Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 9 January 2024.
Beaten margin last start - SP favourite lead-in race.
In a recent Daily Report, we looked at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when coming off a particular last-start finish position. In this report we again look at the relevance of the lead-in race to the SP favourite's performance, here in terms of the last-start beaten margin.
For this report the last-start beaten margin ranges are:
- 0.1 - 3.0 lengths
- 3.1 - 5.0 lengths
- 5.1 - 10.0 lengths
To provide a frame of reference I have included the results when the SP favourite was a last start winner.
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
(Note: A further condition has been applied in this analysis - the horse must have raced within the last 1 to 59 days; that is, we are excluding horses resuming from a spell.)
Table - SP favourite performance and Last Start Beaten Margin
| 2yo | LS win | Win | win% | 0.1-3.0 | Win | win% | 3.1-5.0 | Win | win% | 5.1-10.0 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 257 | 116 | 45.1% | 626 | 270 | 43.1% | 144 | 53 | 36.8% | *59 | 24 | 40.7% |
| Metropolitan | 167 | 73 | 43.7% | 284 | 111 | 39.1% | *45 | 11 | 24.4% | *17 | 9 | 52.9% |
| Provincial | *45 | 19 | 42.2% | 199 | 90 | 45.2% | *53 | 22 | 41.5% | *23 | 7 | 30.4% |
| Country | *45 | 24 | 53.5% | 143 | 69 | 48.3% | *46 | 20 | 43.5% | *19 | 8 | 42.1% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 3yo | LS win | Win | win% | 0.1-3.0 | Win | win% | 3.1-5.0 | Win | win% | 5.1-10.0 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 1919 | 694 | 36.2% | 5936 | 2266 | 38.2% | 1389 | 515 | 37.1% | 760 | 277 | 36.4% |
| Metropolitan | 764 | 238 | 31.9% | 1530 | 526 | 34.4% | 273 | 98 | 35.7% | *98 | 29 | 29.6% |
| Provincial | 657 | 250 | 38.1% | 2472 | 939 | 38.0% | 612 | 222 | 36.3% | 318 | 118 | 37.1% |
| Country | 516 | 206 | 39.9% | 1934 | 801 | 41.4% | 504 | 195 | 38.7% | 344 | 130 | 37.8% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 4yo+ | LS win | Win | win% | 0.1-3.0 | Win | win% | 3.1-5.0 | Win | win% | 5.1-10.0 | Win | win% |
| Overall | 4565 | 1622 | 35.5% | 13480 | 4517 | 33.5% | 3395 | 1125 | 33.1% | 2066 | 669 | 32.4% |
| Metropolitan | 1446 | 495 | 34.2% | 3327 | 1079 | 32.4% | 556 | 191 | 34.4% | 225 | 68 | 30.2% |
| Provincial | 1256 | 437 | 34.8% | 4240 | 1428 | 33.7% | 1093 | 330 | 30.2% | 643 | 206 | 32.0% |
| Country | 1863 | 690 | 37.0% | 5913 | 2010 | 34.0% | 1746 | 604 | 34.6% | 1198 | 395 | 33.0% |
* - insufficient runners for meaningful result
na - insufficient runners for meaningful result
Some take-aways from this analysis:
- For 4yo+ gallopers, the overall success rate marginally declines as the beaten margin worsens.
- For 3yo's, win strikes rates are similar across the board, except for the 29.6% outlier.
- For 3yo's, overall SP favs who are last start winners do not enjoy an advantage over other categories.
- Win strike rates are higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.
- Again, there is a pattern of the provincial and country percentages being higher than the metropolitan.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com