-up  3rd-up 
2yoFirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%
Overall883539.8%2339741.6%1094844.0%
Metropolitannanananananananana
Provincialnanananananananana
Countrynanananananananana
          
  1st-up  2nd-up  3rd-up 
3yoFirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%
Overall99338138.4%138757941.7%105842440.1%
Metropolitan2076933.3%32712337.6%26710137.8%
Provincial44517739.8%63426942.4%45817337.8%
Country34113539.6%42618743.9%33315045.0%
          
  1st-up  2nd-up  3rd-up 
4yo+FirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%FirmingWinwin%
Overall141652537.1%187868436.4%192263132.8%
Metropolitan2969933.4%41014435.1%43213531.3%
Provincial48818638.1%67223935.6%63621533.8%
Country63224038.0%79630137.8%85428132.9%

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

Some take-aways from this analysis:

  • For 4yo and older the win strike rate is similar 1st-up and 2nd-up and lower 3rd-up.
  • For 3yo's the strike improved when 2nd-up and 3rd-up, compared to 1st-up.
  • Win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
  • Win strike rates are generally higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.

When researching this topic, I also checked the overall strikes rates for the Wizard 100 pointer (Wrat) during the 2021-2023 seasons if it ran as a firming Starting Price favourite and was 1st-up, 2nd-up, or 3rd-up. The figures were:  all ages, overall, 1st-up (43.5%), 2nd-up (43.9%), and 3rd-up (40.9%).

(to be continued)

 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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