Wizard Daily Report Friday, 28 March 2025
- Wizard MATRIX Report - Selectives - First Quarterly - Part 2 Preview
- Wizard MATRIX Outperforms - First 13 weeks Report - Part 1
- Wizard Ratings and Raceday and Matrix and Summary Results
Wizard MATRIX Report - Selectives - First Quarterly - Part 2 Preview
Tomorrow we will publish the first quarter's results of various ways the Wizard MATRIX report can be used to reduce the number of "carded" races to a more manageable number of possible betting races. Being overwhelmed with dozens of possible betting races is not what any sensible bettor wants to face - on any day of the week.
The primary aim of the Wizard is to provide subscribers with a daily a fact-based and user-friendly source of the best quality racing information. To make a subscriber's decision making easier (and more consistent) Wizard has pioneered the use of special-purpose reports.
The Essentials report is for the keen form analyst who needs quick access to the most update-to-date and reliable key statistical information.
The Raceday report's focus is on identifying which of the Wizard's four ratings assessment's top-rated runners are being best supported overnight and early-morning with corporates.
The Magic report's laser focus is on trainers and highlighting those runners that have a profile which matches a trainer-proven record of success in similar raceday circumstances.
The MATRIX report brings all this information together and fully integrates ratings/form/betting into one rating, MaxR.
Part 1 of the first Matrix Quarterly report (published yesterday) is reproduced below. Part 2 will be published tomorrow, highlighting some possible selective use of the information in Matrix, to reduce the number of possible bets, and to improve the overall strike rate.
Tomorrow the full results of these "selective options" for the first 13 weeks will be detailed.
By way of preview, here are the results for this week, so far:
| | Wrat1# | Wrat1% | MaxR# | MaxR% | RWM | RWM | Rday | Rday | Rday | Rday | Magic | Magic | Magic | Magic | R/M | R/M | R/M | R/M |
| | | | | | 2/3# | 2/3% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% |
| Monday | 7 | 71.4% | 7 | 14.3% | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual |
| Tuesday | 22 | 31.8% | 22 | 22.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 2 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% |
| Wednesday | 46 | 39.1% | 46 | 26.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 11 | 81.8% | 10 | 60.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% |
| Thursday | 29 | 27.6% | 29 | 27.6% | 4 | 75.0% | 8 | 62.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 2 | 100.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 2 | 100.0% |
(Note: A full explanation of the content, including headers, will be included in the full report tomorrow. Briefly; Wrat1# is number of races, Wrat1% is strike rate, RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic, R/M is Raceday and Magic.)
Wizard MATRIX Outperforms - First Quarterly Report - Part 1
Wizard has pioneered the provision of ratings/form-rich reports that aim to make selecting and betting more fact-based and user-friendly. The ultimate aim of this process has been to integrate into one report the key information from various Wizard reports.
With Wizard MATRIX we have created a winner-finding resource of unmatched value.
The Wizard Matrix report brings together key information from other Wizard reports, specifically - Essentials, Raceday, Watch, and Magic.
The ultimate aim of this process has been to integrate into one report the key information from various Wizard reports.
With Wizard MATRIX we have created a winner-finding resource of unmatched value.
The Wizard Matrix report brings together key information from other Wizard reports, specifically - Essentials, Raceday, Watch, and Magic.
A full explanation of the Wizard Matrix report can be found here.
The key ratings included in Matrix are the Wizard Weight Rating (Wrat), consistently successful since first published in the Wizard newspaper in 1988, the Wizard Raceday Rating, and the new Wizard Matrix Rating (MaxR) that finally integrates the key elements of weight-rating/form/market-moves into one ratings figure.
The following table shows the relative performance of these three key Wizard ratings since the Matrix report first appeared last December. Over this period the Matrix report has rated, analysed, and reported on, more than 4,200 races! The result: MaxR 100 pointer has outperformed the traditional WRat1 100 pointer by 18.5%.
Table 1 - Relative performance of three ratings options in Matrix.
| Weekly % | WRat1 | RDay | MaxR | WRat12 | MaxR12 |
| 17/3 - 23/3 | 27.9% | 32.4% | 36.4% | 46.7% | 54.8% |
| 10/3 - 16/3 | 27.1% | 30.0% | 34.9% | 46.4% | 48.3% |
| 3/3 - 9/3 | 26.8% | 33.1% | 32.3% | 46.7% | 50.5% |
| 24/2 - 2/3 | 23.3% | 24.1% | 28.6% | 39.7% | 45.5% |
| 17/2 - 23/2 | 30.1% | 34.5% | 32.5% | 48.0% | 49.1% |
| 10/2 - 16/2 | 31.6% | 36.6% | 36.3% | 50.7% | 53.3% |
| 3/2 - 9/2 | 23.3% | 30.0% | 33.7% | 46.0% | 47.9% |
| 27/1 - 2/2 | 31.5% | 33.5% | 28.2% | 47.1% | 47.9% |
| 20/1 - 26/1 | 30.0% | 32.0% | 34.7% | 46.3% | 49.4% |
| 13/1 - 19/1 | 25.1% | 26.8% | 26.7% | 44.2% | 45.5% |
| 6/1 - 12/1 | 24.2% | 26.6% | 23.1% | 40.4% | 42.4% |
| 30/12 - 5/1 | 29.5% | 32.0% | 32.5% | 49.7% | 47.9% |
| 23/12 - 29/12 | 27.5% | 32.8% | 34.8% | 48.0% | 53.1% |
| 13 weeks | 27.0% | 31.1% | 32.0% | 45.2% | 48.9% |
The results above show the weekly strike rates for the three ratings for each of the 13 weeks that Matrix has been available to Wizard users. The top-rated runner strike rates are shown in WRat1 (Wizard Rating 100 pointer), RDay (Raceday Qualifier), and MaxR (Matrix 100 pointer). The top-two rated runners strike rate is shown in WRat12 and MaxR12.
