Wizard Daily Report and Research - Tuesday, 20 August 2024.

• Wizard Plus Essentials Report
• Wizard Ratings Results

Wizard Plus Essentials Report

One of the most popular features of Wizard Plus is the Wizard Essentials Report. We have now made it even easier to access by adding a dedicated button to the Wizard Plus race meeting screen.

In this article we will have a closer look at the detailed information included in the data line for each runner. In this example the race is the P. B. Lawrence Stakes run at Caulfield last Saturday, August 17.

 By clicking on the Essentials button we access a drop down list of the PDF files that are available. Currently only the full data file is listed, but special purpose files are to be added shortly.

The Essentials Report covers all races to be run at the meeting. For the purposes of this discussion only the detailed report for Race 8 is being shown.

(Note: This is the updated Essentials Report which takes account of scratchings, with all ratings etc being adjusted. An earlier version is available with the normal Wizard files on the day before the race meeting.)

As can be seen there is a wealth of relevant information in the data line for each runner.

Reading from left to right

Horse Name

Name of the horse

The single asterisk (*) next to the horse's name indicates the jockey has won on the horse. A double asterisk (**) indicates a winning jockey back on replacing a jockey who has not won on the horse previously. (Note: In a forthcoming update to this Report the "winning jockey back on" asterisks will be added to the jockey name in the Report and removed from this current location.)

Gentleman Roy Gentleman Roy* Mark Zahra has won two races on Gentleman Roy but is not replacing a jockey who has also won on the horse.

Age / Sex

The age of the horse (years) and sex of the horse (c = 2yo or 3yo male, g = 4yo+ male gelding, h = 4yo+ male stallion, f = 2yo or 3yo female, m = 4yo+ female).

Gentleman Roy - 8g - 8yo gelding.

Form

The finishing positions of the horse in its last four starts.

The latest run is the number on the right-hand side of the sequence, the second last run is to its left, the run three starts back is the number third from the right-hand side, and the number on the left-hand side of the sequence is the run four starts back.

Where there has been a break of 63 days or more since the horses previous start an x indicates a spell has occurred.

Where a horse has finished 10th or worse a 0 (zero) is used to indicate that fact.

Gentleman Roy - 7911 - has won at his last two starts, and finished 9th and 7th at his prior runs.

RFS (Runs From Spell)

If the horse is resuming, or having its first ever race start, the number shown will be 1. That is, this run is the horses first start this preparation.

A figure 2 would indicate the horse is racing second-up from a spell or having its second career start. And so on.

With respect to runs from a spell it is often very useful to know if there is any pattern of success for the horse at this stage of its previous preparations. We limit this analysis to its previous campaigns where it has had as many starts from a spell as it will be having in this race.

If the horse is resuming after a spell, and has won at least once at this same stage of a previous preparation an F will be used to indicate this fact and a figure 1 will be used to indicate to which preparation it refers. (Note we look back for three preparations that have a suitable number of runs. If a horse has a preparation with insufficient runs for a match, we continue searching earlier preps to find one that does, until we have three preps assuming, of course, that a horse has that many preps.)

Examples:

Fxx1 = won first-up in its last prep but was unplaced (x) in its two previous preps

Fo1x = unplaced (x) first-up last prep, won first-up (1) two preps back, placed (o) first-up three preps back

If the horse is racing second-up, or further into its preparation, and has won at least once at this same stage in three previous campaigns a P will be used. The number preceding the P-code is the number of runs from a spell this start is coming into this race.

Example:

3 Pxo1 = third-up won third-up last prep, placed third-up two preps back, unplaced third-up three preps back.

Gentleman Roy - 5 P1x - Having his 5th run from a spell. Last preparation was unplaced when 5th-up. In an earlier preparation (to a maximum of applicable three preps) he won when having his 5th run from a spell.

EOdds Pre-post market

The Wizard Essentials pre-post market is different to other pre-post markets in that it is a composite, created by combining a number of different sources into one market. Some of these sources are publicly available markets but others are private tissues, the latter long used by bookmakers, professional punters, and other market makers.

There is another difference between the normally available pre-post markets and the Wizard pre-post (EOdds) market. Other pre-post markets typically add up to 127% to 135% after totalling the percentage/price assessment of each runner. The Wizard pre-post market is always set to 120% (can vary a little due to rounding) as this 120% better reflects the final starting price market percentage.

In the Essentials EOdds market column you will find the pre-post odds for each runner and the rankings.

Note: The Wizard pre-post market should not be confused with the Wizard assessed odds. The pre-post market is designed to reflect the likely shape of the market during actual betting, whereas the Wizard assessed odds is the Wizards pricing of the field based on the Wrat and Wtime ratings.

Gentleman Roy - 4.90 1 - Here the Wizard EOdds has the horse as the pre-post favourite at $4.90 and he is ranked 1st in this market.

