Warren Block's Daily Report - Saturday, 24 January 2026
- NEW - Wizard What-IF report and dont forget to download BETTING ESSENTIALS today
- Matrix day-by-day results for Saturday and Sunday racing
- Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results
Wizard What-IF report - Addressing Risk and Uncertainty (NEW)
The newest Wizard report is the What-IF report which is available with the first upload of Wizards race files and is then updated on race morning.
The Wizard What-IF report has more than one application. It can help to identify the horse/s best suited in a race and possessing the more reliable form. Also, it can help to differentiate between races that represent a positive betting opportunity from those whose fields are below par in terms of the revealed form of the runners.
Here, dealing with the individual horse assessment.
The What-IF report profiles the six top rated Wizard WRat runners in each race. The data in the report shows the record of each horse when it started at 10/1 or less, and/or won at longer odds, in a race in the distance range. (Note: The Filter and Negative scores are different and are discussed later.)
The heading in each data column shows the Wizard WRat ranking, followed by the horses race/tab number. So, 4-1 (Fine Vintage) in this race 7 at Canterbury means this horse (Fine Vintage) is the WRats fourth top-rater and is tab number 1.
In terms of horse suitability, What-IF focuses on fitness and form. It does this through indicators that are relevant to these form factors:
- days since last run - (1-7 days, 8-14, 15-21, 22-29, 30-60, 61-179, 180-365, 365+ days)
- runs from a spell - (1st up, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7+up)
- finish position last start - (First, 2nd-3rd, 4th-9th, 10th or worse)
- beaten margin last start - (0.1-3.0 lengths, 3.1-5.0, 5.1-10, more than 10 lengths)
- winning margin last start - (0.1-3.0 lengths, 3.1-5.0, 5.1-10, more than 10 lengths)
- days since last win - (1-7 days, 8-14, 15-21, 22-29, 30-60, 61-179, 180-365, 365+ days)
This means that for days since last run, one horses stats may refer to a date range of 1 to 7 days, as it is backing up after racing three days earlier, whilst another runners stats refer to its 8-14 days range, as it last raced 10 days ago. Each horse is assessed on its specific criteria and compared to its peer group with matching criteria.
When there is relevant data available, there are two numbers for each horse:
- first number, is the number of qualifying runs
- second number, the win percentage for that indicator
- for horse 4-1 in race 7 above, for finish last start, 2-50 means it had 2 starts that met the qualifying criteria and won 1 time (50%)
For each horse, its numbers are benchmarked against the record of its peers (runners of the same age group) that have won in the distance range. The numbers are colour coded red if the horses record (win percentage) is better than its peers.
With respect to reliability, included in the FITNESS FORM category are each runners Wizard Filter and Negatives scores. As these scores are determined by the record of the horse when running under similar conditions, they are a particularly relevant indicator of how well, and how consistently, it has performed over time. The higher the number, the better the score.
(The major factors covered in the Filter analysis are WRat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, and wet track form. Minimum requirements apply to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive score, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative score).
In the above example, horse 4-1 has a Filter score of +7, which is a good score, with scores of +10 or more not commonly recorded. A score of +7 or better is considered to be a good score, in terms of runner reliability.
The Negatives score for horse 4-1 is 0 (zero), which is very favourable given that means no negatives, based on the horses form to date under similar race conditions.
The lower section of the What-IF report addresses the issue of uncertainty, by considering a range of unknown factors, and how versatile the runner is, and how adaptable it is likely to be under different race conditions. The unknowns covered are:
- in-running positions - (running 1st or 2nd to home turn, 1st to 4th, 5th to 8th to home turn)
- track conditions - (1-4 on fast to good going, 5-7 on soft going, 8-10 on heavy going)
- market action, betting fluctuations - (race favourite, firming by 3% from 30 min to 15 min, firming by 3% from 30 min to 5 min)
The adaptability and versatility for 4-1 in race 7 is clearly demonstrated by its past performance under different in-running and track conditions, thereby reducing its uncertainty factor. The numbers in this section of the report are calculated in the same way as the FITNESS FORM scores, and again these scores are benchmarked.
Also worth noting about Fine Vintage (Race 7, 4-1) was that he was top rated on WHcp and equal top-rated on WExpk, so he had the form to win this race, even though here he was assessed as 4th best rated by WRat.
As always, just remember the stats in this Wizard report are an objective representation as to how each horse has performed to date when racing under similar conditions, and aim to reduce the degree of risk and uncertainty when deciding on final selections.
Click here for a full explanation of the Wizard What-IF report
Matrix day-by-day results for Saturday and Sunday racing
The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Saturday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Saturday and Sunday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.
(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)
Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results
We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.
The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the Matrix W1+MaxR100 qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 qualifier. Also included are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season. This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is also highlighted.
The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.
(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic, RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier , Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results