Wizard Daily Report Wednesday, 2 October 2024
- Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Magic (TOP) Report
- Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results, Tuesday October 1
Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Magic (TOP) Report
Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today the Wizard Freebie covers the first two races of the Wizard Magic (TOP) Report for Cranbourne. Both the full and abridged Magic reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.
A key factor in the success of a racehorse is without doubt the ability of the horse's trainer. Wizard has published a considerable amount of information about the success of individual trainers Australia-wide, and their ability to win disproportionately under special circumstances. For example, some trainers out-perform with first-up runners, or when backing-up quickly, whilst others have an excellent record when their horses are rated to win.
Wizard has created a Report that focuses specifically on these trainer specialities. This is the Wizard Magic report.
There is a second important element in this Magic report, the monitoring of early market moves and wagering operator's book rebalancing in the light of early betting and information received.
Taken together, these two factors, trainer specialities and early market moves, provide a unique insight into the possible outcome of a race.
There are several editions of the Wizard Magic Report.
Around 6:30pm on race eve an early edition (1-3) is made available with the full fields covered, with trainer specialities identified and Wizard pre-post early odds (set to 120%, based on an average of odds offered by leading wagering operators).
The next edition (2-3) is posted on the Wizard website just after 8:30am on race morning, again with the trainer specialities identified and Wizard pre-post early odds but now also with early-morning odds (again reset to 120%), and the change in odds if the horse is firming by at least 3%.
The third edition (3-3) is posted after 11:00am on race morning, again with the trainer specialities identified, Wizard pre-post early odds, and now with mid-morning odds (again reset to 120%), and a second change in odds indicated if the horse is firming by at least 3%. So, horses which have firmed by at least 3% early-morning and/or mid-morning are identified.
As well as these full-field reports, Wizard also produces three abridged versions of Magic. These abridged versions feature only those horses where a trainer speciality is identified and/or where the horse has firmed by either 8:30am or 11:00am. (Note: if there are no qualifiers in a race then that race will be omitted from the Report.)
One thing to remember about the trainer specialities is that its history of success and profitability is linked to the odds range under which it is listed. For example, a trainer might be very successful with first-up runners when the horse is strongly fancied (2.00-5.90 odds range) but is not as successful when the runners are not fancied and start at longer odds. Horses can, of course, win when starting outside the indicated odds range, but that is not the situation our research has identified as being profitable over the long term. So, exceptions can definitely occur on a race-by-race basis, but can't be expected to occur as regularly or reliably long term.
Click here for a full explanation of the Magic (TOP) Report.
Wizard Ratings Results for Tuesday, October 1
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
| Tue 01.10.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER |
| GATTON | s5g4 | 1 2 - - 1 | 1 2 3 2. 1 | - - 3 1 - | 3 3 - - - | 1 1 3. 3. 1 | 2 - 2 3. - | 1 3 - - 1 | - - - - - | | 4 1 0 1 4 | 5 3 1 2. 0 |
| GRAFTON | h10 | - - - - - | 1 1 1 3 1 | 2 - - - - | - - - - - | 1 - - - 1 | - 3 2 - - | 2 - 1 - - | - - - - - | - - - - - | 2 1 2 0 2 | 4 1 3 0 0 |
| NEWCASTLE | s6s5 | 1 1 1 1. 1 | - - - - - | 1 2 1 1 1 | 1 1 1. 1. - | 2 1 - - - | 3 - 2 1 - | 1 2 2 - - | 1 1 2. - 1 | | 5 4 3. 4. 3 | 6 6 6. 4. 0 |
| TATURA | s5g4 | - - - - - | 1 1 1 2 - | 1 1 1 1 1 | 3 - 2 - - | 1 1 1 1. 1 | 1 3 1 2. 1 | - - 3 - - | 1 - - 2 - | | 5 3 4 2. 3 | 5 3 5 5. 0 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Wrat 16 33 | Wrat 20 33 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | 48.50% | 60.60% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Rday 12 33 | Rday no qual |
| | | | | | | | | | | | 36.40% | |
Header: WMHER = Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results