Wrat

This Wrat ratings assessment takes into account relative weight handicapping advantage and is adjusted (weighted) for the following factors: the quality of current form, barrier position, form cycle, recency, distance ability, consistency, jockey, and trainer.

The top rated runner in the race has a rating of 100. A runner having its first race start has no Wrat score.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

In the 2022-23 race season The Wizard rated 17,199 races in Australia that were covered by Tabs and the corporate bookmakers,

In this 2022-23 season the Wrat 100 pointer (the top rated runner in the race) was successful in 26% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 17% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

The two highest rated Wrat horses won 44% of those 17,199 races between them.

The long term history of the Wrat shows that, on a seasonal 12 months basis, it can be expected to have an annual strike rate between 25% and 27%.

Gentleman Roy - 100 1 - He is the top-rated 100 pointer on Wrat and is ranked number 1 accordingly.

Wmod

The Wizard Wmod assessment is based on a regression analysis of race results over a 10 year period.

The main factors feeding into this assessment were relative weight advantage, age, sex, consistency, earnings, current form, best form in past 12 months, distance ability, barrier position, form cycle, jockey, and trainer.

The top-rated runner in the race has a rating of 100. With Wmod there can be more than one 100 pointer in a race.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

In the 2022-23 season the Wmod 100 pointer (the top-rated runner in the race) was successful in 24.7% of those races, at odds ranging from odds-on to longer than 20/1 (some 22% of those 100 pointers had a starting price between 6/1 and 20/1).

Gentleman Roy  - 100 1-  He is the top-rated 100 pointer on Wmod and is ranked number 1 accordingly.

Whcp

The Wizard Whcp assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for form cycle (expected improvement, deterioration), consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

One thing to note about this Whcp assessment is that equal top-rated runners can occur. That is, you can have more than one 100 pointer in a race. With this traditional relative weight handicapping analysis we do not employ a supplementary adjustment to ensure that there is only one 100 point (top rated) runner in a race as we do for Wrat.

The top-rated runners in the race will all have a rating of 100. A runner having its first race start has no Whcp score.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

Because there are sometimes equal top-rated runners in the Whcp category the overall strike rate for these 100 pointers is lower. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate was 20%. The odds range of Whcp winners was larger, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner starting at 50/1.

Gentleman Roy  - 100 1 - He is the top-rated 100 pointer on Whcp and is ranked number 1 accordingly.

Wexpk (expected peak)

The Wexpk (expected peak) analysis assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for the horse that can win if it runs to its proven best form.

As with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment can return equal top-rated runners, that is, more than one 100 pointer in a race.

The top-rated runners in the race will all have a rating of 100. A runner having its first race start has no Whcp score.

Each ratings point can be considered equal to one third (1/3) of a length. Therefore, a horse rated 97 can be seen as rating one length worse than the 100 pointer.

As well as showing the ratings score, the ranking of each runner is also included.

Also, as with Whcp, the Wexpk assessment is an almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors. The only adjustments to the WFA adjusted base ratings analysis involve bonuses or penalties for consistency, barrier position, and jockey ability.

Given the nature of this assessment, and the possibility of finding top rated runners off older form, and therefore not currently in the public eye, it is no surprise to see the overall win strike rate lower than that of the other assessments which concentrate on current form. In the 2022-23 season the win strike rate for Wexpk was 14.7%%. The odds range of Whcp winners was skewed to longer odds, with the longest priced 100 pointer winner paying $83.00.

Gentleman Roy  - 94 =3 - He is rated 94 on Wexpk (so, 2 lengths 'worse', than the Wexpk 100 pointer, Pericles) and is ranked equal 3rd.

Expected Peak (Expk) Date and Preparation

The Expected Peak rating can be drawn from either the current preparation or the previous preparation.

To make it easier to see where the horse has recorded its past peak rating this Essentials column shows the date of that run and whether it was run in its last preparation or the current campaign.

For example:

011221 = 1 December 2021 was when the horse recorded its peak (weight for age adjusted) rating.

1-5 = peak rating recorded last preparation and this start it will be having its 5th run since that expected peak was recorded.

C-2 = peak rating recorded in current preparation and this start will be its second run since that expected peak was recorded.

Gentleman Roy - 030824 C1 - The date of the Expected Peak run was 3 August 2024 and he is having his first start since recording that peak rating.

CarW% (career win percentage)

In this column Essentials shows the number of career wins and the current career win percentage. Horses without a win (maidens) will have no details recorded in this column.

For example:

2  10.5 = 2 wins and a win percentage of 10.5%

5  40.0 = 5 wins and a win percentage of 40%.

Gentleman Roy - 10 38.5 - He has won 10 races and has a win percentage of 38.5%.

