Better Betting - Specialise - Sydney Classes

Wizard Daily Report and Research - Thursday, 16 November 2023.

  • Better betting - Specialise - Sydney classes.
  • Research - Trainers  - Trainers Notebook.

 

Better betting - Specialise - Sydney classes

Over the past two days I have discussed the opportunities that await us on the provincial and country tracks, in addition to the well-known menu of races offered up at the metropolitan meetings.

For some, the knowledge that provincial and country racing can be rated as accurately as the metros, and that horses there have form histories that can be evaluated as confidently as their metro counterparts would have come as something of a surprise. This (new) information might have suggested the value of expanding their range of betting options. However, it also raises the issues of having access to the right information and having time to evaluate an ever-increasing number or races.

There needs to be a solution to this dilemma, and there is - specialise; either on one aspect, or a limited number of areas of special interest.

And there are various opportunities to specialise, given the amount of racing that confronts us on a weekly, even daily basis, in our search for potentially the most profitable opportunities.

Just some of these specialisation options are: geographical (local and preferred/limited interstate), level (metropolitan, provincial, country), trainers (but not individual jockeys), trainer/jockey combinations, types and classes of races, various form factors (specialising on horses with proven form cycles, distance specialists, speed mappers, etc), market movers (matching with form/ratings), switchers (distance, class, location). The list of possibilities is extensive.

Today, I will make a start on providing background information for those who might want to concentrate on certain types or class of race, either in one racing location or across more than one area.

First, Sydney metropolitan tracks. Just what type of races and classes are available for specialised attention during a racing season? The figures below will give you an insight into how many might be assessable. To make the specialisation option viable you do need a reasonable number of betting opportunities, so that you can eliminate non-viable races and still have an acceptable amount of betting action. Not much use just having 6 or 7 possible bets over a year!

 

                                    Race classes and types - Sydney Metropolitan - 2022-2023 racing season

Age.SexClassracesAge.SexClassracesAge.SexClassracesAge.SexClassraces
2yoGroup 132yoFGroup 233yoGroup 153yoFGroup 14
2yoGroup 232yoFGroup 333yoGroup 273yoFGroup 24
2yoGroup 35 Gr Total63yoGroup 383yoFGroup 33
2yoListed32yoFMaiden103yoListed73yoFListed1
 Gr Total14    Gr Total27 Gr Total12
2yoMaiden24   3yoMaiden423yoFMaiden12
2yoOpen23   3yoBM 0-6410   
      3yoBM 0-6812   
      3yoBM 0-7214   
       BM Total36   
            
            
            
3yo+Group 116   F&M MSGroup 12   
3yo+Group 214   F&M MSGroup 27   
3yo+Group 320   F&M MSGroup 39   
3yo+Listed18    Gr Total18   
 Gr Total68   F&M MSMaiden3   
3yo+Open23   F&M MSBM 0-643   
3yo+Maiden25   F&M MSBM 0-7254   
3yo+BM 0-6427   F&M MSBM 0-7828   
3yo+BM 0-72231    BM Total85   
3yo+BM 0-78122         
3yo+BM 0-8841         
3yo+BM 0-946         
 BM Total427         

 

If you are not interested in 2yo racing, and lukewarm about the 3yos, there is plenty of 3yo+ racing in Sydney alone.

Group racing for 3yo and older horses in Sydney, for example, delivers 68 possible races, mainly concentrated during the carnivals. Adding in the F&M and Mares Group races we have 86 in total. So, for those who want to concentrate on the higher end of the class spectrum there will be plenty of opportunities when you factor in the Group races in Melbourne, and other major metropolitan areas.

One of my long term subscribers to Superform, who has been successful over many years, will only bet on the Group races. He has developed an in depth understanding of what is required to win each of the various types of Groups, and made a close study of the trainers who successfully set their horses for these black type events. He concentrates on Groups 1,2, and 3 in Sydney and Melbourne, and Group 1 races only in Brisbane.

Then there is the sub-set of 3yo+ Benchmark handicaps. Here there are plenty of opportunities. In Sydney there is a limited range on the metro circuit, mainly BM72 and BM78, which makes the comparative analysis more straightforward than in Melbourne where, as you will see, a greater range is programmed.

Bottom line is, you can specialise and still have a satisfactory level of betting action. (And you can specialise in more than one category, of course.)

Wiz-Ed

 

Research - Trainers - Trainers Notebook.

Today the Wizard Trainers Notebook examines the trainers ranked 11 to 20 on Queensland metropolitan tracks in the 2022-2023 racing season.

