Days since last run (part 3) - Wizard Rating

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Friday, 5 January 2024.

Days since last run (part 3)

 

Days since last run - Wizard Rating

This report looks at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite in terms of runs from a spell and integrates the Wizard Rating (Wrat) into the analysis.

The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

The analysis reports on the overall success rate of the Starting Price Favourite across the various days-break categories and then sees how these runners have performed when they ran as the Wizard 100 pointer.

The analysis reports on three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

 

                                                                          Table - Days since last run - Overall and Wizard Rated.

  1-7  8-14  15-21  22-28 
2yoSP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall25936.0%32013441.9%30413444.1%1164841.4%
Wizard Wratnanana2079445.4%1868646.2%nanana
             
  1-7  8-14  15-21  22-28 
3yoSP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall30410835.5%3041114837.8%3114118338.0%114742837.3%
Wizard Wrat1697142.0%166467840.7%174571140.7%65724737.6%
             
  1-7  8-14  15-21  22-28 
4yo+SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall157952433.2%7408252034.0%6225206233.1%260084032.3%
Wizard Wrat59221836.8%3524130537.0%3023109636.3%126644735.3%
             
             
  29-60  61-180  181-365  >365 
2yoSP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall803037.5%1837138.8%14857.1nanana
Wizard Wrat532139.6%903437.8%nananananana
             
  29-60  61-180  181-365  >365 
3yoSP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall67524536.3%159159337.3%39714536.5%16850.0%
Wizard Wrat36314840.8%76929438.2%1676840.7%nanana
             
  29-60  61-180  181-365  >365 
4yo+SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%SP FavWinwin%
Overall175152730.1%180963435.0%78026834.4%*973334.0%
Wizard Wrat81127233.5%71928139.1%34313439.1%*241145.8%

na insufficient runners for meaningful result

* insufficient runners for meaningful result

It is clear from these results that there is an uplift factor in play when the SP favourite is rated 100 by the Wizard.

 

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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