Wizard Daily Report Friday, 6 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Essentials Wrat4 Report - Wyong
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Thursday, September 5

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Plus Essentials Wrat4 Report - Wyong

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof, and today the Wizard Freebie is the Wizard Plus Essentials Wrat4 Report.

The Essentials Wrat4 is a print that focuses on the top four Wrat runners, which facilitates a comparison of the data for the main chances in the race. Historically the top 4 Wrat runner have a combined win strike rate of nearly 70%. And with some judicious race elimination it is possible to improve that to better than 80%.

 Wizard Essentials Legend:

Tab: Racebook, Tab number.

Horse Name: Name of the runner.

Age/Sex: Age (years) and sex (colt, gelding, horse, filly, mare).

Form: Finish position at last four race starts (oldest to latest), x indicates 60 days spell.

RFS: Number of runs since a spell.

              Examples: 3 Px1o = 3rd run from spell, o placed (2nd or 3rd) third up last prep, 1st when 3rd up two preps back, x     unplaced when third up three preps back.

              Examples: 1 Fox1 = having first run from spell, 1st when first-up last prep, x unplaced when first-up up two preps back, o placed (2nd or 3rd) when first-up three preps back.

EOdds: Early pre-post market based on an average of odds offered by wagering operators, this market is adjusted to 120%.

Wrat: Wizard rating which is based on relative weights and adjusted for 8 form factors.

WMod: Rating is based on a regression analysis of 12 form factors.

WHcp: An almost pure relative weight assessment with minimal input from other factors.

WExpk: Assesses the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) rating from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation.

AOdds: Wizard assessed odds based on the predicted finish order and margins.

CarW%: The number of career wins and the overall win percentage.

WPS LY: The wins, (minor) placings, and starts in the last 12 months

TCDW: Track, Class, Distance, Wet; Capital letter indicates winner, lower case has placed.

BP: Barrier Position.

Pace: Possible in-running style and position; F (frontrunner), O (on-pace), M (midfield), B (backmarker)

FldStr: Field Strength figure measures (in kilograms) the difference between the quality of the field against which the horse raced last start and will confront in the forthcoming race.

Course: The wins minor placings starts record of each horse at todays racetrack.

Dist: The wins minor placings starts record of each horse at this distance, or over a distance within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Crse+Dis: The wins minor placings starts record of the horse at this course and the distance, or within 10% of the distance of the forthcoming race.

Filter: Analysis of key positives and negatives facing each runner in the race. The number shows the number of positives vs negatives and the horses ranking.

Neg: An analysis of negative factors facing each runner; the number indicates the number of negatives.

Jockey: Name of the jockey engaged to ride the horse; apprentice claim shown, (*) asterisk indicates past winning jockey on the horse replacing a non-winning jockey.

Joc/Hor: The record of the jockey when riding this horse.

Trainer: The name of the trainer or training partnership.

J 12m: The jockeys win percentage over the past 12 months when riding the race favourite.

T 12m: The trainers win percentage over the past 12 months when training the race favourite.

J-T 12m: How the jockey/trainer combination has performed with the race favourite over the past 12 months.

Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results for Thursday, September 5

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in Wizard Plus. (Note: The Wrat winners include the top rated and second top-rated winners.) The Raceday reported winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there are two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday qualifier (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results