For this notebook presentation I have broken down the overall stats into age groups (2yo, 3yo, 4yo and older) as there can be a difference in how these various age groups are prepared and perform. Also, I have limited the analysis to only those runs that were at odds of 10/1 or less, thereby removing the noise created by the longer odds runs which are really of no relevance in this exercise.

The results shown are only those where the trainer had an impact value of 1.3 or better, so a significant performance, and one can say under these conditions the stable has outperformed its expected result.

Note: It is possible to have more than one entry for a single factor. For example, the stable may have outperformed when backing up both within 8-14 days and 30-60 days.

Because the data is drawn from the Wizards national database, the form factors will be the same for trainers when they appear in the top trainer list in more than one state.

Wiz-Ed

                        Wizard - Trainer's Notebook - Trainers 11 to 20 in the Queensland 2022-2023 metropolitan premiership table

 2yo3yo4yo and older
Kris Leesdays since last run 22-28days since last win 8-14days since last run 1-7
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5previous win margin 3.1-5.0days since last run 180-365
 runs from a spell: 2nd upweight change: +3.0 to +4.5days since last win 8-14
   days since last win 22-28
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous win margin 3.1-5.0
   weight change: +5.0 higher
    
Jack BruceInsufficient dataInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14
   days since last win 15-21
   days since last win 30-60
   days since last win 180-365
   Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
   finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 3rd up
   runs from a spell: 6th up
   weight change: -3.0 to -0.5
    
Tony, Maddy Searsdays since last run 15-21days since last run 15-21days since last run 61-179
  days since last win 180-365Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0runs from a spell: 6th up
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
  runs from a spell: 2nd updist change: +101 to +300m
  runs from a spell: 3rd up 
  dist change: +101 to +300m 
    
Mark CurrieInsufficient datadays since last run 15-21days since last run 30-60
  finish last start: 1stdays since last win 15-21
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdField Strength -4.5 to -3.0
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5
  runs from spell: first race startfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  runs from a spell: 3rd upruns from a spell: 3rd up
  dist change:  -100 to +100mweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
    
Les Rossdays since last run 1-7days since last run 15-21days since last run 15-21
 days since last run 15-21days since last run 22-28days since last run 22-28
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-14days since last win 15-21
 finish last start: 1stdays since last win 61-179days since last win 22-28
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0days since last win 180-365
 previous win margin 0.1-3.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
 runs from a spell: 3rd upfinish last start: 1stfinish last start: 1st
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdruns from a spell: 3rd up
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0runs from a spell: 4th up
  runs from a spell: 3rd upweight change: -3.0 to -0.5
  runs from a spell: 4th updist change:  -300 to -101m
    
Desleigh ForsterInsufficient dataField Strength -2.5 to -1.0days since last run 22-28
  Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5days since last win 8-14
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rddays since last win 30-60
  runs from a spell: 5th upfinish last start: 1st
  weight change: +3.0 to +4.5weight change: -3.0 to -0.5
  dist change: +101 to +300mdist change:  -300 to -101m
    
Stuart Kendrickdays since last run 15-21days since last win 180-365days since last win 15-21
 Field Strength -5.0 or moreField Strength -5.0 or moreField Strength -5.0 or more
 Field Strength -4.5 to -3.0Field Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0
 Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5runs from a spell: 4th upruns from a spell: 2nd up
 previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0dist change:  +301 to +500mweight change: +3.0 to +4.5
 runs from a spell: 3rd up weight change: +5.0 higher
 runs from a spell: 4th up  
    
Toby, Trent EdmondsInsufficient datadays since last run 8-14days since last run 22-28
  days since last win 8-14days since last run 180-365
  days since last win 15-21days since last win 15-21
  days since last win 22-28days since last win 22-28
  Field Strength -2.5 to -1.0Field Strength -0.5 to +0.5
  finish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 1st
  previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0runs from a spell: 4th up
  runs from a spell: 2nd upweight change: 0.0 to +2.5kg
   weight change: +3.0 to +4.5
   dist change:  -300 to -101m
    
Lee FreedmanInsufficient dataprevious beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last run 8-14
  weight change: -3.0 to -0.5finish last start: 1st
   finish last start: 2nd or 3rd
   dist change:  -100 to +100m
    
Chris Andersondays since last run 8-14days since last win 22-28days since last run 30-60
 previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0days since last win 61-179days since last win 8-14
 runs from a spell: 2nd upField Strength +1.0 to +2.5Field Strength -5.0 or more
 weight change: 0.0 to +2.5kgfinish last start: 2nd or 3rdfinish last start: 2nd or 3rd
  previous beaten margin: 3.1-5.0previous beaten margin: 0.1-3.0
   runs from a spell: 2nd up
   dist change:  -300 to -101m

 



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