Jockey-trainer combination, Trainer's Notebook

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 12 November 2023.

  • This jockey - I wonder how ??? Country racing.
  • Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW

This jockey - I wonder how ??? (continued)

Yesterday we looked at a Group 1 race and asked the question - I wonder how this jockey performs ???

Today, we look at a country meeting in New South Wales and pose the same questions about a jockey, a trainer, and when they partner with a horse.

The meeting is at Warren, the jockey Clayton Gallagher, the trainer Brett Robb, and they are combining with Simply Xtravagant. The race is the Cotton Cup, an open handicap being run over 1600m.

In a wide range of daily reports produced for each meeting metropolitan, provincial, and country - Wizard Plus answers many questions.

There are eight jockey/trainer reports available, covering a multitude of factors: looking at the data overall and, importantly, narrowing it down to when the horse is in the market (when it has started at 10/1 or less) and has been expected to perform.

For example, in the Jockey/Trainer stats for the previous 12 months with odds 10/1 or less report we get the following details about Clayton Gallagher, Brett Robb, and when they combine with a horse. 

 

 FavFavallallregionregtracktrkdist +/-d+/-goodgdwetwethorsehse
 startsw%stsw%startsw%startsw%startsw%startsw%startsw%startsw%
Clayton Gallagher1433540121401211060671526620135233100
Brett Robb7930243182401854020513819105163100
Jockey/Trainer combo493711424114241100911692545223100

             Columns:

            Fav = starting price favourite

           All = all rides/runners

           Region = here country tracks

           Track = the racecourse, here Warren NSW

           Dist +/- = distance of the race +/- 10%

          Good = good track conditions

          Wet = wet track conditions (soft and heavy)

          Horse = the runner in this race

There is much that can be gleaned from these figures.

For example, the stable improves its strike rates with favourites to 37% when Gallagher is riding. Similar improvement can be seen in most other categories.

And there is more.

If you want to see how this jockey/trainer/combo has performed in the context of the betting market there is a report for that as well.

From the Wizard Plus Jockey/Trainer market stats for previous 12 months when 10/1 or less report we get:

 op favopfsp favspffirmerfrmeaseease
 startsw%startsw%startsw%startsw%
Clayton Gallagher19427143351592611814
Brett Robb11824793080239212
Jockey/Trainer combo5632493752294214

                       Columns:

                      Op fav = opening favourite at start of betting (35 minutes before race start)

                      Sp fav = starting price favourite

                      Firmer = firms from opening to starting price

                      Ease = eased from opening to starting price

From the above you can quickly see the importance of market action. Confirming favourite status improves the strike rate from 32% to 37% for the combination. If the horse firms from its opening quote by the close of betting it is twice as likely to win compared to when it eases (this stat refers to all relevant runners up to 10/1).

It only takes a minute or two to access these reports and your question has been answered. Query answered, time to continue with the horse assessment.

Research Trainers Trainers Notebook. NEW

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook continues with the top 20 trainers on NSW metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season. This report covers trainers ranked 12 to 20, with Matthew Dunn included to make up the final 10.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

                               Wizard - Trainer's Notebook -  Part 2 of NSW metropolitan rankings 2022-2023

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Peter, Paul Snowdendays since last run 8-14days since last run 180-365days since last run 180-365
 days since last win 15-21days since last win 8-21days since last win 15-21
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5weight change: +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 30-60
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rd finish last start: 1st
 runs from a spell: 2nd up  
    
Kris Leesdays since last run 22-28days since last win 8-14days since last run 1-7
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5previous win margin 3.1-5.0days since last run 180-365
 runs from a spell: 2nd upweight change: +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 8-14
   days since last win 22-28
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous win margin 3.1-5.0
   weight change: +5.0 higher
    
Matthew Smithinsufficient datadays since last run 180-365days since last run 1-7
  days since last win 8-14days since last win 22-28
  Field Strength -5.0 to -3.0Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
  Field Strength +3.0 to +5.0finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  finish last start: 1st 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
    
Brad Widdupinsufficient datadays since last win 15-21days since last win 15-21
  runs from a spell: 1st updays since last win 8-14
  runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength -2.5 to -1.0
  dist change: +101 to +300mruns from a spell: 2nd up
   weight change: 0.0 to +2.5
    
John Sargentruns from spell: first race startdays since last win 8-28days since last run 22-28
 weight change: 0.0 to +2.5days since last win 180-365days since last win 8-14
  Field Strength -3.0 or moredays since last win 180-365
  finish last start: 1stField Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  runs from a spell: 3rd upfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  runs from a spell: 4th upruns from a spell: 2nd up
   runs from a spell: 5th up
   runs from a spell: 6th up
    
David Paynedays since last run 8-14days since last win 8-14days since last run 1-7
 finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 30-60days since last win 30-60
 runs from a spell: 3rd upField Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -4.5 to -1.0
 weight change: -3.0 to -0.5finish last start: 1struns from a spell: 3rd up
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddist change:  +301 to +500m
  runs from a spell: 2nd up 
  runs from a spell: 5th up 
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5 
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 
  dist change:  +301 to +500m 
    
Michael Freedmaninsufficient datadays since last run 61-179insufficient data
  runs from a spell: 1st up 
    
John Thompsoninsufficient datadays since last run 61-179days since last run 180-365
  days since last win 30-179days since last win 30-179
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  runs from a spell: 1st upruns from a spell: 5th up
    
Nathan Doyleinsufficient datadays since last run 22-28days since last run 15-21
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 15-21
  previous win margin 0.1-3.0Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5
   finish last start: 1st
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
    
Matthew Dunndays since last run 8-14days since last run 180-365days since last win 8-14
 weight change: +0.0 to +2.5days since last win 8-28previous win margin 3.1-5.0
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  weight change: -3.0 or moredist change:  +301 to +500m
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 


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