Wizard Daily Report Friday, 20 September 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Magic (TOP) Report - Newcastle
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results, Thursday September 19

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Magic (TOP) Report - Newcastle

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today the Wizard Freebie is the new Wizard Magic (TOP) Report.

 Wizard Magic (TOP) Report (Trainer Out-Perform)

A key factor in the success of a racehorse is without doubt the ability of the horses trainer. Wizard has published a considerable amount of information about the success of individual trainers Australia-wide, and their ability to win disproportionately under special circumstances. For example, some trainers out-perform with first-up runners, or when backing up quickly, whilst others have an excellent record when their horses are rated to win (they deliver!)

Wizard has created a Report that focuses specifically on these trainer specialities. This is the Wizard Magic report.

There is a second important element in this Magic report, the monitoring of early market moves and wagering operators book rebalancing in the light of early betting and information received.

Taken together, these two factors trainer specialities and early market moves provide a unique insight into the possible outcome of a race.

There are several editions of the Wizard Magic Report.

Around 6:30pm on race eve an early edition (1-3) is made available with the full fields covered, with trainer specialities identified and Wizard pre-post early odds (set to 120% and based on an average of odds offered by leading wagering operators).

The next edition (2-3) is posted on the Wizard website just after 8:30am on race morning, again with the trainer specialities identified and Wizard pre-post early odds but now with early-morning odds (again reset to 120%), and the change in odds if the horse is firming by at least 3%.

The third edition (3-3) is posted after 11:00am on race morning, again with the trainer specialities identified, Wizard pre-post early odds, and now with mid-morning odds (again reset to 120%), and a second change in odds indicated if the horse is firming by at least 3%. So, horses which have firmed by at least 3% early-morning and/or mid-morning are identified.

As well as these full-field reports, Wizard also produces three abridged versions of Magic. These abridged versions feature only those horses where a trainer speciality is identified and/or where the horse has firmed by either 8:30am or 11:00am. (Note: if there are no qualifiers in a race then that race will be omitted from the Report.)

One thing to remember about the trainer specialities is that its history of success and profitability is linked to the odds range under which it is listed. For example, a trainer might be very successful with first-up runners when the horse is strongly fancied (2.00-5.90 odds range) but is not as successful when the runners are not fancied and start at longer odds. Horses can, of course, win when starting outside the indicated odds range, but that is not the situation our research has identified as being profitable over the long term. So, exceptions can definitely occur on a race-by-race basis, but cant be expected to occur as regularly or reliably long term.

Note: The version of the Wizard Magic Report published below is the Magic Abridged Report for Newcastle.

Wizard Magic (TOP) Report (Trainer Out-Perform) Explanation

Tab: Racebook, Tab number.

Horse Name: Name of the runner.

Jockey: The name of the jockey engaged to ride the horse; apprentice claim; an asterisk (*) indicates a past winning jockey on the horse replacing a non-winning jockey.

Trainer: The name of the trainer or training partnership.

2.0-5.9 Tr/Jk: The number of winners and the strike rate for this Trainer/Jockey combination in the $2.00 to $5.90 odds range over the last 12 months.

6.0-9.9 Tr/Jk: The number of winners and the strike rate for this Trainer/Jockey combination in the $6.00 to $9.90 odds range over the last 12 months.

2.0-5.9 MAGIC: The number of profitable years (from the past 6 years) based on starting price odds, the win strike rate over the full period, and the positive return over the full period, and one or two asterisks indicate that firming in the market was a determinant.

             Example: 3  39%  1.30: In 3 of the six years the Trainer Out-Performed (TOP) and was flat-stakes profitable, the overall win strike rate was 39%, and the level stakes return at starting price was $1.30, or 30% profit on investment.

             Example: 5  36%  1.25*: In 5 of the six years the Trainer Out-Performed (TOP) and was flat-stakes profitable, the overall win strike rate was 36%, and the level stakes return at starting price was $1.25, or 25% profit on investment, and the runner needed to firm in the betting from the opening raceday odds to the point 5 minutes before the start of the race.

             Example: 4  37%  $1.33**: *: In 4 of the six years the Trainer Out-Performed (TOP) and was flat-stakes profitable, the overall win strike rate was 37%, and the level stakes return at starting price was $1.33, or 33% profit on investment, and the runner needed to firm in the betting from approximately 30 minutes before race start time to the point 5 minutes before the start of the race.

6.0-9.9 MAGIC: The number of profitable years (from the past 6 years) based on starting price odds, the win strike rate over the full period, and the positive return over the full period, and one or two asterisks indicate that firming in the market was a determining factor.

             Example: The same explanation as for the 2.0-5.9 category will apply.

10-19.9 MAGIC: The number of profitable years (from the past 6 years) based on starting price odds, the win strike rate over the full period, and the positive return over the full period, and one or two asterisks indicate that firming in the market was a determining factor.

             Example: The same explanation as for the 2.0-5.9 category will apply.

Eodds PM: Early pre-post market based on an average of odds offered by wagering operators, this market is adjusted to 120%.

EOdds AM: An early-morning (2-3 edition) or mid-morning (3-3 edition) market based on an average of odds offered by wagering operators on race morning, this market is also adjusted to 120%. As there are two editions of MAGIC produced on race morning, we average two sets of available odds and show the percentage change from Eodds Eve twice.

Odds %Chg1: This figure shows by how many percent a runners odds have firmed when comparing the early-morning odds to Eodds Eve. Only when odds firm by 3% or more are they reported, as lower positives and all negative have been found to have less predictive value.

Odds %Chg2: This figure shows by how many percent a runners odds have firmed when comparing the mid-morning odds to Eodds Eve. Only when odds firm by 3% or more are they reported, as lower positives and all negative have been found to have less predictive value.

Rating WMHE: Indicates where the runner is rated in the W (Wrat), M (Wmod), H (Whcp), or E (Wexpk) rating options. Horses which are rated 3rd or better in at least one option are included in this column.

Cycle RFS: Number of runs since a spell.

             Examples: 3 Px1o = 3rd run from spell, o placed (2nd or 3rd) third up last prep, 1st when 3rd up two preps back, x     unplaced when third up three preps back.

             Examples: 1 Fox1 = having first run from spell, 1st when first-up last prep, x unplaced when first-up up two preps back, o placed (2nd or 3rd) when first-up three preps back.

Switch: An indication that the runner is switching from a distance range (D) over which it has not won to a distance range over which it has been successful, from  a racetrack (T) over which it has not won to a track over which it has won, from a non-winning age group (A) to an age group against which it has been successful, and from a track surface (S) on which it has not won to a surface on which it has won.

Tr/Jk Fil Neg: WJkTr: (T) indicates an out-performing trainer/jockey combination; (F) where key positives significantly outweigh negatives facing the runner; (N) no negative factor facing the runner.

Dist: number of career wins at the distance +/- 10% and the win strike rate at this distance range.

Wizard Ratings Results for Thursday, September 19

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Plus Raceday Report. The Wrat analysis applies to both Wizard and Wizard Plus. The Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk analysis applies to the ratings included in the Wizard Plus 'Plus Panel'. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.

Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results