Distance Ranges - Age and Location

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 2 January 2024.

Distance Ranges - age and location

 

Distance Ranges - Starting Price Favourite performance.

This report looks at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite when racing over four distinct distance ranges.

For this report the ranges are:

  800m 1399m          sprint

1400m 1799m          middle distance sprint

1800m 2399m          middle distance staying

2400m 3200m          long distance staying

The results cover the last five years, since 1 January 2019.

The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:

Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:

  • Overall all locations
  • Metropolitan racing
  • Provincial racing
  • Country racing

Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

 

Table  1 - Distance Ranges - Starting price favourite performance.

  800m  1400m  1800m  2400m 
  1399m  1799m  2399m  3200m 
2yoSP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall3812148438.9%37113035.0%nananananana
Metropolitan132348736.8%1785530.9%nananananana
Provincial147755537.6%1616540.4%nananananana
Country101244243.7%nanananananananana
             
  800m  1400m  1800m  2400m 
  1399m  1799m  2399m  3200m 
3yoSP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall19544734337.6%8766315836.0%171260135.1%1385036.2%
Metropolitan3589125935.1%198267634.1%44114532.9%772836.4%
Provincial7861298738.0%3995146736.7%89730634.1%491938.8%
Country8094309738.3%2789101536.4%37415040.1%nanana
             
  800m  1400m  1800m  2400m 
  1399m  1799m  2399m  3200m 
4yo+SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall350201156533.0%22314698731.3%8174269533.0%146649433.7%
Metropolitan4953159432.2%4256134531.6%211967431.8%63719931.2%
Provincial8574288933.7%6543204331.2%274793133.9%66223936.1%
Country21493708233.0%11515359931.3%3308109033.0%1675633.5%

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

 

To provide some further context to these results I have calculated the percentage of distance range sub-sets of the four researched distance ranges.

 

Table 2 - Distance Range sub-sets

 2yo   3yo   4yo+ 
 800m   800m   800m 
 1399m   1399m   1399m 
total3812  total19544  total35020 
to 1199m249265% to 1199m970950% to 1199m1649047%
12-1399m132035% 12-1399m983550% 12-1399m1853053%
           
 2yo   3yo   4yo+ 
 1400m   1400m   1400m 
 1799m   1799m   1799m 
total371  total8766  total22314 
14-1699m368100% 14-1699m848797% 14-1699m2114595%
17-1799m3na 17-1799m2793% 17-1799m11695%
           
 2yo   3yo   4yo+ 
 1800m   1800m   1800m 
 2399m   2399m   2399m 
totalna  total1712  total8174 
    18-1899m54832% 18-1899m227328%
    19-2199m90953% 19-2199m457356%
    22-2399m25515% 22-2399m132816%
           
 2yo   3yo   4yo+ 
 2400m   2400m   2400m 
 3200m   3200m   3200m 
totalna  total138  total1466 
    24-2500m9065% 24-2500m78353%
    >2500m4835% >2500m68347%

Note: The relative high percentage for the 4yo+ horses in the >2500m category is due to jumping races being included.

Some take-aways from this analysis:

  • For 4yo and older the win strike rates are similar across all locations.
  • For 3yo's win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
  • Win strike rates are generally higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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