The highest weekly strike rate for each option is colour coded: blue for the single top-rated option, and green for the top-two rated option.
Historically, the Wizard 100 pointer has recorded an annual strike rate between 25% and 27%, so the 18.5% improvement by MaxR is based on the top of the WRat historical range. Using the average of 26% it would be a 22.2% improvement. When every percentage point counts this is significant.
To further illustrate the relative performance of the ratings options, the follow table shows on how many days of each week a particular ratings option scored the highest strike rate. (Note: On some days two ratings options tied for first spot, and they were treated as equal first.)
Table 2 - Daily performance of three ratings options in Matrix
| Weekly | WRat1 | RDay | MaxR 100 | WRat12 | MaxR12 |
| 17/3 - 23/3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 10/3 - 16/3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 3/3 - 9/3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 24/2 - 2/3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 17/2 - 23/2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10/2 - 16/2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3/2 - 9/2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 4 |
| 27/1 - 2/2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 20/1 - 26/1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 13/1 - 19/1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 6/1 - 12/1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 30/12 - 5/1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 23/12 - 29/12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Days Overall | 14 | 35 | 48 | 36 | 62 |
From the above it is obvious the Wizard approach of integrating overnight and early-morning market information into the ratings/analysis algorithm is a winner. A time-honoured weight ratings approach outperformed on 14 days, whilst a fully integrated Wizard approach did better on 48 days.
Backing the top-two rated runners, the integrated approach outperformed on an almost 2 to 1 on a day basis and as shown in Table 1 the weekly result was 12 to 1 in favour of MaxR12.
There is one basic Matrix report, which is posted to the everyrace website twice on race morning (to allow for scratchings to be processed).
- around 10:30am (incorporating scratchings for NSW, Vic, Tasmania, Queensland, NT)
- around 12 noon (updated for scratchings from W.A.)
There are three variations of the Matrix report.
- Wizard Matrix (First Four)
- Wizard Matrix (Full Field)
- Wizard Matrix (Abridged)
Wizard Ratings and Raceday and Matrix and Summary Results
The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer and the MaxR top-two this week so far. The (4 weeks) column shows the results for the four weeks prior to the current week and the 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season.
The results summary is now colour coded so that it will be easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis.
| Week ending 30/3 | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Week | 4 weeks | 2023-2024 |
| Wrat one top rated | 71.4% | 31.8% | 39.1% | 27.6% | | | | | 25.9% | 26.0% |
| Wrat top-two rated | 71.4% | 36.4% | 56.5% | 41.4% | | | | | 44.3% | 42.7% |
| Wrat top-three rated | 71.4% | 59.1% | 65.2% | 51.7% | | | | | 57.8% | 57.0% |
| Wrat top-four rated | 71.4% | 68.2% | 73.9% | 65.5% | | | | | 69.0% | 67.7% |
| Raceday - one qual. | 80.0% | 27.2% | 38.6% | 32.1% | | | | | 29.4% | -- |
| MaxR - Matrix 100 | 14.3% | 22.7% | 26.1% | 27.6% | | | | | 32.9% | -- |
| MaxR top-two rated | 42.9% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 48.3% | | | | | 49.6% | -- |
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
| Thu 27.03.25 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER |
| ALBANY | g4 | - - - 3 - | 3 3 2. - - | 2 - 3 - - | - - - 2 - | 3 2 - - - | - 2 - - - | - - 3 - - | | 0 0 0 0 - | 1 2 1. 1 0 |
| ARARAT | g4g3 | 1 1 1. 1 1 | - - - - - | 1 2 1 3 1 | 1 1 - - 1 | - 2 - 1 - | - - - 2. - | - - - - 0 | - - 3 - - | 3 2 2. 2 3 | 3 4 2. 3. 0 |
| GOSFORD | s5s6 | 1 2 1 1 1 | 1 1 1 2. 1 | - - - - - | 2 1 1 3 1 | | | | | 2 2 3 1 3 | 3 3 3 2. 0 |
| PAKENHAM | g4 | 1 2 1. 1 1 | 2 3 - - - | 1 1 1. 1 1 | 3 - 3 2. - | 3 - 2. - - | 1 1 - - 1 | 2 - 1 1. - | - - 3. 2 - | 3 2 3. 3. 3 | 5 3 4. 5. 0 |
| TOWNSVILLE | h8 | - - - - - | - - - - - | | | | | | | 0 0 0 0 - | 0 0 0 0 0 |
| | | | | | | | | | | Wrat 8 29 | Wrat 12 29 |
| | | | | | | | | | | 27.60% | 41.40% |
| | | | | | | | | | | Rday 9 28 | Rday no qual |
| | | | | | | | | | | 32.10% | |
Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results