Wizard Daily Report Thursday, 5 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Performance Charts
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Wednesday, September 4

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Performance Charts

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is a selection of Wizard Plus Performance Charts. One chart is reproduced for each meeting, with an explanation following the 5 races. (Note: As this report focuses on the winning record of a horse, this chart is more relevant to those races with a reasonable amount of [revealed] winning form in runner's form history.)

COFFS HARBOUR

MCKAY

 NORTHAM

WAGGA

CRANBOURNE

Explanation of the Wizard Plus Performance Chart

Wizard Plus provides a snapshot overview of the superior (and inferior) performers in a race under a number of form factors using icons to highlight the best and worst performers.

The form factors highlighted, reading from left to right on the display, are:

• Overall strike rate (reflecting overall consistency)
• Distance range (including races at +/- 10% of this distance)
• Racetrack (the racecourse itself)
• Track and distance
• Jockey (record with the jockey engaged for this race)
• Runs from spell (record at this point in previous preparations)
• Rain affected tracks (includes soft and heavy going)

Three colours are used to reflect the level of past performance by each horse under these seven form factors and the success rate need to be included in this Performance display are:

• Green (minimum 33% win strike rate)
• Yellow (25% to 32% win strike rate)
• Red (less than 10% win strike rate)

Note: When you hover your cursor over an icon it will show you the actual win strike rate for the horse under that form factor.

(green) The 33% win rate was chosen to identify runners whose history to date under the form factor is as good as the win strike rate of race favourites overall.

(yellow) To lower the bar a little and show those horses that might not have reached the 33% level of performance a second benchmark has been included 25% to 32%. Historically, some 20% of races are won by the second favourite and so we have chosen to raise that bar and highlight those runners than have outperformed the second favourite benchmark of 20% and we have set a requirement of 25% - 32% to get a yellow jersey.

Note that for the green and yellow categories there is no minimum number of runs required a horse can qualify for inclusion with a record of 1 from 1 (green), or 8 from 24 (green), or 1 from 4 (yellow) or 6 from 24 (yellow). That changes when we consider the negative (red) category.

(red) If a horse has a win strike rate of less than 10%, and has 11 or more runs under that form factor, it will be highlighted using a red icon.

This means that horses with a form factor win record of between 10% and 24% will not have an icon in the Performance display. Essentially, they are given a neutral performance rating.

Again, the purpose of this snapshot Performance presentation is to quicky and easily highlight the superior and inferior runners in a race.

Finally, from this Performance screen you can quickly drill down further by clicking on the horses Form icon, on the left hand side of the race field.

Ratings and Raceday Results for Wednesday, September 4

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday qualifier (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results