WPS LY (wins-places-starts in last year)

In this column Essentials shows the number of wins and minor places (2nd and 3rd) and the number of starts recorded by the horse in the past 12 months.

For example:

2.4.10 = 2 wins, 4 places (either 2nd or 3rd), from 10 starts over the past 12 months

0.3.12 = zero wins, 3 places, from 12 starts over the past 12 months.

Gentleman Roy - 2 0 4 - He has recorded 2 wins and no minor placings in 4 starts over the last 12 months.

TCDW (track, class, distance, wet going)

This Essentials column has a quick reference guide as to how a runner has performed under four key conditions racetrack, class, distance, going.

The key to these abbreviations is as follows.

T = won at the track                                        t = placed at the track, without winning there

C = won in same or stronger company          c = placed only in same or stronger company

D = won at +/- 10% of the distance                d = placed only at +/- 10% of the distance

W = won on soft or heavy going                     w = placed only on soft or heavy going

Gentleman Roy - t DW - He has placed at this track, has no recorded win or placing in this class of race, and has won in the Distance range and on a rain affected (Wet) track.

BP (barrier position)

The barrier position.

Gentleman Roy - 9 - Drew barrier number 9. (Note: After a scratching started from 8.)

Pace - running style

The running style of a horse is often an important factor in deciding the final outcome of a race, with history showing that horses that race in or near to the lead, especially by the home turn, enjoy an advantage over backmarkers. (Check of the Wizard track profiles to confirm this observation.)

The coding used in the Pace column is as follows: F (frontrunner), O (on pace), M (midfield and off pace), B (backmarker).

The numeric following the alpha code is the possible in-running position of the horse given its more recent race history.

Gentleman Roy - F1 - Gentleman Roy's natural running style has been designated as Front-runner (F) and if he runs to that pattern is expected to lead by the home turn.

FldStr (Field Strength)

The Field Strength (FS) figure measures the difference between the quality of the field against which the horse raced last start and will confront in the forthcoming race.

Bear in mind that races of exactly the same class can vary in strength.

This means the level of competition the horse is meeting in a Weight For Age Group 2 tomorrow could be 1.5kg tougher than the WFA Group 2 field it raced at its last start and so on.

In the FS column +1.5 means tomorrows field is 1.5kg stronger than the horse met last start. On the other hand, -2.0 means tomorrows race is 2kg weaker than its last start, thereby making the task of the horse easier than might be expected given that it is racing in the same class.

Gentleman Roy - 1.0 - He is to run in a race that the Wizard assesses as being 1kg stronger than the last race contested.

Course (racetrack)

Shown here is the win minor placings starts record of each horse at today's racetrack.

Gentleman Roy - 0-2-4 - He has raced 4 times at this track and recorded 2 minor placings.

Dist (distance)

Shown here is the win minor placings starts record of each horse at this distance, or over a distance within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Gentleman Roy - 6-3-15 - Has raced 15 times in this distance range and recorded 6 wins and 3 minor placings.

Crse+Dst (course and distance)

Shown here is the Win minor placings starts record of the horse at this course and the distance, or within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Gentleman Roy - 0-1-2 - He has raced 2 times at this track and distance and recorded 1 minor placing.

Filter

The Wizard examines and reports on some key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race.

The ten major factors covered in this FILTER analysis are Wrat, age, form cycle (runs from a spell), consistency, form last 12 months, jockey, trainer, running style, distance, wet track form. We apply minimum requirements to each of these factors, and when a runner meets or exceeds that standard it earns a positive score, when it fails to meet the standard it earns a negative score.

For example, if a horse met the benchmark standard for 12 factors, but failed to meet the standard for 3 other factors, then it would get a Filter score of +9. If, on the other hand it scored negatively on 12 but did score positively on 3, then it would have a score of -9.

In total there are 15 factors that are examined, the 10 listed above, and five other factors judged as being of somewhat lesser importance for this analysis. Not all horses can be evaluated under all 15 factors, as some factors are not present in the horses form history. It is unusual for a score of more than 11 positives (+11) to be assigned to any individual horse.

Experience has shown that score of +7 and above is meaningful. Any positive score is better than a negative score, but it is worth paying closer attention to those runners with a Filter score of +7 or more.

In this Wizard Essentials report the Filter score and ranking for each runner is shown.

Gentleman Roy - 8  1 - On the Filter analysis he recorded a +8 score (positives over negatives) and ranked 1st on this analysis.

Neg (Negatives)

The Wizard analysis of negative factors facing each runner is similar in concept to the Wizard filter analysis, but is even more demanding.

With negatives it is a binary decision, either the factor is negative, or it is not.

There are 10 factors considered age, form cycle (run from spell), jockey, trainer, Wrat ranking, consistency, quality of form in last 12 months, distance, running style, and class change.

