Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 12 November 2023.
- This jockey - I wonder how ??? Country racing.
- Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook. NEW
This jockey - I wonder how ??? (continued)
Yesterday we looked at a Group 1 race and asked the question - I wonder how this jockey performs ???
Today, we look at a country meeting in New South Wales and pose the same questions about a jockey, a trainer, and when they partner with a horse.
The meeting is at Warren, the jockey Clayton Gallagher, the trainer Brett Robb, and they are combining with Simply Xtravagant. The race is the Cotton Cup, an open handicap being run over 1600m.
In a wide range of daily reports produced for each meeting metropolitan, provincial, and country - Wizard Plus answers many questions.
There are eight jockey/trainer reports available, covering a multitude of factors: looking at the data overall and, importantly, narrowing it down to when the horse is in the market (when it has started at 10/1 or less) and has been expected to perform.
For example, in the Jockey/Trainer stats for the previous 12 months with odds 10/1 or less report we get the following details about Clayton Gallagher, Brett Robb, and when they combine with a horse.
| Fav | Fav | all | all | region | reg | track | trk | dist +/- | d+/- | good | gd | wet | wet | horse | hse |
| starts | w% | sts | w% | starts | w% | starts | w% | starts | w% | starts | w% | starts | w% | starts | w% |
Clayton Gallagher | 143 | 35 | 401 | 21 | 401 | 21 | 10 | 60 | 67 | 15 | 266 | 20 | 135 | 23 | 3 | 100 |
Brett Robb | 79 | 30 | 243 | 18 | 240 | 18 | 5 | 40 | 20 | 5 | 138 | 19 | 105 | 16 | 3 | 100 |
Jockey/Trainer combo | 49 | 37 | 114 | 24 | 114 | 24 | 1 | 100 | 9 | 11 | 69 | 25 | 45 | 22 | 3 | 100 |
Columns:
Fav = starting price favourite
All = all rides/runners
Region = here country tracks
Track = the racecourse, here Warren NSW
Dist +/- = distance of the race +/- 10%
Good = good track conditions
Wet = wet track conditions (soft and heavy)
Horse = the runner in this race
There is much that can be gleaned from these figures.
For example, the stable improves its strike rates with favourites to 37% when Gallagher is riding. Similar improvement can be seen in most other categories.
And there is more.
If you want to see how this jockey/trainer/combo has performed in the context of the betting market there is a report for that as well.
From the Wizard Plus Jockey/Trainer market stats for previous 12 months when 10/1 or less report we get:
| op fav | opf | sp fav | spf | firmer | frm | ease | ease |
| starts | w% | starts | w% | starts | w% | starts | w% |
Clayton Gallagher | 194 | 27 | 143 | 35 | 159 | 26 | 118 | 14 |
Brett Robb | 118 | 24 | 79 | 30 | 80 | 23 | 92 | 12 |
Jockey/Trainer combo | 56 | 32 | 49 | 37 | 52 | 29 | 42 | 14 |
Columns:
Op fav = opening favourite at start of betting (35 minutes before race start)
Sp fav = starting price favourite
Firmer = firms from opening to starting price
Ease = eased from opening to starting price
From the above you can quickly see the importance of market action. Confirming favourite status improves the strike rate from 32% to 37% for the combination. If the horse firms from its opening quote by the close of betting it is twice as likely to win compared to when it eases (this stat refers to all relevant runners up to 10/1).
It only takes a minute or two to access these reports and your question has been answered. Query answered, time to continue with the horse assessment.
Research Trainers Trainers Notebook. NEW
Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook continues with the top 20 trainers on NSW metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season. This report covers trainers ranked 12 to 20, with Matthew Dunn included to make up the final 10.
For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.
The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.
Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.
Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Part 2 of NSW metropolitan rankings 2022-2023
| 2yo | 3yo | 4yo and older |
Peter, Paul Snowden | days since last run 8-14 | days since last run 180-365 | days since last run 180-365 |
| days since last win 15-21 | days since last win 8-21 | days since last win 15-21 |
| Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5 | weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 | days since last win 30-60 |
| finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | | finish last start: 1st |
| runs from a spell: 2nd up | | |
| | | |
Kris Lees | days since last run 22-28 | days since last win 8-14 | days since last run 1-7 |
| Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5 | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 | days since last run 180-365 |
| runs from a spell: 2nd up | weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 | days since last win 8-14 |
| | | days since last win 22-28 |
| | | finish last start: 1st |
| | | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd |
| | | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 |
| | | weight change: +5.0 higher |
| | | |
Matthew Smith | insufficient data | days since last run 180-365 | days since last run 1-7 |
| | days since last win 8-14 | days since last win 22-28 |
| | Field Strength -5.0 to -3.0 | Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5 |
| | Field Strength +3.0 to +5.0 | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd |
| | finish last start: 1st | |
| | weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 | |
| | | |
Brad Widdup | insufficient data | days since last win 15-21 | days since last win 15-21 |
| | runs from a spell: 1st up | days since last win 8-14 |
| | runs from a spell: 2nd up | Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0 |
| | dist change: +101 to +300m | runs from a spell: 2nd up |
| | | weight change: 0.0 to +2.5 |
| | | |
John Sargent | runs from spell: first race start | days since last win 8-28 | days since last run 22-28 |
| weight change: 0.0 to +2.5 | days since last win 180-365 | days since last win 8-14 |
| | Field Strength -3.0 or more | days since last win 180-365 |
| | finish last start: 1st | Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5 |
| | runs from a spell: 3rd up | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd |
| | runs from a spell: 4th up | runs from a spell: 2nd up |
| | | runs from a spell: 5th up |
| | | runs from a spell: 6th up |
| | | |
David Payne | days since last run 8-14 | days since last win 8-14 | days since last run 1-7 |
| finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | days since last win 30-60 | days since last win 30-60 |
| runs from a spell: 3rd up | Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5 | Field Strength -4.5 to -1.0 |
| weight change: -3.0 to -0.5 | finish last start: 1st | runs from a spell: 3rd up |
| | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | dist change: +301 to +500m |
| | runs from a spell: 2nd up | |
| | runs from a spell: 5th up | |
| | weight change: -3.0 to -0.5 | |
| | weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 | |
| | dist change: +301 to +500m | |
| | | |
Michael Freedman | insufficient data | days since last run 61-179 | insufficient data |
| | runs from a spell: 1st up | |
| | | |
John Thompson | insufficient data | days since last run 61-179 | days since last run 180-365 |
| | days since last win 30-179 | days since last win 30-179 |
| | Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0 | Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0 |
| | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd |
| | runs from a spell: 1st up | runs from a spell: 5th up |
| | | |
Nathan Doyle | insufficient data | days since last run 22-28 | days since last run 15-21 |
| | finish last start: 1st | days since last win 15-21 |
| | previous win margin 0.1-3.0 | Field Strength +3.0 to +4.5 |
| | | finish last start: 1st |
| | | runs from a spell: 3rd up |
| | | |
Matthew Dunn | days since last run 8-14 | days since last run 180-365 | days since last win 8-14 |
| weight change: +0.0 to +2.5 | days since last win 8-28 | previous win margin 3.1-5.0 |
| | finish last start: 2nd or 3rd | weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 |
| | weight change: -3.0 or more | dist change: +301 to +500m |
| | weight change: +3.0 to +4.5 | |