Wizard Daily Report and Research - Saturday, 23 March 2024.

Wizard Factorials (NEW) - Wizard Ratings Report

• Wizard Factorials (NEW)
• Wizard Ratings Results for Friday, March 22

The Wizard Plus Factorials

Wizard Plus has seven form-related columns in its Plus Panel.

Four of these panels concentrate on the quantitative side of race analysis. These are the four Wizard ratings-based analyses of a race, each reflecting a different approach to rating a race. There is Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk, all of which have been discussed in some detail in earlier Wizard Daily Reports.

The other three columns feature a different take on race analysis. The horses highlighted in these three columns are not selections. These horses are the runners in the race which either have a significant jockey/trainer combination based on recent success, or have a form (history) profile that 'fits' well with the conditions that will apply in the coming race. These columns are Wjktr, Wfilt, and Wneg. (See below for descriptions.)

I have used the term 'factorial' to describe these three elements of the Plus Panel. This is not meant to imply a mathematical foundation, rather it refers to the racing 'form-factor' aspect of the element.

So, we have the jockey/trainer factorial, the filter factorial, and the no-negatives factorial.

How should these factorials be viewed?

First, as mentioned earlier, they should not be seen as selections.

It is best to view them as 'positive identifiers'. The horses highlighted in Wjktr, Wfilt, Wneg are assessed as having certain positive attributes coming into the race. It does not mean that they are assessed as the best winning chances, the four ratings columns highlight those runners, but they do point to horses that might be advantaged in the coming race.

To help Wizard Plus users appreciate the contribution these factorials can make to their race analysis Wizard will publish the day by day results weekly, each Saturday. Today the full results for the week ending March 17 can be found below. There were 381 races covered in this week, a sizeable sample, and the summary results shown below are representative.

By way of a summary, the overall stats for that week were:

 Table - Factorials summary for week ending March 17

This table shows the number/percentage of races that included a particular factorial.

The 'Facts' column shows how many horses were included as 'qualifiers' in each race. So, '0' means that there was no horse listed in the relevant Plus Panel column, '1' that one runner was identified as qualified and included, '2' that two horses qualified and were included, and so on.

As you can see it is most common for 1 or 2 horses to be listed in a race, under each of the three factorials. With respect to the 'filter' and 'negatives' factorials around 2/3rd of the races will not have a qualifier.

Overall, in the races with a populated Wjktr column there were 37.5% that were won by a Wjktr runner; in the races with a Wfilt qualifier 28% were won by a Wfilt runner; in the races with a Wneg qualifier 33.5% were won by a Wneg runner

We have found that there is value in combining the ratings-based and 'factorial' assessments when making final selections and this aspect will be addressed in following articles.

Also, we have found that some trainers 'out-perform' when these 'factorials' are in play.

For example, when horses were in the $2.00 to $5.90 starting price odds range:

Nathan Doyle (NSW) has shown a profit in 4 of the past 5 years with horses qualified as Wjktr, with a 46% strike rate, which returned an overall 39% profit on turnover.

Patrick (Paddy) Payne (Vic) has shown a profit in each of the past 5 years with horses qualified as Wfilt, with a 44% strike rate, which returned an overall 47% profit on turnover.

Neville Parnham (WA) has shown a profit in each of the past 5 years with horses qualified as Wneg, with a 40% strike rate, which returned an overall 32% profit on turnover.

There are numerous trainers around Australia showing similar results.

We will be having much more to say about these trainers in coming weeks.

                                                           Table - Wizard Plus Factorials Report for the week ending March 17.

Header -  jt (Wjktr), f (Wfilt), n (Wneg)

The table shows if the winner of a race was highlighted in a Factorial column.  .

For example, a cell entry of 1 - 0 would read as:

.. 1 .. winner was highlighted

.. - .. race not won by an included runner

.. 0 .. no horse highlighted in that factorial column

Wjktr

This assessment is designed to reflect the quality of the recent performance of the jockey/trainer combinations that are relevant to the race. When a level of performance exceeds our current benchmark the runner will have an asterisk placed in the Wjktr column. If more than one combination in the race meets or exceeds the Wizard benchmark then each will earn an asterisk. 

Wfilt

The Wizard also examines and reports on some key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race.

The ten major factors covered in this analysis are Wrat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, wet track form. We apply minimum requirements to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive rating, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative rating.

Wneg

The Wizard (Wneg) analysis of negative factors facing each runner is similar in concept to the Wizard filter analysis (Wfilt), but is more demanding. With Wneg it is a binary decision, either the factor is negative, or it is not.

There are 10 factors considered age, form cycle (run from spell), jockey, trainer, Wrat ranking, consistency, quality of form in last 12 months, distance, running style, and class change.

What is highlighted in the Wizard Plus Panel are any runners that have zero negatives for this race.

Wizard Ratings Report for the meetings on Friday, March 22

The following table shows the where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Header - w m h e =  Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk

The table shows the where the winner of each race was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk in that order. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

For example, a cell entry of 1 2. 3 would read as:

.. 1 .. rated 1st (100 pointer) on Wrat

.. - .. not rated in the top three on Wmod

.. 2. .. rated equal 2nd on Whcp (the full stop after the numeric indicates it was rated equal 2nd)

.. 3 .. rated 3rd on Wexpk

As well as the results for individual races there a summary for each meeting which shows the number of winners for each of the Wizard and Wizard Plus ratings. An entry showing '4 3 0 2.' would be read as follows:

.. 4 .. 4 of the winners were rated 1st on Wrat

.. 3 .. 3 of the winners were rated 1st on Wmod

.. 0 .. no winner was rated 1st on Whcp

.. 2. .. 2 winners were rated 1st on Wexpk but at least one of these was an equal top-rater

With respect to equal-rated runners: This does not happen with Wrat as we have an algorithm that separates runners by adjusting the base ratings by career-record and form-related factors. The same procedure is applied with the Wmod, but not as extensively, and occasionally equal-rated horses could appear, but infrequently.

Where equal-rated runners are more common is in the ratings analysis that is basically pure weight handicapping, the Whcp and Wexpk analyses.

Warren - Wiz-Ed

If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:

Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com