The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

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Wizard Facebook Post - Melbourne Cup Winners - Market Movement

BETTING ESSENTIALS - CS says: "The detail is gold in terms of learning and reminding us of how to gain an edge."

 

Warren Block's Daily Report - Monday, 2 November 2026

  • Wizard Facebook Post - Melbourne Cup Winners - Market Movement
  • Trainer-Jockey Combinations - Last 4 weeks
  • Matrix - day by day analysis for Monday and Tuesday racing
  • Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials report
  • Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results and Weekly Summary

 

Wizard Facebook Post - Melbourne Cup Winners - Market Movement

On the Wizard Facebook page (www.facebook.com/wizard formguide) there is a daily post drawing on the content one or more of the Wizard reports. For those Wizard subscribers who dont have a Facebook account it is re-posted here. Hopefully you find the summary useful.

WIZARD FORMGUIDE Be Better Informed

Melbourne Cup Reviewed 2005 to 2025

Monday - 2 November 2026

 

Saturday - Part 1 - The Jockeys & Trainers

Sunday    - Part 2 - Lead-in-Race Analysis

Today      - Part 3 - The Market Movements

Tuesday  - Part 4 - The Favourites Analysed

 

PART 3 THE MARKET MOVEMENTS

Was the Cup winner the favourite? What were the betting fluctuations for each winner over the last 45 minutes before the start? Here is the data sourced from the Wizard race results for every Melbourne Cup winner since 2005.

The race favourite has disappointed with just two (9.5%) winning in the 21 years, Makybe Diva ($4.50, 2005) and Fiorente ($7, 2013). In terms of Starting Price odds, 8 (38.1%) winners started at $10 or shorter, and 4 (19.0%) started at $26 or longer, including Prince of Penzance (2015) and Knight's Choice (2024), both at $101.

  • Only two winners firmed from their 45 minute quoted odds in the final half-hour, (Fiorente $7.50 to $7.00 in 2013 and Cross Counter $10 to $9 in 2018.
  • Nine of the Cup winners drifted in the later stage of the betting.
  • Steady prices are common: 10 winners started at the same price they were showing 45 minutes out.
  • Six winners moved mid-market before returning to their earlier price, including Gold Trip ($21$17$21) and Verry Elleegant ($17$21$17).
  • Late drifters: 8 of the 9 drifters held their price until midway through betting and then eased by race start, such as Half Yours ($8.50 to $9) and Rekindling ($13 to $15).

