Wizard Daily Report Wednesday, 30 October 2024

• Improving Wizard Wrat Rating win strike rate (updated research result)
• Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials Wrat4 Report for Doomben
• Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results, Tuesday October 29

Improving Wizard Rating win strike rate (updated research result)

For more than two decades the Wizard rating (Wrat) has provided a consistent and reliable assessment of runners in gallops races run throughout Australia. The ratings have performed equally well across metropolitan, provincial, and country racing.

Year after year the Wrat has delivered a steady 26% result (+/- 1%, depending on the year), despite having to rate some 17,000 races annually, on all types of tracks, under all conditions.

In November last year the Wizard added three new ratings methodologies. The new ratings were intended as a Wrat supplement (Wmod) and complements (Whcp, and Wexpk).

Particularly useful has been the addition of Whcp and Wexpk that are classical, pure, relative weight assessments. These are designed to focus on the inherent ability of the horse. In themselves, these ratings methodologies do not have a high strike rate, but they are very informative for those who rely on ratings to identify the main chances in a race.

In March this year I decided to see if there was any synergistic benefit to be gained by combining them.

To research this question, I did the following:

• Processed each rating option (Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, Wexpk) individually for the 21-22, 22-23, 23-24 (to 27.3.24) seasons.
• Processed each combination of two ratings methodologies for each of the seasons.

Using the Wrat as the key Wizard rating, the synergistic impact of combining Wrat and the other three Wizard rating options produced the following results in March this year and then after updating for the full 2023-2024 racing season.

As you can see there was a slight reduction in strike rates once the 2024 late autumn and winter results were added into the mix. However, it is noteworthy that there is still a significantly improved strike rate achieved when combining Wrat with the other methodologies.

The research shows that there is likely to be a slight reduction in average odds when two ratings are combined, but it will not go anywhere near offsetting the percentage improvement in the win strike rate.

So, a combined Wrat qualifier is a Wrat 100 pointer that is also rated 100 by either Whcp or Wexpk, or both of them.

Finally, it is important to note the analysis for each category was done on races where there was a single 100 pointer first selection in that category and ignored a Wrat/Whcp or Wrat/Wexpk race which had more than one 100 pointer in the race.

 Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials Wrat4 Report for Doomben

Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today the Wizard Freebie is the Wizard Essentials Wrat4 Report for Doomben. All reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.

 Click here for a full explanation of the Wizard Essentials Report.

Wizard Ratings Results for Tuesday, October 29

The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.

 Header: WMHER =  Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday (R).

For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results