Wizard Daily Report - Saturday, 14 December 2024
- Insights from the Wizard Leaderboards for Trainers and Combos (NEW)
- Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials Wrat4 report for Newcastle
- Wizard Ratings and Raceday Results, Friday December 13
Insights from the Wizard Leaderboards for Trainers and Combos (NEW)
Each day The Wizard will publish on this page one of its Wizard Plus reports or special features, either completely or a part thereof. Today the Wizard Essentials Wrat4 report for Newcastle. All Wizard reports for all meetings for today are available now for subscribers.
Yesterday we looked at the new Wizard Jockey Leaderboard. Today we turn our attention to both the Trainer Leaderboard and the Jockey/Trainer Leaderboard. The meeting at Newcastle today is the one used for this discussion.
You will see that Ciaron Maher has many more winners compared to the next highest-ranked trainer. This is not only because his is a mega-stable, but as this table takes into account provincial wins throughout Australia his stat is "inflated" by his Victorian provincial results.
Noteworthy here is the record of Nathan Doyle. His strike rates compare favourably with larger, higher profile, and very successful stables. As Nathan is based at Newcastle it is likely that this success is partly due to a "home track" advantage. It is not uncommon to find this "home track" advantage reflected in the Trainer Leaderboard. Nathan's overall record is very sound, and his 41% winners on the provincial circuit in the <=5.90 odds range is excellent.
Turning now to "Team Hawkes" (Michael, Wayne & John) you can see that it scores very well over the 2-years at Newcastle (26% overall) compared to the 13% across all tracks over this period. And, at Newcastle, the team scores really well at 45% when the horses are "in the market" (<=5.90). Also, it is worth noting that in this odds-range its 2-years provincial record (34%) outscores its metropolitan record (29%).
Brad Widdup's stats show that he has performed equally well at both the provincial and metropolitan tracks when his runner is "in the market", 35% provincial and 33% metropolitan. A commendable effort.
The Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott stable and Nathan Doyle stables both out-perform at all-tracks in the 6-9.90 odds range. With Gai/Adrian it might be partly due to the stable stepping up horses quite sharply in grade, with that class rise resulting in a marking-down of the horse's chance. With Nathan it is more likely to reflect the stable's lower profile.
Looking at the Jockey/Trainer Leaderboard the last 12 months have been very kind to three combinations on the provincial circuit - Alysha Collett/Brad Widdup, Jean Van Overmeire/Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott, and Anna Roper/Kristen Bunhanan. Highlighted above are some very good results. Definitely worth noting and taking into consideration when assessing their runner's chance.
Daily Wizard Freebie - Wizard Essentials Wrat4 report for Newcastle
Wizard Essentials (WRat Top 4) - NEWCASTLE
Click here for an explanation of the Wizard Essentials Wrat4 report.
Wizard Ratings Results for Friday, December 13
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by Wrat, Wmod, Whcp, and Wexpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
| Fri 13.12.24 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Race 10 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER |
| CANBERRA | g4 | 1 1 2 - 1 | 1 1 - 1 - | 1 1 - - - | 1 1 2 2 1 | - - - - 0 | 2 3 2 1 - | 2 - - - - | | | | 4 4 0 2 2 | 6 4 3 3 0 |
| CANTERBURY | g4 | 1 1 2 3 1 | - - - 2 - | 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 2 3 3 1 | 1 1 - - 1 | 1 1 1. - 1 | 2 2 3 2. - | 3 2 - - - | | | 5 4 2. 1 5 | 6 7 3. 3. 0 |
| CRANBOURNE | g4g3 | 1 1 1 1 1 | 1 2 1 1 1 | 2 1 3 - 1 | 3 3 3 2 0 | 1 1 3 3. 1 | 2 3 3 2 - | 2 1 1 - 1 | 3 3 - 2 - | | | 3 4 3 2 5 | 6 5 3 5 0 |
| GEELONG | g4g3 | - - 2. - - | - 2 2 - - | - - - - - | 1 1 - 3 1 | 3 2 - - - | 3 - 3 - - | - - - 3. - | 2 - 1 3 - | | | 1 1 1 0 1 | 2 3 3. 0 0 |
| MOONEE VALLEY | g4g3 | - - 3 3 - | 1 1 2 3. 1 | 2 2 - - - | - - - 1 1 | 2 - 3. - - | 3 2 - 1 - | 3 3 - 3. - | 1 1 2 - 1 | | | 2 2 0 2 3 | 4 4 2 2 0 |
| MORPHETTVILLE | g4g3 | 3 - 3. - - | 3 - 3. - - | 1 1 3. - 1 | - - - 2 - | 2 3 - 2 - | - - - - - | 3 - - 1 - | - - - - 0 | | | 1 1 0 1 1 | 2 1 0 3 0 |
| MURWILLUMBAH | s7 | 1 1 2 - 1 | 2 3 - 1 0 | 1 1 2 3 - | 1 2 1 2 1 | 1 2 3 - - | 2 2 2 - - | 3 1 2 - - | 2 3 1 - 1 | | | 4 3 2 1 3 | 7 6 6 2 0 |
| PINJARRA | g4 | 1 1 3. 1 - | 1 1 1 3 1 | - - 2 1 - | 1 2 - - 1 | 1 3 3 - 1 | 3 3. - - 0 | 1 2 1. - 1 | 3 2 2. 2 - | | | 5 2 2. 2 4 | 5 5 4. 3 0 |
| SUNSHINE COAST | s5s6 | 2 2 1 3 1 | 3 2 - - - | - - - - - | - - - - - | 2 - - - - | 2 - 1 3 - | - - - - 0 | | | | 0 0 2 0 1 | 3 2 2 0 0 |
| TOWNSVILLE | s6s5 | 1 1 1 2 1 | 1 1 1 - - | - - - 1 - | 1 1 2 2 1 | 1 1 3 - 1 | - 3. 3 - - | - - 2 - - | - - - 3. - | - - 3. - - | 1 1 1 - 1 | 5 5 3 1 4 | 5 5 5 3 0 |
| WARREN | s5g3 | 1 1 - - 1 | 2 3 1 2 1 | 2 1 1. 1. 1 | - - - - - | 3 - - - - | 1 - 1. - 1 | - - 3 2. - | | | | 2 2 3. 1. 4 | 4 2 3. 3. 0 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | Wrat 32 87 | Wrat 50 87 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | 36.80% | 57.50% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | Rday 33 81 | Rday no qual |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | 40.70% | |
Header: WMHER = Wrat (W), Wmod (M), Whcp (H), Wexpk (E), Raceday (R)
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results
The day-by-day results so far this week:
| | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Week |
| Wrat one top rated | 35.7% | 18.2% | 19.4% | 41.9% | 36.8% | | | |
| Wrat top-two rated | 50.0% | 22.7% | 51.6% | 58.1% | 57.5% | | | |
| Wrat top-three rated | 71.4% | 31.8% | 74.2% | 67.7% | 72.4% | | | |
| Wrat top-four rated | 71.4% | 50.0% | 90.3% | 74.2% | 78.2% | | | |
| Raceday - one qualifier | 33.3% | 9.5% | 25.8% | 43.3% | 40.7% | | | |