Beaten margin last start - SP favourite lead-in race.

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 9 January 2024.

Beaten margin last start - SP favourite lead-in race.

In a recent Daily Report, we looked at the performance of the Starting Price (SP) Favourite and its success rate when coming off a particular last-start finish position. In this report we again look at the relevance of the lead-in race to the SP favourite's performance, here in terms of the last-start beaten margin.

For this report the last-start beaten margin ranges are:

  • 0.1 -   3.0 lengths
  • 3.1 -   5.0 lengths
  • 5.1 - 10.0 lengths

To provide a frame of reference I have included the results when the SP favourite was a last start winner.

The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

The analysis reports on the success rate of the Starting Price Favourite in terms of:

Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:

  • Overall all locations
  • Metropolitan racing
  • Provincial racing
  • Country racing

Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:

  • 2yo gallopers
  • 3yo gallopers
  • 4yo+ gallopers

(Note: A further condition has been applied in this analysis - the horse must have raced within the last 1 to 59 days; that is, we are excluding horses resuming from a spell.)

 

                                                                               Table - SP favourite performance and Last Start Beaten Margin

2yoLS winWinwin%0.1-3.0Winwin%3.1-5.0Winwin%5.1-10.0Winwin%
Overall25711645.1%62627043.1%1445336.8%*592440.7%
Metropolitan1677343.7%28411139.1%*451124.4%*17952.9%
Provincial*451942.2%1999045.2%*532241.5%*23730.4%
Country*452453.5%1436948.3%*462043.5%*19842.1%
             
3yoLS winWinwin%0.1-3.0Winwin%3.1-5.0Winwin%5.1-10.0Winwin%
Overall191969436.2%5936226638.2%138951537.1%76027736.4%
Metropolitan76423831.9%153052634.4%2739835.7%*982929.6%
Provincial65725038.1%247293938.0%61222236.3%31811837.1%
Country51620639.9%193480141.4%50419538.7%34413037.8%
             
4yo+LS winWinwin%0.1-3.0Winwin%3.1-5.0Winwin%5.1-10.0Winwin%
Overall4565162235.5%13480451733.5%3395112533.1%206666932.4%
Metropolitan144649534.2%3327107932.4%55619134.4%2256830.2%
Provincial125643734.8%4240142833.7%109333030.2%64320632.0%
Country186369037.0%5913201034.0%174660434.6%119839533.0%

* - insufficient runners for meaningful result

na - insufficient runners for meaningful result

 

Some take-aways from this analysis:

  • For 4yo+ gallopers, the overall success rate marginally declines as the beaten margin worsens.
  • For 3yo's, win strikes rates are similar across the board, except for the 29.6% outlier.
  • For 3yo's, overall SP favs who are last start winners do not enjoy an advantage over other categories.
  • Win strike rates are higher for 3yo gallopers compared to those of 4yo+.
  • Again, there is a pattern of the provincial and country percentages being higher than the metropolitan.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com



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