2025 Half Yours (5g): Jamie Melham / Tony & Calvin McEvoy, bp 8, 53kg. Market: $8.50 $8.50 $9.00.

2024 Knight's Choice (5g): Robbie Dolan / J Symons & S Laxon, bp 5, 51.5kg.  Market: $61 $61 $101.

2023 Without A Fight (IRE) (7g): Mark Zahra / A & S Freedman, bp 16, 56.5kg. Market: $8.00 $8.00 $8.00.

2022 Gold Trip (FR) (6h): Mark Zahra / C Maher & D Eustace, bp 13, 57.5kg. Market: $21 $17 $21.

2021 Verry Elleegant (NZ) (6m): James McDonald / Chris Waller, bp 18, 57kg. Market: $17 $21 $17.

2020 Twilight Payment (IRE) (8g): Jye McNeil / Joseph O'Brien, bp 12, 55.5kg. Market: $26 $21 $26.

2019 Vow And Declare (4g): Craig Williams / Danny O'Brien, bp 21, 52kg. Market: $13 $15 $13.

2018 Cross Counter (GB) (4g): Kerrin McEvoy / Charlie Appleby, bp 19, 51kg. Market: $10 $10 $9.00.

2017 Rekindling (GB) (4h): Corey Brown / Joseph O'Brien, bp 4, 51.5kg. Market: $13 $13 $15.

2016 Almandin (GER) (7g): Kerrin McEvoy / Robert Hickmott, bp 17, 52kg. Market: $10 $10 $11.

2015 Prince of Penzance (NZ) (6g): Michelle Payne / Darren Weir, bp 1, 53kg. Market: $101 $101 $101.

2014 Protectionist (GER) (5h): Ryan Moore / Andreas Wohler, bp 10, 56.5kg. Market: $8.00 $8.00 $8.00.

2013 Fiorente (IRE) (6h): Damien Oliver / Gai Waterhouse, bp 5, 55kg. Market: $7.50 $7.50 $7.00 fav.

2012 Green Moon (IRE) (6h): Brett Prebble / Robert Hickmott, bp 5, 53.5kg. Market: $17 $17 $21.

2011 Dunaden (FR) (6h): Christophe Lemaire / Mikel Delzangles, bp 13, 54.5kg. Market: $8.50 $9.00 $8.50.

2010 Americain (USA) (6h): Gerald Mosse / Alain de Royer-Dupre, bp 11, 54.5kg. Market: $13 $13 $13.

2009 Shocking (4h): Corey Brown / Mark Kavanagh, bp 22, 51kg. Market: $10 $11 $10.

2008 Viewed (5h): Blake Shinn / Bart Cummings, bp 8, 53kg. Market: $31 $31 $41.

2007 Efficient (NZ) (4g): Michael Rodd / Graeme Rogerson, bp 10, 54.5kg. Market: $15 $15 $17.

2006 Delta Blues (JPN) (6h): Yasunari Iwata / Katsuhiko Sumii, bp 10, 56kg. Market: $16 $16 $17.

2005 Makybe Diva (GB) (7m): Glen Boss / Lee Freedman, bp 14, 58kg. Market: $4.20 $4.50 $4.50 fav.

 

Trainer-Jockey Winning Combinations - Last 4 weeks

Each Monday I post a table showing the stables that have won at least 5 races over the previous 4 weeks and list the jockeys who rode at least one of those winners, as well as their total rides for the stable, during that period.

Identifying in-form and "outperforming" trainer-jockey combinations should be a key component of any form analysts race/horse assessment and this Wizard report can help you to identify these combinations.

 

Matrix - day by day analysis for Monday and Tuesday racing

The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Monday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Monday and Tuesday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.

(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)

 

Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials report

The Wizard publishes on this page one of its Wizard reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today it is a Wizard Essentials Wrat 4 report. The full report and all other reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.

The Wizard Essentials report is a very useful resource, for key data that race handicappers need is at their fingertips. Included are the Wizard's four ratings assessments, each focusing on different time-proven ways of rating runners, and other key (likely) performance indicators, some of which are unique to the Wizard. For example, the Filter and Negatives assessments, the in-running (pace) insights, and form pattern stats (RFS).

 In addition to this Essentials WRat4 report there is also an Essentials Full-Field version available.

Click here for an explanation of the Wizard Essentials Report.

 

Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results and Weekly Summary

We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.

The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the What-IF top-two Filtered, together with the Matrix W1+MaxR100 Selective qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 Selective qualifier. Also included are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2024-2025 column shows the WRat results for the full racing season.

This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is highlighted. Also, the single runner options are grouped separately, as are the two-horse and multi-horse options results, again to make comparisons easier.

The following table shows last week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations, which draw directly on the contributions of the Raceday and Magic reports, are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website around 10:30am, and updated at 12 noon, each day.

(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic,  RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier, Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)

Some of the more notable double-figure winners last week that were top rated on WMod, WHcp, WExpk and/or top-rated (WRat-1) or rated second top (WRat-2):

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

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Welcome to everyrace.com, the official website for the Wizard Formguide, Superform magazine and Online Handicapping.

The Wizard provides an in-depth, comprehensive coverage (ratings, statistics, reports, and detailed race form) for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

As well as the Wizard ratings, statistics, reports and detailed form, Wizard users can access the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and Wizard Systems.

Superform subscribers receive the weekly Superform magazine (results for all meetings in Australia and New Zealand), the daily Superfax selections service, the Saturday Morning Mail service, and access to the Superform Daily handicapping system.

The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the ability to generate individualised Wizard Systems.

The Betting Essentials Book on Horse Racing by Warren Block

Wizard

The Wizard is an online formguide available every day from this website. It provides form and ratings for all Australian and New Zealand meetings covered by Tabcorp.

The formguide is supplied as downloadable and printable PDF files. Buying the Wizard also gives you access to the Wizard rewards program, featuring the Wizard archive and the Wizard Systems.

You also have access to the Wizard Race Fields, incredibly detailed form history and statistical content live on our site (which is also optimised for mobiles)

   02/11/2026 : BALLARAT(s)
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