Wizard Daily Report and Research - Wednesday, 21 August 2024.

• Wizard Plus Raceday Report (NEW)
• Wizard Ratings Results for Tuesday, August 13

Wizard Plus Raceday Report (NEW)

From tomorrow, Thursday, August 22, a new race morning report will be added to the Wizard Plus reports options.

The new report, Raceday, brings together the quantitative side of Wizard Plus (the four ratings options) and the market moves and rebalancing that has taken place overnight and in the early part of the morning.

The aim of Raceday is to identify those instances where market forces are indicating that one (or more) of the Wizard Plus ratings options may have a better chance of success than, say, Wrat just looked at on its own merits.

To explain what is contained in the Raceday report I have reproduced page 1 of yesterday's report, which shows the "qualifying runners" at three of the day's five meetings.

Now, what does "qualifying runner" mean?

What Wizard is doing in Raceday is examining the horses which are the 100 pointers on Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk, in light of the overnight and early morning market action. The horse which Wizard judges as having the most significant market action is the one identified in the report as the "qualifying runner" and is named in the "Horse" column.

In summary, we are looking for a horse that has a "double advantage"; it is rated to win the race on at least one of the four Wizard ratings options and the early market action is pointing to a strong showing in the race.

As well as identifying the dual-favoured horse, the Raceday report also includes information about that runner and its trainer and jockey.

Below is page 1 of the Raceday report for yesterday's racing.

The results for yesterday were probably better than the "expected" average, but it was a better than average day for the Wizard rated horses overall (Wrat was 31.6%) so that might have been a contributing factor. To provide a longer period review there is a summary of results later in this article.

To assist an understanding of the Raceday report an explanation of its content follows:

Race: The race number; an asterisk (*) here indicates that there is at least one first time starter in the race. (Note: On the relatively rare occasion where there are two "qualifying runners" in a race the race number will be repeated with both horses listed on separate lines.)

Tab: The Tab number of the runner; an asterisk (*) here means that the market action for the horse exceeded the threshold the Wizard applies. No asterisk would mean that it met the threshold but did not exceed it.

Horse: The name of the horse which is the Raceday "qualifying runner"; an asterisk (*) against a horse's name indicates that two horses "qualify" in the race.

Rating: If the horse is rated 100 on any of the four Wizard ratings, a letter denoting that is shown: W (Wrat), M (Wmod), H (Whcp), E (Wexpk).

Note: Where two asterisks (**) follow the ratings abbreviation/s this indicates that the horse is identified as having a possible extra advantage. Wizard analyses the ratings/market/form to look for those runners which might outperform the basic ratings/market assessment. These runners are FLAGGED by this double asterisk and are referred to as Raceday's Flagged runners.

Jockey: Jockey name; an asterisk (*) indicates a winning jockey back on and replacing a jockey who has not won on the horse.

2-5.9 Jockey: The number of winners ridden and strike rate for the last 12 months when the horse has started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90.

2-5.9 Trainer: The number of winners from the stable and strike rate for the last 12 months, when the horse has started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90.

2-5.9 Jck/Trn: The number of winners and the strike rate this jockey/trainer combination has recorded over the last 12 months, when the horse has started at odds between $2.00 and $5.90.

Horse TCDW: The horse's form history at the track, in the class, in the distance range, and on rain affected going.

Horse Form Cycle: Runs from a spell: With respect to runs from a spell it is often very useful to know if there is any pattern of success for the horse at this stage of its previous preparations. We limit this analysis to its previous campaigns where it has had as many starts from a spell as it will be having in this race.

If the horse is resuming after a spell, and has won at least once at this same stage of a previous preparation an F will be used to indicate this fact and a figure 1 will be used to indicate to which preparation it refers. (Note we look back for three preparations that have a suitable number of runs. If a horse has a preparation with insufficient runs for a match, we continue searching earlier preps to find one that does, until we have three preps assuming, of course, that a horse has that many preps.)

Examples:

Fxx1 = won first-up in its last prep but was unplaced (x) in its two previous preps

Fo1x = unplaced (x) first-up last prep, won first-up (1) two preps back, placed (o) first-up three preps back

If the horse is racing second-up, or further into its preparation, and has won at least once at this same stage in three previous campaigns a P will be used. The number preceding the P-code is the number of runs from a spell this start is coming into this race.

Example:

3 Pxo1 = third-up won third-up last prep, placed third-up two preps back, unplaced third-up three preps back.

Horse W-WinPerc: The number of career wins and win strike rate.

Race Class: The class of the race.

Race Distance: The distance of the race.

Prior to the release of this new Raceday Report the Wizard has been running a real-time test during this current month.

There will be further discussion of this Raceday Report later, but it is worth noting here that the FLAGGED runners are outperforming the "all runners" category and they could be an option for those Wizard subscribers who like to limit the number of bets on a day to what appear to be a well-qualified subset of Wizard's rated runners.

Raceday, will be available just after 9:00am every day and will take into account scratchings recorded by around 8:30am, and there will be an updated report later in the morning when final scratchings for W.A. have been processed.

Wizard Ratings Results for Tuesday, August 20

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'.

Header: w m h e =  Wrat (w), Wmod (m), Whcp (h), Wexpk (e)

The Wizard Ratings Results report includes the results of the top-two rated Wrat runners. This information should provide a better guide to those subscribers who are interested in backing two runners in a race (where odds are acceptable) or anchor two runners for multiples etc. (Note: Over the long term the top-two Wrat runners have won around 43% to 46%, and the top rated runner 25% to 27%, of races on a seasonal basis)

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results

Warren - Wiz-Ed