Obviously, the lower the number of negatives, the better suited the horse should be in the race.

In the Wizard Essentials Report the Negatives score for each runner is shown.

Gentleman Roy - 1 - With respect to the negatives applying to Gentleman Roy in this race, of the possible 10 negatives only 1 is present.

Jockey

Name of the jockey engaged to ride the horse.

Gentleman Roy - M J Zahra - He is to be ridden by Mark Zahra.

Joc/Hor (jockey/horse)

This Essentials column shows the record of the jockey when riding this horse.

For example:

2-0-2 = two wins from two rides

0-5-9 = zero wins, 5 placings (2nd or 3rd) from 9 rides

1-7-13 = 1 win, 7 minor places, from 13 rides

Gentleman Roy - 2-1-4 - Mark Zahra has ridden him 4 times, for 2 wins and 1 minor placing.

Trainer

The name of the trainer or training partnership.

Gentleman Roy - Ben & Will & JD Hayes - The horse come from the Hayes stable.

J12m (jockey, last 12 months)

In this Essentials column we show the jockeys win percentage over the past 12 months when riding the race favourite.

By concentrating on the win percentage of race favourites we achieve a more equitable way of comparing jockeys. If one was to include all rides over the past 12 months there will be lesser light jockeys who ride a preponderance of longer priced horses and are therefore disadvantaged on that head-to-head comparison with higher profile jockeys riding many more shorter priced runners.

Where a jockey had ridden fewer than 10 race favourites in the past 12 months a minus sign (-) follows the win percentage.

Examples:

38 = 38% win strike rate on race favourite in the last year

22- = 22% win percentage on race favourites, but has had fewer than 10 rides

0 = zero wins on a race favourite in the past 12 months.

Where there is 0- it means the jockey has been unsuccessful on the race favourites ridden in the past 12 months, and there have been fewer than 10 such rides.

Given that 30% to 33% of race favourites win their race (the actual percentage depends on various circumstances) this statistic provides a quick insight into jockey ability when the playing field is (relatively) level.

Gentleman Roy - 32 - Mark Zahra's strike rate on the Starting Price Favourite in the last year is 32%.

T 12m (trainer, last 12 months)

In this Essentials column we show the trainers win percentage over the past 12 months when training the race favourite.

By concentrating on the win percentage of race favourites we achieve a more equitable way of comparing trainers. If one was to include all the trainers runner over the past 12 months there will be trainers with small and less well credentialled teams who train a preponderance of longer priced horses and are therefore disadvantaged on that head-to-head comparison with the bigger and better resourced stables that can produce many more shorter priced runners, and therefore achieve a higher overall win strike rate.

Where a trainer has had fewer than 10 race favourites in the past 12 months a minus sign (-) follows the win percentage.

Examples:

38 = 38% win strike rate with the race favourite in the last year

22- = 22% win percentage with the race favourite, but has had fewer than 10 runners

0 = zero wins with a race favourite in the past 12 months.

Where there is 0- it means the trainer has been unsuccessful with the race favourites in the past 12 months, and there have been fewer than 10 such runners.

Given that 30% to 33% of race favourites win their race (the actual percentage depends on various circumstances) this statistic provides a quick insight into jockey ability when the playing field is (relatively) level.

Gentleman Roy - 35 - The Ben & Will & JD Hayes stable strike rate with the Starting Price Favourite in the last year is 35%.

JT 12m (jockey/trainer combination in last 12 months)

In this Essentials column we show how well the jockey/trainer combination has performed with the race favourite over the past 12 months.

Where a jockey/trainer have combined with fewer than 10 race favourites in the past 12 months a minus sign (-) follows the win percentage.

Examples:

38 = the combination has a 38% win strike rate with the race favourites in the last year

22- = a 22% win percentage with the race favourite, but has had fewer than 10 runners

0 = zero wins with a race favourite in the past 12 months.

Where there is 0- it means the jockey/trainer combination has been unsuccessful with race favourites in the past 12 months, but there have been fewer than 10 such runners.

Gentleman Roy - 40 - When Mark Zahra and the Ben & Will & JD Hayes stable have combined  in the last year with a Starting Price Favourite a 40% strike rate has been recorded .

The Wizard Plus Essentials Report is available for all Australian thoroughbred race meetings covered by the Corporates and the Tab.

Wizard Ratings Results for Monday, August 19

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Header: w m h e =  Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

The Wizard Ratings Results report includes the results of the top-two rated Wrat runners. This information should provide a better guide to those subscribers who are interested in backing two runners in a race (where odds are acceptable) or anchor two runners for multiples etc. (Note: Over the long term the top-two Wrat runners have won around 43% to 46%, and the top rated runner 25% to 27%, of races on a seasonal basis)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed