Wizard Daily Report and Research - Monday, 1 January 2024.
Betting Markets (part 13)
Betting Markets - Starting Price Favourite - Runs from a spell.
This report looks at the performance of the firming Starting Price (SP) Favourite when having its first, second, and third runs after returning from a spell.
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023. It was necessary to extend the analysis to two seasons to obtain sufficient results and to provide a reasonable level of confidence about the relevance of the results to the longer term.
The fluctuation used here for comparison purposes is the mid-point odds reported by AAP/Mediality and the horse is categorised as a firmer if the SP is shorter than the mid-point price.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the firming Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table - Starting price favourite results Runs from spell - 2021-2023 seasons.
| | | 1st-up | | | 2nd-up | | | 3rd-up | |
| All Ages | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% |
| Overall | 2493 | 940 | 37.7% | 3490 | 1358 | 38.9% | 3084 | 1102 | 35.7% |
| Metropolitan | 524 | 176 | 33.6% | 828 | 305 | 36.8% | 736 | 250 | 34.0% |
| Provincial | 974 | 378 | 38.8% | 1391 | 541 | 38.9% | 1135 | 409 | 36.0% |
| Country | 995 | 386 | 38.8% | 1271 | 512 | 40.3% | 1213 | 443 | 36.5% |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 1st-up | | | 2nd-up | | | 3rd-up | |
| 2yo | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% |
| Overall | 88 | 35 | 39.8% | 233 | 97 | 41.6% | 109 | 48 | 44.0% |
| Metropolitan | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Provincial | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| Country | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 1st-up | | | 2nd-up | | | 3rd-up | |
| 3yo | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% |
| Overall | 993 | 381 | 38.4% | 1387 | 579 | 41.7% | 1058 | 424 | 40.1% |
| Metropolitan | 207 | 69 | 33.3% | 327 | 123 | 37.6% | 267 | 101 | 37.8% |
| Provincial | 445 | 177 | 39.8% | 634 | 269 | 42.4% | 458 | 173 | 37.8% |
| Country | 341 | 135 | 39.6% | 426 | 187 | 43.9% | 333 | 150 | 45.0% |
| | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 1st-up | | | 2nd-up | | | 3rd-up | |
| 4yo+ | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% | Firming | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1416 | 525 | 37.1% | 1878 | 684 | 36.4% | 1922 | 631 | 32.8% |
| Metropolitan | 296 | 99 | 33.4% | 410 | 144 | 35.1% | 432 | 135 | 31.3% |
| Provincial | 488 | 186 | 38.1% | 672 | 239 | 35.6% | 636 | 215 | 33.8% |
| Country | 632 | 240 | 38.0% | 796 | 301 | 37.8% | 854 | 281 | 32.9% |
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo and older the win strike rate is similar 1st-up and 2nd-up and lower 3rd-up.
- For 3yo's the strike improved when 2nd-up and 3rd-up, compared to 1st-up.
- Win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
- Win strike rates are generally higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.
When researching this topic, I also checked the overall strikes rates for the Wizard 100 pointer (Wrat) during the 2021-2023 seasons if it ran as a firming Starting Price favourite and was 1st-up, 2nd-up, or 3rd-up. The figures were: all ages, overall, 1st-up (43.5%), 2nd-up (43.9%), and 3rd-up (40.9%).
(to be continued)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com