Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 3 January 2024.
Days since last run (part 1)
Days since last run - Within 28 days
This report looks at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite when returning to the racetrack within 28 days of its last run.
For this report the ranges are:
1 - 7 days
8 - 14 days
15 - 21 days
22 - 28 days
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall - all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
Table - Days since last run - age and location.
| | | Days | | | Days | | | Days | | | Days | |
| | | 1-7 | | | 8-14 | | | 15-21 | | | 22-28 | |
| 2yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 320 | 134 | 41.9% | 304 | 134 | 44.1% | 116 | 48 | 41.4% |
| Metropolitan | na | na | na | 159 | 59 | 37.1% | 106 | 47 | 44.3% | na | na | na |
| Provincial | na | na | na | 101 | 44 | 43.6% | 121 | 52 | 43.0% | na | na | na |
| Country | na | na | na | 60 | 31 | 51.7% | 77 | 35 | 45.4% | na | na | na |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 1-7 | | | 8-14 | | | 15-21 | | | 22-28 | |
| 3yo | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 304 | 108 | 35.5% | 3041 | 1148 | 37.8% | 3114 | 1183 | 38.0% | 1147 | 428 | 37.3% |
| Metropolitan | 87 | 29 | 33.3% | 826 | 290 | 35.1% | 653 | 216 | 33.1% | 252 | 88 | 34.9% |
| Provincial | 108 | 41 | 38.0% | 1207 | 455 | 37.7% | 1405 | 537 | 38.2% | 481 | 161 | 33.5% |
| Country | 109 | 38 | 34.9% | 1008 | 403 | 40.0% | 1056 | 430 | 40.7% | 414 | 179 | 43.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | 1-7 | | | 8-14 | | | 15-21 | | | 22-28 | |
| 4yo+ | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% | SP Fav | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1579 | 524 | 33.2% | 7408 | 2520 | 34.0% | 6225 | 2062 | 33.1% | 2600 | 840 | 32.3% |
| Metropolitan | 317 | 103 | 32.5% | 1706 | 577 | 33.8% | 1387 | 440 | 31.7% | 517 | 156 | 30.2% |
| Provincial | 425 | 128 | 30.1% | 2341 | 802 | 34.3% | 2041 | 677 | 33.2% | 853 | 260 | 30.5 |
| Country | 837 | 293 | 35.0% | 3361 | 1141 | 33.9% | 2797 | 945 | 33.8% | 1230 | 424 | 34.5% |
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo and older the win strike rates are similar across all time periods.
- For 3yo's win strikes rates are higher in provincial and country racing.
- Win strike rates are higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.
- 2yo favourites mostly have their races spaced by 2 or 3 weeks, 8-14 and 15-21 days.
(to be continued)
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com