Wizard Daily Report Friday, 4 October 2024

• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Magic (TOP) Report - Sunshine Coast
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results, Thursday October 3

Wizard Magic (TOP) Report - Trainer Stats

A key element of the Wizard Magic report is the stats relating to the performance of a stable over the past six years, when the horse is running under certain conditions. Some trainers out-perform with first-up runners, or when backing-up quickly, whilst others have an excellent record when their horses are rated to win.

To obtain the Magic stats, Wizard researched every trainer in Australia and analysed the stables performance where the horse raced under the certain conditions. Special attention was paid to fitness, for example, so we looked at the record when the horses were first-up, second-up, through to 5th to 9th runs from a spell. We also analysed the performance of the stables runners when they were rated by Wizard to win the race; that is, how likely was the horse to run to form/market expectations. Numerous other circumstances were analysed. (Note: The condition which applied when a horse is highlighted as a Trainer-Out-Perform in the Magic report is printed under each race.)

When doing this trainer research, we were conscious of the fact that for some trainers the number of observations might be limited, especially as we ignored runners at longer odds; we concentrated on those runners that the betting market indicated had a winning chance. We ignored odds-on runners, and concentrated on the odds range $2.00 to $19.90, and then broke that down into three price categories, $2.00 to $5.99, $6.00 to $9.90, and $10.00 to $19.90.

So, to qualify as a TOP stat in a particular odds-range the stable needed:

•  a minimum number of runners in the sample
• a minimum strike over the 6 years; this varied according to the price range
• a minimum level of flat-stakes profitability over the 6 years
• at least 3 of the 6 years showing a level stakes profit

We further analysed the stats in terms of betting trends. Some stables did noticeably better when the runner firmed in the market on raceday, either from earlier betting or only if the firming occurred in the last 30 minutes before race start.

Looking at the first three races at Kembla Grange yesterday:

Race 1: Equilibrist -  4  35%  1.26**

• 4:  was profitable in 4 of the past 6 years under the conditions ($2.00-$5.99, 5th-9th up, 8-28 days)
• 35%: the wins strike rate was 35%
• 1.26%**: there was a 26% profit on turnover, and ** the runners firmed in the last 30 minutes of betting

Race 2: Satness 4 years profitable, 18% strike rate, 25% profit on turnover, no firming required.

Race 2: Audreys Lane 4 years profitable, 48% win rate, 30% profit on turnover, no firming required.

Race 2: Ausbred Nunya 3 years profitable, 18% win rate, 188% profit on turnover, no firming required.

Race 3: Rock Revolution 4 years, 18% win rate, 35% profitability, * runners firmed by race start time

It should be remembered that the strike rates and profitability reported occurred in the designated Starting Price odds range. The stable might have been successful in another odds range, but did not meet the basic conditions for inclusion. On the other hand, it might not have been successful in the other odds ranges.

The importance, and value, of the trainers Magic stats is that it gives you an insight into a particular area of expertise that seems to exist in the stable. In Magic only the Out-Performers are listed, so we are not swamped with a mass of stats.

Click here to read more about Wizard Magic Report.

Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Magic (TOP) Report - Sunshine Coast

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today the Wizard Freebie is the Wizard abridged version of the Magic (TOP) Report for Sunshine Coast. The full-field and abridged Magic reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.

Wizard Ratings Results for Wednesday, October 2

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.

 Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results